Owl theory is straight up obfuscation. The likelihood she died that way is some god like circumstances. He probably didn’t intend to murder her but probably pushed her etc and her landing killed her. The circumstances of being in debt, not attracted to each other, only one making the money makes it very likely it wasn’t a freak accident.
Based solely on what they’ve shown in the HBO show thus far, I don’t see how you can just dismiss the owl theory. It’s the only theory that explains everything without holes and is supported by the physical evidence. The only knock on it is that it is statistically unlikely. But it’s certainly not impossible. Both the defense and prosecution have illustrated that a shove and a fall alone doesn’t fit the scene. She would have had to have been beaten. And they haven’t shown anything to date to support the assertion that Michael beat her.
The latest episode introduced the fact that another case emerged where the victim was beaten without a skull fracture. With that victim being connected to the Peterson case, I see why Sophie would play the 3rd party attacker angle since it’s less far-fetched. I just don’t see why she started doubting Michael and, at least privately, the owl theory.