[ESPN Insider] NBA draft debate: Is RJ Barrett a future star? - Givony & Schmitz - Full Article
How good will
RJ Barrett be in the NBA, and where is he likely to land?
With the
2019 NBA draft three weeks away, Barrett is perhaps the most interesting prospect in this class.
Is he going to develop in a big, shot-creating All-Star who shouldn't have slipped past No. 2? Or is that too lofty of a ceiling?
Our NBA draft experts dive into the questions surrounding Barrett, starting with what the
New York Knicks might do with the No. 3 pick, where Barrett is expected to be available.
Is there any chance the Knicks don't take Barrett at No. 3?
Givony: There are few sure things in any draft.
After I reported a couple of weeks ago from the combine that the
Memphis Grizzlies informed interested parties that they intend to select Murray State's
Ja Morant at No. 2, Memphis has been sending out some mixed messages. The Grizzlies' ownership group is still telling people around the league the team is locked in on Morant, but the front office has requested to have Barrett in for a private workout -- something he has declined but might revisit over the next three weeks, sources told ESPN.
Barrett is scheduled to work out for New York on June 10. As I reported from the combine: Although sources say Barrett would be excited about landing in New York, the Knicks planned to do their due diligence by making calls on trade options and evaluating other prospects in the top 10.
One possibility is clear: The No. 3 pick would be a valuable piece in any potential
Anthony Davis trade talks with the
New Orleans Pelicans. Davis met with the Pelicans' new executive vice president, David Griffin, on Wednesday to discuss the future of the franchise,
according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
And in recent weeks, the Knicks have been considering a number of alternative scenarios with the No. 3 pick that don't involve Barrett, according to multiple sources.
New York has explored the possibility of trading back in the lottery, sources told ESPN, perhaps to acquire pieces that better complement potential high-volume All-Star free agents (such as Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving). Trading the No. 3 pick for the Atlanta Hawks' two first-rounders (Nos. 8 and 10) is under consideration by the Knicks, one source said. This is a similar package to the one Dallas used to move up in last year's draft -- trading the No. 5 pick and a top-five protected pick (which ended up being No. 10) to select Luka Doncic at No. 3. A move like this likely wouldn't happen until the draft was actually underway, as both teams would want to know which players are actually available with the No. 8 pick before consummating a trade.
In addition, the Knicks are looking closely at other draft prospects who might be in play at No. 3 but could also very well fall later in the top 10, including
Cam Reddish,
Jarrett Culver,
Coby White and
Nassir Little.
Though Barrett looked like the clear choice for the Knicks at No. 3 following the lottery -- he's a great fit with the roster and should be ready for the big stage in New York -- there's still plenty left to be determined.
Is Barrett a clear No. 3 prospect?
Givony: Mike, what's your read on Barrett as a prospect? Is he a clear No. 3, and do you think he should be in the mix at No. 2?
Schmitz: While I won't go so far as to say Barrett should be in the conversation for No. 2 overall, anyone who doesn't see him as the third-best prospect is wildly overthinking this.
Barrett is (and has always been) at his best attacking the rim, putting pressure on the defense and using his 6-foot-7, 210-pound frame to get into the paint and finish with strong body control. But because of Duke's inability to surround him with shooting -- 327th in the NCAA in 3-point percentage, according to
Kenpom.com data -- he looked clunky trying to bully-ball his way to the cup.
Just look at this: (Image of Barrett barreling into 5 NC defenders in the paint)
Barrett could have done a much better job of making the simple kick-out pass and finding a smoother balance between scoring and playmaking, but for a physical, downhill driver, this spacing is far from ideal. North Carolina was able to commit all five defenders in the paint, with Coby White helping off the strongside corner -- something Barrett will rarely see in the NBA -- to take the charge.
Here's a glimpse of the lack of shooters Barrett had to choose from: (Image of spaced floor with - Tre Jones 26%, Cam Reddish 33%, Zion Williamson 33%)
Even with Zion Williamson at the 5, Barrett still had no room to operate. Tre Jones is close to a non-shooter at this stage, Jordan Goldwire is most certainly a non-shooter and Reddish is as streaky as they come. Barrett didn't display trust in his teammates consistently, and spacing like this is a big reason why he led the NCAA in charges, turned the ball over at a 19.5 percent rate in pick-and-roll and ranked in the 44th percentile as a finisher in the half-court. Barrett could have made a better play than barreling in for a charge here, but it's clear he wasn't put in the best position to play to his strengths at Duke.
What does Barrett look like when he has a spaced floor? Opportunities were sparse, but here's an example of the much more traditional spacing Barrett figures to see in the NBA.
He's likely to have an NBA-caliber rim-protector patrolling the paint rather than Gonzaga's Zach Norvell, but the lane should have more room.
Even against an pro-level athlete in
Rui Hachimura (though not a great defender), Barrett is able to get downhill to his left and use his impressive stride length to step around the Gonzaga forward, getting to the front of the rim for the and-1.
There's no question Barrett has to improve as a perimeter shooter to maximize his potential long term. Becoming a more willing passer will also allow him to unlock his playmaking potential. There are questions on the defensive end of the floor, as well, despite his tools.
But Barrett's so-so efficiency and oftentimes clumsy shot-creation moments were more a product of his circumstances rather than clear-cut flaws. Barrett's greatest strengths -- pushing in transition, attacking the rim with physicality and utilizing long strides -- were hidden by Duke's lack of spacing. The Canadian lefty should quickly show NBA scouts and fans alike why he was considered the No. 1 pick coming into his freshman season with all the makings of a longtime All-Star, so long as he's surrounded by shooters at the next level.
JG, what's your take?
Givony:
I'm a little surprised by how quickly everyone seems to have settled on the fact that Barrett is clearly an inferior prospect to Morant -- a statement you widely hear among NBA folks. It's not something I actually agree with, personally. If I were making the pick for Memphis, I would be all over Barrett at No. 2, not just because of his positional fit on the roster alongside Mike Conley (although that helps), but also because of Barrett's overall talent level and modern NBA qualities.
These NBA playoff games have been eye-opening. The league's best teams have a big guard/wing in Barrett's mold who is asked to carry a huge amount of playmaking responsibility, both in the half-court and in the open floor. Having more size on the floor gives you clear advantages defensively with the amount of switching every team does. It also leads to numerous cross-matching situations in which the opposing team is forced to decide between giving up a good look early in the clock -- death in today's NBA game -- or having the wrong defender matched up with a team's best player, which is often just as bad.
Barrett is ideally suited for that big wing role with his ability to bust out in transition and make reads out of pick-and-rolls, as he's a much better athlete than he gets credit for. According to P3 sports science data from last year, Barrett tested very well relative to NBA athletes in acceleration and posted elite deceleration metrics.
He's a freight train once he gets downhill. He brings elite body control, and he's as aggressive as they come seeking out contact in the paint. He's going to continue to improve his pull-up jumper as his career moves along due to his outstanding work ethic, as he has already made huge strides in that area over the past few years. Combine that with his court vision, scoring instincts, competitiveness and the fact that he still hasn't turned 19 years old, and you have everything you look for in a modern NBA prospect.
Mike, like you pointed out, this Duke team was poorly constructed, which made it much easier for opposing defenses to pack the paint and force Barrett to navigate tight spaces while not possessing elite shooting ability himself. He's going to look much better with the ball in his hands surrounded by NBA shooters, especially as his feel for how to play to his strengths evolves into his 20s.
How strong do you think the case is for Barrett at No. 2 as a better fit for the current game than Morant?
Schmitz: In theory, there's a case. You have to believe Barrett is going to be willing to make the right reads out of pick-and-roll and actually capitalize on his defensive tools -- two things he didn't do at Duke, even if circumstances weren't ideal. If I felt comfortable projecting Barrett as an above-average shooter, consistently willing defender and unselfish playmaker, he'd surely be neck-and-neck with Morant for the No. 2 spot.
But he's never struck me as a natural shooter, hitting a career 30.8 percent from 3 on 341 attempts and 65.0 percent from the free throw line on 529 attempts, according to our prospect database. Although I think he's an underrated passer who can make ball-screen reads most players his size can't, he was dubbed the Maple Mamba at a young age for a reason. He'll always be wired to score in my book, as that's been his mentality his entire career.
Defensively, I like the fact that he can slide up and switch onto bigger combo forwards or gap guards and contest on the perimeter. But Barrett has never been the most disciplined or eager defender both on and off the ball, with steal and block rates both in the bottom 25 among our top 100 draft prospects.
I do think there's some merit to the argument that Barrett is a more modern fit, with the traditional point guard position changing drastically.
James Harden initiates his team's offense. Giannis functions as a primary shot-creator for the
Milwaukee Bucks quite regularly.
Kawhi Leonard generates the majority of Toronto's half-court possessions. When healthy, Kevin Durant can function almost as a jumbo scoring guard.
On top of that, I love Barrett's productivity, confidence and winning mentality, and I do believe he's being slept on as a potential All-Star regular. But I personally see Morant as the more special talent. Barrett doesn't have the same off-the-dribble, shot-making prowess of those aforementioned stars.
Although slight and wiry, Morant is a more functional athlete, better decision-maker, superior facilitator, stronger ball handler, more capable shooter and more explosive finisher. He's easier to build around and loaded with more upside. While clearly better on the ball, let's not forget the fact that Morant actually shared the backcourt with OVC player of the year Jonathan Stark as a freshman and still put together an efficient season while helping the Racers to the NCAA tournament. The fact that Morant is likely a (poor) one-position defender at this stage and ball-dominant offensively sways in Barrett's favor in terms of modern fit, but I'd bet on a
De'Aaron Fox/
Trae Young hybrid guard with star potential as opposed to the versatility that comes along with a player like Barrett.
As we're seeing with rising lead guards such as Young and Fox -- or more established ones in
Damian Lillard and
Kemba Walker -- there's clearly still a market for shot-creators under 6-foot-5. Morant has a rare combination of scoring, facilitating and shifty explosiveness that even the league's best guards don't possess. To me, his upside is through the roof, and he has the star mentality and fearlessness to shoulder the responsibility that comes along with maximizing that potential.
What do you think is the best case for Barrett to end up developing into one those big, efficient shot-creators?