On the Russia-Ukraine front it’s very likely Putin is going to invade eastern Ukraine. And the reason is because he knows the West isn’t going to intervene militarily. No one wants to start WW3 over Ukraine. Secondly it’s time. Ukraine is getting closer and closer to the west. Their military is still garbage but it has reformed greatly since the start of the Donbas War. Another couple of years it maybe very difficult to invade Ukraine. And another lesser known fact is because Crimea is running out of water. Climate Change has contributed to a drought in the Peninsula. So a push to the Dnieper River is the thing that gives them access to that water.
I have said this since the Donbas war and annexation of Crimea Putin isn’t finished with Ukraine. He created a frozen conflict to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Eastern Ukraine is a flat plain and more pro Russian then the west. Not to mention it’s the economic engine of Ukraine. So the goal is to invade Eastern Ukraine and turn the rest of Ukraine into a rump state that’s very poor like a Moldova.