Houston, We Have Rule Changes! The Official 2023 MLB Season Thread

Soldier

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Meh, I don't agree with this line of thinking. You can always find a couple guys with good gloves up the middle. You can't find many guys capable of 40+ HRs very often. Almost every team that makes the World Series has at least one guy that alters how a pitcher approaches their lineup.

Swanson left the Braves and they haven't missed a beat. Correa left the Astros and they won the World Series the very next season. Trea Turner left the Dodgers and they're running away with their division.

San Diego signed two highly touted shortstops and they're five games under .500. Texas was trash last season but turned it around this year. What was a big reason? Corey Seager is hitting .350 instead of .240.

I've been on record for years saying give me the bat over the glove. That doesn't mean I want eight Kyle Schwarbers in the field but give me guys who can make the routine plays and mash over Ozzie Smith.
Elite pitching/shutdown bullpen with relentless small ball hitting/offense is the winning recipe in the playoffs. The 2015 world series champions Kansas City royals surgically destroying the high powered flashy, homerun minded jays in that year’s ALCS still give me nightmares. They came at us in waves, hit after hit, run after run, stolen base after stolen base. They hit balls at will, got on bases at will, and scored at will in a cold blooded assassin manner. And every time they got a lead their bullpen shutdown us afterwards.

A young team full of Patient and selective Contact hitters with elite speed and elite baserunning IQ who tire out the pitcher by attrition during long at bats, who hit bunts, sac flys, singles, doubles and triples, who try to manufacture runs, who can steal bases, can drive in runs home, and who make sure to get on bases first and foremost>> older team full of impulsive one-dimensional slow-footed/plodding power hitters who swing at every pitch, always try to hit homeruns and never make the pitchers work hard for their strikes and never make them earn their outs, instead making their job easier with bad decision making at the plate.

I vividly remember the 2015-2016 veteran laden blue jays. Full of older, slow footed homerun smashers/long ball crushers and very few pure contact hitters (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Troy « Tulo » Tulowitzki etc )Their offense was based on the long ball. We won games by 5-10 runs. Every win was a blowout or a close high scoring game. We had an average pitching and bullpen but we had an elite offense. Our motto in that era was « « Live by the homer, die by the homer»

situational ball was never used. On these Toronto teams there were Very few baserunners with elite speed who could steal bases. Dalton Pompey was the only one. We had a batting lineup full of homerun kings but two relentless teams full of contact hitters beat the jays with timely hitting, speed on the bases and suffocating bullpens in back to back ALCS (2015 royals and 2016 Indians)

These recent Yankee playoff teams are built the same way the jays were built in the Bautista/encarnacion era. They are built to hit homers that’s it. They are old, They can’t steal bases, they are slow and plodding, they cant manufacture runs, average at best bullpen, they can’t score with RISP. they lose in the playoffs in the same manner the old jays lost.
3 hits allowed.
67 pitches

I fukking hate the LA Dodgers.
I hate them more than the Red Sox. And I’m a Yankees fan.

Someone is going to respond by saying he’s coming back off injury.
So what?
you hate the Red Sox, the dodgers and which other teams?
 
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tremonthustler1

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I disagree. :ehh:

Why'd the Phils go to the World Series last year? Because they caught fire offensively, particularly Harper. Why do the Yanks fall short every October? Because their offense crumbles. Why do the Rays typically fall short? They don't have enough bats.

Hitting has become oddly devalued by modern front offices, which is reflected in part by the fact that there are only 10 guys hitting .300 on the season.

Everything can come together for a year or two like the Royals in the middle of the aughts but to consistently contend, you need guys who can rake.
because there's a lot of stuff offensively that matters yet analytic heads don't believe in because it's hard to quantify and there's always a wait for a regression to the mean instead of riding the wave of a bat that's hot. I see it all the time. Someone will have a crazy day and go 3-4 or something and then the next day they don't play. Judge will go 4-9 in 2 games and then sit the last game of a series. And then they wonder why nobody can sustain positive momentum. Outliers are statistics too.
 

Soldier

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Batting average might be undervalued
Hitting is too broad a term.

If power correlates more to winning than average, then maybe it’s not undervalued. I’m not sure.

I’d suspect the top SLG teams are performing better than the top AVG teams but it’s late and I’ll google it tomorrow.
Contact hitters > power hitters.

High percentage plays > low percentage plays

Mid range shooting, layups, rim and paint scoring> 3-point shooting
 

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Elite pitching/shutdown bullpen with relentless small ball hitting/offense is the winning recipe in the playoffs. 2015 royals surgically destroying the high powered flashy, homerun minded jays in that year’s ALCS still give me nightmares. They came at us in waves, hit after hit, run after run, stolen base after stolen base. They hit balls at will, got on bases at will, and scored at will in a cold blooded assassin manner. And every time they got a lead their bullpen shutdown us afterwards.

Patient and selective Contact hitters with elite speed and elite baserunning IQ who tire out the pitcher by attrition during long at bats, who hit bunts, sac flys, singles, doubles and triples, who try to manufacture runs, who can steal bases, can drive in runs home, and who make sure to get on bases first and foremost>> impulsive one-dimensional slow-footed/plodding power hitters who swing at every pitch, always try to hit homeruns snd never make the pitchers work for their strikes and their outs, instead making their job easier with bad decision making on their part.

I vividly remember the 2015-2016 veteran laden blue jays. Full of slow footed homerun smashers/long ball crushers and very few pure contact hitters (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Troy « Tulo » Tulowitzki etc )Their offense was based on the long ball. We won games by 5-10 runs. Every win was a blowout or a close high scoring game. We had an average pitching and bullpen but we had an elite offense. Our motto in that era was « « Live by the homer, die by the homer»

situational ball was never used. On these Toronto teams there were Very few baserunners with elite speed who could steal bases. Dalton Pompey was the only one. We had a batting lineup full of homerun kings but two relentless teams full of contact hitters beat the jays with timely hitting, speed on the bases and suffocating bullpens in back to back ALCS (2015 royals and 2016 Indians)

These recent Yankee playoff teams are built the same way the jays were built in the Bautista/encarnacion era. They are built to hit homers that’s it. They can’t steal bases, they are slow and plodding, they cant manufacture runs, average at best bullpen, they can’t score with RISP. they lose in the playoffs in the same manner the old jays lost.

you hate the Red Sox, the dodgers and which other teams?
I don’t really hate the Red Sox much. They’re just an old rival.

I don’t like the way the Dodgers run their pitchers.

And I don’t like the way the current Yankees management does anything.

It’s hard to really truly hate another team the older you get. It’s just sports. But I can hate decisions.
 

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Contact hitters > power hitters.

High percentage plays > low percentage plays

Mid range shooting, layups, rim and paint scoring> 3-point shooting
Well it depends.
The Guardians have a bunch of slap hitters and they’re terrible.
 

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So here's what's happening between Matt Olson and Ha-seong Kim.

Matt Olson has a 4.0 WAR value (according to fangraphs)
Ha-seong Kim has a 4.4 WAR value.

Matt Olson is slashing .267/.375/.604
Ha-seong Kimg is slashing .288/.384/.451

So there's a 145 point difference in OPS here (.980 for Olson to .835 for Kim). That is massive.

On the other hand, Kim has stolen 27 bases. Olson has stolen 1.
That might explain at least SOME of the way Kim makes up for Olson's clear offensive dominance.

But it's true that defense is what is pushing Kim ahead of Olson this season.

Matt Olson is one of the worst defensive first basemen in baseball this season, with only Torkelson, Casas and Guerrero ranking worse.
Ha-seong Kim is one of the best defensive 2nd basemen this season, ranking 5th among 2B, although he's somewhat of a utility guy seeing time at 3B and SS.

How sabermetrics guys value defense is, admittedly, hotly debated. It has historically been very difficult to appreciate or see the value in a defender getting to more baseballs than other guys at his position.

It's easy to see a HR or a Double and correlate it to scoring. It's not as easy to see how a good SS or 2B getting to a ground ball up the middle or in the hole saves you runs and saves your pitchers....especially if the defender is able to make the out look routine when it isn't.

As usual, the clearest examples tend to come at the extremes. You can look at an Ozzie Smith and think "wow, he's amazing even though he doesn't hit" and value him more than someone like Joey Gallo who might hit 35 HRs but is terrible at every other aspect of the game.

But we've gone through this same thing 10 years ago with Ben Zobrist.
 

Soldier

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This year, The Blue Jays are the top 5 defensive team in baseball according to every defensive metric and advanced statistic.
And the Jays are an average offensive team according to every offensive statistic.

our batting lineup is great on paper, with lots of star names but it has definitely underachieved in real time this year. Lots of our hitters are on cold streaks and are struggling to hit balls and score runs right now. We can get on bases but we just can’t produce runs . We are probably the Worst team in the AL when it comes to drive RISP home. We often leave them bases loaded. Im not worried for the short term because hitting in baseball is fickle, a game of valleys and peaks and hot and cold streaks. After the drought usually comes the offensive revival.

Maybe the hitting coach is to blame ?

Thank God the pitching, bullpen and defense are keeping Toronto alive this season. I feel bad our pitchers because they barely receive run support and have to provide flawless performances just to keep the team in the game . Still not worried because If the bats wake up, the jays will destroy every team crossing their path. There is a reason why baseball experts in the media expected Toronto to advance to the World Series this year.
 
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