I will correct some things to give you a better picture.
4. Ethiopia won with the help of Turkey, UAE, and Eritrea. Without them, Abiy would've been ousted.
5. The Pretoria agreement was mostly in favor of the Ethiopian government and was more like a surrender for the TPLF. The TPLF lost all their leverage and are now divided.
6. No one turned on Abiy because of the deal. Eritrea was angered because they were completely sidelined during the negotiation but they didn't cut ties. There was a feeling of betrayal since they lost blood but the relationship was still salvageable. Amharas were also angered by being excluded from negotiations and the TPLF were promised that all of Tigray's territory would be returned including Western Tigray which was occupied by Amhara militants at that time (it still is). The agreement was welcomed by all other states. What caused the deterioration of ties between the Amhara and Abiy was when he tried to forcefully disarm them while the TPLF was still armed. This caused them to rebel and a new counterinsurgency was born (this all happened late 2022-early 2023). Abiy then started claiming that Ethiopia has the right to direct sea access and will take it through force or "deals". Alarm bells sounded across the entire region and every state released statements saying that no one is denying Ethiopia access to sea but their sovereignty is non-negotiable. Some federal MPs and and ministers of Ethiopia began mentioning how Eritrea wasn't even a real country and that Assab Port (Eritrea) actually belongs to Ethiopia (this was all late 2023). Later he made a deal with Somaliland to take a portion of their coast for recognition behind the back of Somalia. Abiy was also complaining about how Djibouti basically steals from Ethiopia because their port fees are so expensive. Furthermore, there are reports that UAE sends arms through Ethiopia to Sudan which continues to fuel the crisis in that country. Ethiopia's state news channel recently released a documentary about how Assab legally still belongs to them and how vital it is. Basically, Abiy threatening all of his neighbors is the reason for tense relations(2024).
7. Tigray has basically been neutered. They are still recovering and extremely divided however there is a chance that small-scale skirmishes can happen in Tigray between rival TPLF factions. Amharas are continuing their insurgency. It looks like the OLA are starting to get a bit more active recently. Eritrea and Somalia are not interested in going to war with Ethiopia. Somalia is incapable of going to war and Eritrea will continue to have a defensive posture. They have nothing to gain from attacking Ethiopia. Egypt's red line is Ethiopia trying to forcefully get a port on the Red Sea but even then I doubt they will actually do anything. Sudan is obviously preoccupied with their own civil conflict. Ethiopia is also not in a position to go to war as it has 2 active insurgencies that they can't put down and plenty of other rebel groups will form if they smell blood in the water.
8, He's desperate for a distraction that he believes will unite Ethiopians.
11. The Gerd challenges the sovereignty of Egypt as the Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt and Ethiopia challenges Somalia's sovereignty by trying to dismember it by recognizing Somaliland and stealing some coastal territory.
12. A new development- Somaliland's new foreign minister basically walks back the MoU. Ethiopia and Somalia signed a deal in Ankara that claims Ethiopia will get commercial sea access through Somalia and that their peacekeeping troops will remain in Somalia. Ethiopia also reneged on their deal with SL. Now Ethiopia is back to claiming Assab and has stopped talking about Somalia. And we're back to the tense relations we had in 2023. Egyptians peacekeeping troops are also on their way to Somalia but it is unlikely that they'll be stationed at the Somalia-Ethiopia border.