How Remote Work Is Devastating New York City’s Commuter Rails
Before the pandemic, they relied on office workers, who spent up to $500 a month on tickets. At the M.T.A., those sales are down 75 percent.
A commuter rail station in Millburn, N.J. Ridership on the New York City region’s three main commuter railroads is below 40 percent of prepandemic levels.Credit...Bryan Anselm for The New York Times
By Matthew Haag and Patrick McGeehan
Jan. 21, 2022
Before the coronavirus pandemic, more than a million workers commuted into New York City every weekday.
Now, with the public health crisis entering its third year and another variant upending the rhythms of the city, employers increasingly view the five-day workweek in the office as a relic of the past, adopting more flexibility because their employees are demanding it.
The absence of office workers has dealt a brutal blow to restaurants, stores and other businesses that depend on them. But it has been particularly devastating for the public transit systems in the region, where before the pandemic more people used subways, commuter rails and buses than in any other part of the country.
In 2019, the regional transit agencies collectively carried more than 500 million passengers across the New York area, but ridership in 2021 declined by more than half of that prepandemic level.
Through wave after wave of coronavirus infections, transit officials have remained steadfast in their belief that commuters would soon return to regularly riding trains and buses.
But each new variant has dealt a disappointing setback as employers repeatedly postpone plans for a return to offices. Uncertainty about how the pandemic will play out has left transit officials guessing about when and to what degree commuters will revert to their previous routines — if they ever do.
Commuter rails, even more so than the subway, are particularly dependent on office workers flowing into New York from Long Island, New Jersey and suburbs north of the city.
The Omicron variant, which swept through the region at the end of last year, reversed what had been a slow but steady increase in commuting. Before the December holidays, weekday ridership had surpassed half of prepandemic levels on the region’s commuter systems and had even exceeded some forecasts for the year.
But since then, trains and buses have started emptying out again. Subway ridership, which had been nearing 60 percent of prepandemic levels, has dropped to below 50 percent. The commuter railroads sank to less than 40 percent of their prepandemic loads.
Despite the drop, transit agencies are still clinging to ridership projections that are generally on the high side: Metro-North Railroad and the Long Island Rail Road expect their ridership to reach at least 74 percent of prepandemic levels in 2022. The operators of the PATH train that links northern New Jersey to Manhattan forecast 80 percent. And New Jersey Transit predicts 76 percent by mid-2023.
But those projections are built more on hope than certainty, said Christopher Jones, a senior research fellow at the Regional Plan Association, an influential research and advocacy group.
“You know that people are not going to be traveling into the office as much as they were,” Mr. Jones said. “But you don’t know what those patterns are going to be yet.”
To gauge how ridership might recover, transit agencies have hired consultants and surveyed riders. But those methods are susceptible to the vagaries of the virus. In June, more than 90 percent of New Jersey Transit commuters to the city who were surveyed said their employers were planning a return to the office by September.
With many office workers having shifted to remote work, they are no longer buying monthly commuter passes, which were a significant and steady source of income for commuter railroads. Credit...Bryan Anselm for The New York Times
Before the pandemic, they relied on office workers, who spent up to $500 a month on tickets. At the M.T.A., those sales are down 75 percent.
A commuter rail station in Millburn, N.J. Ridership on the New York City region’s three main commuter railroads is below 40 percent of prepandemic levels.Credit...Bryan Anselm for The New York Times
By Matthew Haag and Patrick McGeehan
Jan. 21, 2022
Before the coronavirus pandemic, more than a million workers commuted into New York City every weekday.
Now, with the public health crisis entering its third year and another variant upending the rhythms of the city, employers increasingly view the five-day workweek in the office as a relic of the past, adopting more flexibility because their employees are demanding it.
The absence of office workers has dealt a brutal blow to restaurants, stores and other businesses that depend on them. But it has been particularly devastating for the public transit systems in the region, where before the pandemic more people used subways, commuter rails and buses than in any other part of the country.
In 2019, the regional transit agencies collectively carried more than 500 million passengers across the New York area, but ridership in 2021 declined by more than half of that prepandemic level.
Through wave after wave of coronavirus infections, transit officials have remained steadfast in their belief that commuters would soon return to regularly riding trains and buses.
But each new variant has dealt a disappointing setback as employers repeatedly postpone plans for a return to offices. Uncertainty about how the pandemic will play out has left transit officials guessing about when and to what degree commuters will revert to their previous routines — if they ever do.
Commuter rails, even more so than the subway, are particularly dependent on office workers flowing into New York from Long Island, New Jersey and suburbs north of the city.
The Omicron variant, which swept through the region at the end of last year, reversed what had been a slow but steady increase in commuting. Before the December holidays, weekday ridership had surpassed half of prepandemic levels on the region’s commuter systems and had even exceeded some forecasts for the year.
But since then, trains and buses have started emptying out again. Subway ridership, which had been nearing 60 percent of prepandemic levels, has dropped to below 50 percent. The commuter railroads sank to less than 40 percent of their prepandemic loads.
Despite the drop, transit agencies are still clinging to ridership projections that are generally on the high side: Metro-North Railroad and the Long Island Rail Road expect their ridership to reach at least 74 percent of prepandemic levels in 2022. The operators of the PATH train that links northern New Jersey to Manhattan forecast 80 percent. And New Jersey Transit predicts 76 percent by mid-2023.
But those projections are built more on hope than certainty, said Christopher Jones, a senior research fellow at the Regional Plan Association, an influential research and advocacy group.
“You know that people are not going to be traveling into the office as much as they were,” Mr. Jones said. “But you don’t know what those patterns are going to be yet.”
To gauge how ridership might recover, transit agencies have hired consultants and surveyed riders. But those methods are susceptible to the vagaries of the virus. In June, more than 90 percent of New Jersey Transit commuters to the city who were surveyed said their employers were planning a return to the office by September.
With many office workers having shifted to remote work, they are no longer buying monthly commuter passes, which were a significant and steady source of income for commuter railroads. Credit...Bryan Anselm for The New York Times
