Houston, We Have Rule Changes! The Official 2023 MLB Season Thread

Regular_P

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When do we start the contract watch on some of these recent mega deals, @Remote ?

Correa and JRod are my top two targets with an eye on Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson.
 

Remote

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When do we start the contract watch on some of these recent mega deals, @Remote ?

Correa and JRod are my top two targets with an eye on Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson.
Correa likely has peaked as a player.

Turner is probably still elite but needs to get healthy.

I’m not a believer in Swanson.

I think J Rod is a legit future star. But if he’s still struggling at the end of May, it’s a big red flag.

Off topic,
It looks like Kelenic may be legit now. He’s really impressive so far.
 

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Correa likely has peaked as a player.

Turner is probably still elite but needs to get healthy.

I’m not a believer in Swanson.

I think J Rod is a legit future star. But if he’s still struggling at the end of May, it’s a big red flag.

Off topic,
It looks like Kelenic may be legit now. He’s really impressive so far.

How you feel about juan Soto currently?
 

Remote

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How you feel about juan Soto currently?
Soto is still making elite contact. He will be fine. But I think people will have to understand that he’s probably never going to be a 40 HR type of bat.

From a value perspective he’s going to be great for the Padres. He makes good contact and he gets on base. I’m just not looking at him as a “face of the league” type player like Judge was last year.
 

Regular_P

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Soto is still making elite contact. He will be fine. But I think people will have to understand that he’s probably never going to be a 40 HR type of bat.

From a value perspective he’s going to be great for the Padres. He makes good contact and he gets on base. I’m just not looking at him as a “face of the league” type player like Judge was last year.
HIs ground ball rate is alarming.

there’s still plenty of red on his Statcast page, as he ranks near the top of the league in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.

There are also plenty of red flags, though. For starters: his cratering line-drive rate. This is the continuation of a trend, from 22.5 in 2021 to 19.2 last year to a scarcely-believable 6.1 so far in 2023. Combine that with a career-high ground ball rate, and it seems clear that while Soto is making lots of hard contact, it’s not necessarily the kind of hard contact that will produce for fantasy purposes.

Soto is never going to contribute first-round value in power (he’s still never cracked the 30-homer mark) or speed, so he’s really reliant on average and counting stats. The latter should still be there as long as he’s in the middle of San Diego’s order, but it’s very possible that he’s just a .240-250 hitter now.
 
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