If any NBA team comes back from 0-3

Professor Emeritus

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Blazers almost did it to the Mavs back in 2003.


I was way too busy with work at that stage of my life, remembered how that series played out but don't remember the games at all. Was shocked to look now and see Scottie and Sabonis were both still playing. Could have sworn they were retired by then.

I remember as a Blazer fan it looked really cool to imagine it maybe happening but we never really thought it was gonna happen. Just expected the other shoe to drop and the Mavs to close it out sooner or later.
 

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I can't believe this hasn't happened yet. There were plenty of teams who came back 0-2 and this is only one more game to come back from

It's a big difference. Even if the outcomes were random chance, winning 4 out of 4 (3% likelihood) is much more difficult than winning 4 out of 5 (19% likelihood). On top of that a lot more teams have had the chance to come back from 2-0 down (442 chances in NBA history) than the chance to come back from 3-0 down (146 chances in NBA history).

So coming back from 2-0 down is 6x easier to do and teams have had 3x as many chances to do it. Combine those two mathematically, and even if the outcome of NBA games was completely random, we would have expected a team down 2-0 to come back and win 83 times in NBA history, but a team down 3-0 would only come back and win 4 times in NBA history.


Of course, outcomes aren't random. A team down 2-0 usually got beat twice on the road. They might be an equally matched team, they know they just have to take care of business themselves and it'll be back to 2-2. All they have to do is win ONE game on the other team's home floor and they got that shyt.

Whereas a team down 3-0 didn't just lose two road games, they lost a home game too. A team like that is almost always outmatched. You rarely lose 3 straight to start the series unless you're legit inferior. So of the 146 teams that were down 3-0, probably 120 of them had zero shot at winning the series. Only 20-30 teams were even good enough to have a chance at all. And those teams not only had to take care of both of their remaining home games, but they had to win BOTH games on the road. That's a much taller order.
 

FunkDoc1112

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It's a big difference. Even if the outcomes were random chance, winning 4 out of 4 (3% likelihood) is much more difficult than winning 4 out of 5 (19% likelihood). On top of that a lot more teams have had the chance to come back from 2-0 down (442 chances in NBA history) than the chance to come back from 3-0 down (146 chances in NBA history).

So coming back from 2-0 down is 6x easier to do and teams have had 3x as many chances to do it. Combine those two mathematically, and even if the outcome of NBA games was completely random, we would have expected a team down 2-0 to come back and win 83 times in NBA history, but a team down 3-0 would only come back and win 4 times in NBA history.


Of course, outcomes aren't random. A team down 2-0 usually got beat twice on the road. They might be an equally matched team, they know they just have to take care of business themselves and it'll be back to 2-2. All they have to do is win ONE game on the other team's home floor and they got that shyt.

Whereas a team down 3-0 didn't just lose two road games, they lost a home game too. A team like that is almost always outmatched. You rarely lose 3 straight to start the series unless you're legit inferior. So of the 146 teams that were down 3-0, probably 120 of them had zero shot at winning the series. Only 20-30 teams were even good enough to have a chance at all. And those teams not only had to take care of both of their remaining home games, but they had to win BOTH games on the road. That's a much taller order.
The only way I could ever see a team coming back from 0-3 is if one of those losses was either a fluke game winner or EGREGIOUS ref ball, to the point where the energy going into Game 6, it feels more like the team coming back is in control momentum-wise and should really be up 3-2 ready to close it out. But even that's a big stretch. More often than not, you lose 3 straight games in a playoff series you're just plain not as good as the other team.

Even in situations where a team has gone up 2-0 and dropped 3 straight games, they still only have to get their act together and win 2 straight to advance, as opposed to 4 straight. A margin for error that thin against a team that demonstrably has your number is damn near impossible.
 
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Professor Emeritus

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Whereas a team down 3-0 didn't just lose two road games, they lost a home game too. A team like that is almost always outmatched. You rarely lose 3 straight to start the series unless you're legit inferior.


When I wrote that, I didn't imagine that the clearly better team would be down 3-0. There's a first time for everything.

Either way the game ends, history gonna be made.
 

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Blazers almost did it to the Mavs back in 2003.


Just saw another one where the Nuggets almost did it to the Jazz.




That would have been incredibly embarrassing cause the Jazz were led by prime Malone, Stockton, and Hornacek with post-prime Chambers off the bench, while the Nuggets were an 8-seed led by Reggie Williams, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, and a very raw Dikembe early in his career. Strange fukking year for the Nuggets and goes to show how not ready a lot of teams were in that period.
 

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Just saw another one where the Nuggets almost did it to the Jazz.




That would have been incredibly embarrassing cause the Jazz were led by prime Malone, Stockton, and Hornacek with post-prime Chambers off the bench, while the Nuggets were an 8-seed led by Reggie Williams, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, and a very raw Dikembe early in his career. Strange fukking year for the Nuggets and goes to show how not ready a lot of teams were in that period.




Is this in that Stockton & Malone thread?
:dead:

If they blew that, it would never have been a question that they were all-time playoff chokers. :laugh:
 
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