Is there a housing bubble?
- Thread starter fishfry600
- Start date
So for those who don't think this is a bubble, you don't think increased prices will drive increased home construction, driving a supply glut which forces home values back to a reasonable range? I'd rather not be the guy who bought a home in 2006.
Everyone should pull out an excel spreadsheet and consider the pros/cons of buying vs renting, taking into account the opportunity cost of the capital that's dropped on the down payment, as well as money lost to interest and tax, vs expected rent increases. It's always dependent on the individual. Make sure the math works for you.
Everyone should pull out an excel spreadsheet and consider the pros/cons of buying vs renting, taking into account the opportunity cost of the capital that's dropped on the down payment, as well as money lost to interest and tax, vs expected rent increases. It's always dependent on the individual. Make sure the math works for you.
I've been in the House Hunt since January. My thoughts, no. Here's why:
- The Covid Recession was a K-Shaped recovery. Alot of people fell off in 2020 but people came up through investing in stocks, working OT, and saving money because they were working from home. Besides Foreign/Domestic investors, cash buyers, there is a surplus of qualified buyers using conventional loans, 770+ Credit Scores, putting 20%+ down, offering appraisal gaps, waiving inspection (which I would never do).
- Even these people are losing multiple-offer bids. Not on 1 house, maybe 5, 10 or more depending on they city before they finally get an offer accepted. So these are not the typical people who will go into foreclosure like 2008-2009. People with FHA loans, 3-5% down are barely getting their offers looked at unless its a condo/townhome.
There are more but those are the top reasons, I need to get back to work
- Foreclosure moratorium is going until 2022. Between Summer 2021 and then there will be plans in place to allow those people to refinance to a 40-Year mortgage with no penalties
- New construction is flabby and sick right now. Most communities are only releasing a few lots at a time, waiting list is packed, and lumber shortage has driven prices up. There is no incentive for builders to speed up since they are making record profits with this shortage. It's going to be very hard to get a new construction Single Family home under 300k within a major city going forward
The bolded only applies to builders who have significant inventory of unsold homes. Market dynamics will change that pretty soon. The only factor that may change things is the price of construction material.
The foreigners are going to continue to prop up the market and inflate the costs because America is the #1 tax haven country in the world
Mordith
H.E.N.R.Y.
Not necessarily. Historic low interest rates and inventory shortage means demand is high and supply is low.
no, appreciation might become stagnant though but prices will not go down.
calixprynce
...
and that rent in Killeen still prolly "cheap" to renters. best rent prices in Central TX but a shythole city (full of fine hoes, i'll add)
Hopefully it is a bubble. shyt is out of control. Uncle sam kept it from bursting this go round 
MajesticLion
Veteran
When you have people with resources competing with people with fewer resources for a limited commodity, who's going to end up with that commodity?
- if you don't own/maintain/reinvest in it, it isn't yours
- if you don't want other people to buy it, don't sell it to them
I was ready to go with a builder outside the major city only to find out that us and like 4 other families were the first in the community to be over 300k. I’m not trying to have the most expensive house in the community and I’m not trying to come out of pocket 10s of thousands of dollars for the appraisal gap so I decided not to pursue. Right now we are waiting on another community closer to the city to open up hoping there aren’t anymore increases to the base price. At least the new communities closer to the city the existing homes are already going for 330-450k so I shouldn’t have to worry about appraisal issues. If you are going new build buy now, them prices ain’t coming down anytime soon even if lumber prices come down. If you only want an existing home, if you can afford it and plan to be in the home for 10+ years, go for it. Otherwise wait it out.
Goat poster
KANG LIFE
Breh
they doing just as much in Canada,UK, Australia, New Zealand ect...
it’s a worldwide problem my guy.
Ozymandeas
Veteran
Yes. You buy when there’s a recession and the entire world is scared to spend money. That goes for anything. You get cheaper deals and better terms. Think of debt cycles like a pendulum swinging back and forth from low interest rates, weak currency, growth, bubbles and inflation to high interest rates, strong currency, declines, recession and deflation.
Kyle C. Barker
Migos VERZUZ Mahalia Jackson
I have no idea but I do know that the housing inventory is crazy low and the government has been putting forth a lot of measures (low interest, possible $15k tax credit) to increase the demand.
Low supply + high demand = these crazy increases in prices.
The only question I would ask myself now is how long can the supply remain this low. Once the supply increases people will have the choice to simply bid on another house instead of trying to compete with 20 other buyers
Low supply + high demand = these crazy increases in prices.
The only question I would ask myself now is how long can the supply remain this low. Once the supply increases people will have the choice to simply bid on another house instead of trying to compete with 20 other buyers