Greece financial crisis | Latest : Deal reached with even tougher conditions for Greece.

The Fukin Prophecy

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cant wait to go vacation in europe as the dollar strengthens

Some countries are threatening to leave the EU if Greece gets bailed out. I dont blame em
Spain, Italy, France and Portugal are in slightly better shape than Greece...

Once their people see the Greeks stabilize (and they will with the drachma) they will all want out of the EU...

This is what Germany, the ONLY benefactor of the EU wants very badly to avoid...
 

GunRanger

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cant wait to go vacation in europe as the dollar strengthens

Some countries are threatening to leave the EU if Greece gets bailed out. I dont blame em
yup. can finally go there without breaking the bank.


i hope they all collapse :blessed:



i just need the time :mjcry:
 

NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong

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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1435517950.php great read on the situation all around. the below is just a snippet
:whew:

"The entire Greek drama has been an exercise in denial. In hindsight, the best solution would have been to write down all the debt when Greece got its first bailout. Everyone would have taken their lumps and moved on. This was what I advocated back in 2010.

I wrote at the time (but still can’t prove) that the reason no such thing happened is that it would have left some very large European banks insolvent. Europe avoided that possibility by transferring most of Greece’s debt to the “European Financial Stability Facility,” or EFSF. It owns about 45% of Greece’s national debt. That transfer took several years and has essentially been accomplished. Greece can go completely belly-up, and the only groups that lose are essentially state actors. Bank and private debt is now minor.

150627-02.jpg


The EFSF refinanced Greece’s debt on remarkably generous terms. The average maturity is about 32 years, and Greece pays a variable interest rate, currently about 1.5%. Most of the EFSF loans are interest-only until 2023, too. Is there anyone who wouldn’t love such terms from lenders? Sign me up.

If this sounds familiar, it should. The EFSF loans look a lot like the home equity lines of credit that left so many American homeowners in deep trouble after 2008.They are actually worse. HELOCs at least have some legal claim on collateral. The EFSF can beg and scream, but that’s about it.

The pie chart above shows how Greece’s government debt breaks down. European quasi-government organizations like EFSF, central banks, and the International Monetary Fund own the vast majority of it. Greece constantly rolls over its Treasury bills and bonds. Investors who own it are taking a big risk, but they’re also collecting premium interest rates to compensate for it.

Despite what looks like lender generosity – and a lot of austerity at home – Greece still can’t pay its debts. The immediate problem is a €1.5 billion payment to the IMF due next Tuesday, June 30. Greece will miss that payment unless someone on the other side bends. No one was willing, least of all Germany, unless Greece also tightened its belt further.

Let me see if I can summarize, from my rather voluminous readings from all facets of the media, the problems facing Greece and Europe.

1. Greece now owes 180% of GDP to a collection of mostly state lenders. Even at low rates, it is impossible for Greece to pay those loans back without somehow engineering 3-5% growth. Given that for the last five years GDP is down some 20-25%, we are clearly going the wrong direction. Many of the best and most productive Greeks, especially the young, are leaving to find jobs elsewhere; and that is not a recipe for creating new business and growth. The country is growing older because the younger are emigrating. Fewer people to pay taxes and more people needing pensions is not a recipe for growth.

Simply lending Greece more money to pay back their debt, thereby piling on an even greater burden for future generations, does kick the can down the road for the time being; but it does not solve the fundamental problem that Greece simply can’t pay. Ever. Even with essentially free money if that money comes with the requirement that there have to be more taxes and higher costs on goods.

2. The idea that reform is actually good for Greece has somehow disappeared from the picture with the coming of Syriza. I remember being in Greece about two years ago as the new, young administration took the reins. I met with government officials, most of them new to their jobs. Many were enthusiastic about their ability to change the system and reform Greece, trying to get rid of corruption and waste. Even the modest reforms they were able to put in place created a huge backlash against what was called “austerity.” (Which is what you call it when your big bad creditors want to get rid of excess government workers. All government workers become vital, especially if they are part of a big union, even if they don’t do anything.)

My visits and conversations with Greeks suggest that the Greek business environment itself is the impediment to growth. The real task, says The Economist correctly, is to “sort out the structural impediments to growth – rampant clientelism, hopeless public administration, comically bad regulations, a lethargic and unreliable justice system, nationalised assets and oligopolies, and inflexible markets for goods and services and labour.”

Let’s go through what that list actually means. Government bureaucracies tend to favor businesses already in place and create unnecessary rules for competition. The bureaucracy is hopelessly bloated, some 50% too large and heavily geared toward patronage and employing family and friends, many of whom do little or no work and collect a check regardless. The rules are such that many of the most important industries have only two actual providers of goods or services, neither of which is incentivized to compete on price. It is extremely difficult to create a new business to compete with these oligopolies.

The justice system is notoriously fickle and subject to pressure and bribes and crony capitalism. Many of the state-owned businesses, like the railroads, are hopelessly mired in losses and inefficiencies. It is actually cheaper (in terms of the system’s costs) to take a taxi across Greece than it is to ride the train, even though the train ticket is cheaper to purchase. The Greek government loses money on every passenger. Ditto for electricity and energy (which many Greeks have determined they don’t need to pay for anyway, since the energy company can’t cut off their power)."

There are significant right-wing (from conservative to National Socialists) movements being formed all over Europe. The largest is in France, where Marine Le Pen has moved her father’s party, the National Front Party, from an afterthought and an outlier to a significant force. They are winning elections and are very likely to contest the next presidential election, which could see the center-left and/or center-right coalitions becoming also-rans. Read what Marine Le Pen said this week on Bloomberg TV:
"I will be Madame Frexit (meaning leading France out of the Eurozone) if the European Union doesn’t give us back our monetary, legislative, territorial, and budget sovereignty…. I believe that sovereignty is the twin sister of democracy. If there’s no sovereignty, there is no democracy. I’m a Democrat; I will fight it to the end to defend democracy and the will of the people…, [and] if I don’t manage to negotiate with the European Union, something I wish, [then] I will ask the French to leave the European Union. And then you’ll have to call me Madame Frexit…. Greece and France are on the same staircase; they’re not yet on the same floor. We’ll catch up with them, because the logic of the economic model imposed by the European Union always produces the same effects.

Today is the Grexit, tomorrow is the Brexit, and the day after tomorrow it will be the Frexit. At one point or another, every country who is suffering from this currency will only want one thing: escape from it or engage a battle with the European Commission."


@Liu Kang thoughts?
 

MikelArteta

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Greek media saying ATM withdrawals could be tapped at €150-200. Sounds like capital controls to me.
 
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So what's this about Greece having no money? Everyone is just all "meh" about it, so you don't really hear about it, because nobody seems to care about it.

I could've sworn this happened already. What's Greece problem?
 

CHL

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...deepens-banks-close-a-week-weekend-shook-euro

On Monday morning Greeks will find their savings blocked and their banks closed for a week following a fateful weekend that has shaken Europe’s single currency.

The Greek government decided on Sunday night it had no option but to close the nation’s banks the following day after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the stakes by freezing the liquidity lifeline that has kept them afloat during a six-month run on deposits.

The Athens Stock Exchange will not reopen on Monday either. The dramatic move, after 48 hours of sensational developments in Greece’s long-running battles with creditors, was sparked by the country’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras’s Friday night call for a referendum on its creditors’ demands. That prompted finance ministers of the eurozone to effectively put an end to his country’s five-year bailout by the International Monetary Fund, the ECB and the European commission.

In a brief, televised address to the nation, Tsipras threw the blame onto the leaders of the eurozone. But he did not say how long the banks would remain shut, nor did he give details of how much individuals and companies would be allowed to withdraw once they reopened.

It later emerged that the banks would be kept shut until after the referendum on 5 July and withdrawals from cash machines would be limited to €60 – about £40. Cash machines are not expected to reopen until Tuesday.

Greece’s finance ministry later announced that the strict withdrawal limits would not apply to holders of credit or debit cards issued in foreign countries. This was seen as a necessary move after worries that tourists were seen joining locals in front of ATMs on Sunday. Any similar restriction would hurt tourism, Greece’s one thriving industry, which accounts for at least a fifth of economic activity.

The prime minister said that Saturday’s move by the eurozone’s finance ministers to halt Greece’s bailout programme was unprecedented. He called it “a denial of the Greek public’s right to reach a democratic decision”.

Tsipras added that the finance ministers’ initiative had prompted the ECB to curb its assistance, forcing the government to take the steps that it had. He said he had once again appealed for an extension of the bailout until after the referendum, on 5 July, sending his proposal to the president of the European council, Donald Tusk, the leaders of the 18 member states of the single currency, the commission and the ECB.

As fears spread through Sunday that capital controls would need to be put in place, growing numbers of depositors lined up at ATMs, even in affluent city areas, to withdraw what cash they could.

Drivers also flocked to gas stations across Greece, prompting the country’s largest refiner to issue a statement reassuring there are enough reserves. Refiner Hellenic Petroleum said: “We maintain fuel reserves for several months. The supply of our refineries with crude oil is also assured.”

The country’s plight deteriorated sharply on Friday night when Tsipras put his country’s future in the balance by suddenly calling a referendum and arguing robustly for a rejection of the price set by his creditors for saving Greece, at least for a few more months. This Sunday’s vote will ask Greeks whether they approve or disapprove of the last offer tabled by the creditors before the negotiations broke down.

But during a marathon parliamentary debate that ended in the early hours of Sunday morning, opposition leaders argued that it was, in fact, a vote on whether Greeks wished any longer to be part of the eurozone. It will be Greece’s first referendum since the country voted to abolish its monarchy in 1974.

The European commission said on Sunday for the first time in the crisis that it wanted to offer Greece debt relief, Tsipras’s central demand during the five months of stalemated talks. Reports from Berlin said that Angela Merkel and François Hollande shared that view.

But the potential concession appeared to come too late to prevent growing chaos in Greece – and sparked concerns across the Atlantic. Barack Obama was said to have called Merkel to urge her to take action. Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary, urged creditors to offer debt relief to Greece.

Financial analysts will be watching the impact on the markets, which have not yet had the chance to react to the events of the last 48 hours. Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, tightened the screws somewhat on the country.

The governing council of the ECB decided to freeze emergency liquidity assistance to the Greek banks, the lifeline that is keeping the national financial system functioning. The ELA was capped at last Friday’s level of €89bn. It meant that the banks could continue to function, but the draining of money as people flocked to the ATMs to retrieve their savings also meant they would run out of money that could not be replenished by the central bank.

“We continue to work closely with the Bank of Greece,” Draghi said.

Greece’s financial stability committee, which includes the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, and the central bank governor, Yannis Stournaras, met on Sunday evening to discuss Greece’s rapidly shrinking options. The high-level political confrontations on Friday and Saturday produced the greatest uncertainty over Greece and in the eurozone in the five-year debt saga.

The fall-out from the collapse of negotiations and the calling of the referendum brought recrimination on all sides and predictions of gloom.

The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said he was “perplexed and depressed” by developments. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who heads the committee of eurozone finance ministers, said that with his referendum call, Tsipras was thrusting the country into a mess from which it would struggle to recover.

“We are millimetres away from the total collapse of the Greek financial system,” warned Herman Van Rompuy, until last year the president of the European Council and heavily involved in years of Greek rescue negotiations. “It’s actually suicide that’s taking place in Greece right now.”

The restrictions being imposed are anathema to Tsipras’s radical left-led government – all the more so since it desperately needs to keep public opinion on its side ahead of the referendum.

Varoufakis told the BBC in a Sunday interview: “Capital controls within a monetary union are a contradiction in terms.” But he was party to Sunday night’s decision.

In the early hours of Sunday, parliament voted 178 to 120 in favour of holding the referendum. Embarrassingly for the government, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn movement joined Tsipras’s Syriza party and its populist right-wing coalition partner, ANEL, in backing the proposal. (:snoop:)

By Sunday evening, however, it had not received the necessary endorsement of Greece’s president, Prokopis Pavlopoulos.

According to two polls published on Sunday, Tsipras faces an uphill battle to secure the rejection he has indicated that he favours. One in the right-leaning tabloid Proto Thema found 57% of those interviewed favoured acceptance of the creditors’ latest offer. Another in the centre-left To Vima put support at 47%.
 

Liu Kang

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[...]"There are significant right-wing (from conservative to National Socialists) movements being formed all over Europe. The largest is in France, where Marine Le Pen has moved her father’s party, the National Front Party, from an afterthought and an outlier to a significant force. They are winning elections and are very likely to contest the next presidential election, which could see the center-left and/or center-right coalitions becoming also-rans. Read what Marine Le Pen said this week on Bloomberg TV:
"I will be Madame Frexit (meaning leading France out of the Eurozone) if the European Union doesn’t give us back our monetary, legislative, territorial, and budget sovereignty…. I believe that sovereignty is the twin sister of democracy. If there’s no sovereignty, there is no democracy. I’m a Democrat; I will fight it to the end to defend democracy and the will of the people…, [and] if I don’t manage to negotiate with the European Union, something I wish, [then] I will ask the French to leave the European Union. And then you’ll have to call me Madame Frexit…. Greece and France are on the same staircase; they’re not yet on the same floor. We’ll catch up with them, because the logic of the economic model imposed by the European Union always produces the same effects.

Today is the Grexit, tomorrow is the Brexit, and the day after tomorrow it will be the Frexit. At one point or another, every country who is suffering from this currency will only want one thing: escape from it or engage a battle with the European Commission.
"
@Liu Kang thoughts?
About Greece, a breh I knew spent two years there a decade ago because his father was temporarily working there. And he would definitely cosign the Greek's propensity to dodge taxes and other things. He once told me that Greeks are known to let steel bars visible on their house so they can "legally" prove their house is not finished (even if they live there for years or even decades) to avoid paying property taxes. I think the situation is there because every parties are at fault (from the Greek gov, passing by the Greeks, the IMF, French and Germans banks, the Eurogroup etc.) and I'm kinda skeptical when Greeks are portrayed as victims only because they definitely have a part in this.

Now about France, the article is right (well at least, that's what I read elsewhere) that the Greek debt was owned mostly by French and German banks and a payment default would have killed a few banks had the French and German governments not saved them. They did so by "transferring" the debt to the taxpayers mostly (but it's explained better in the article above).

About the Front National Party, the breh is a little off.
A little context before : For decades, the Front National (FN) was ruled by Jean-Marie Le Pen who was a Algerian War vet (he admittedly tortured Algerians and did other type of dirt there), who had connections to Neo-Nazis, who got convicted of assaults on other politicians, racism, Holocaust denial and other things etc. The party was created in the 70s but struggled to be a factor in elections. That changed when President Mitterrand (Socialist, president from 1981 to 1995, twice elected) a policy called the "proportional ballot" (which was aiming at having a better representation of all parties (but mostly for minor ones) in the National Assembly (our Parliament)). At the time the two main parties were RPR (right) and Socialist Party (left) and Mitterrand, strategically, believed RPR was too much of a threat for him and his reelection so he needed minor parties in the right to eat the votes RPR was getting.


That greatly helped the FN's visibility and since then, depending on the elections, they are usually the 3rd or 4th party behind the two historical leading ones which are the Socialist party (your Democrats equivalent) and the UMP (your Republicans equivalent, hell, they just changed their name to... The Republicans :russ:). from the 80s to the 2000s, people didn't openly vote FN, it was a "shame" to vote for them and saying it considering Jean-Marie Le Pen's history but still, they had votes and polls always had troubles being right with their vote prediction because nobody was willing to admit they voted for them. This changed in 2002 with presidential elections when the Socialist Party incredibly failed because the left had too much parties running and that split the left votes. With security questions, immigration, criminality and other typical right subjects being the main and leading preoccupations of this election, that lead to Jospin finishing third and not making it to the second round and Jean-Marie Le Pen in position of *actually* being elected as president. He would never have been obviously and Chirac won with 82% (yes, 82% in a democracy lol) but one can say, it was a turning point in French politics and since then people are not afraid to say they vote for FN.


Marine Le Pen is kinda different from her father (she's president of the FN since 2010 considering her father groomed her to be the next prez and didn't want nobody but her at the head). She recognized the Holocaust and actually had Jews voting for her (!), she never slipped or said something racist (or I don't know of that), she's light on the homosexuality/Gay marriage criticism (she's a Christian and some LGBT not scared to vote for her party either) though she's still hard on Islam, Europe and immigration like her father was. I think she's clever and playing her cards right thus far and she really hold her own in TV debates against seasoned politicians considering she's quite young for a French politician (45). For months now, she's clearly in a frontal war with her father and had (or will have) a vote to expel him from the FN because he can't help but slip with racist/homophobic/islamophobic stuff (he's an old man after all) and she wants a lighter FN far from its old image.


Marine Le Pen had 18% votes in the 2012 presidential elections (her father had 17% in 2002 when he finished second in the first round) and finished third (Hollande and Sarkozy had around 28%). All that to say that the FN is not being formed. It is a major factor in France for more than 15 years now. Their progression is quite steady and Marine Le Pen's strategy to polish the image of the party is only partly a reason why they are now more successful as a party. They actually won the European elections last year with 25% :snoop: And always with the same policies : the FN always hated the Euro and Brussels (symbol of the EU) and has always advocated for a Franc return since we changed it to Euro. They always were anti-immigration (and Schenghen area) and wants borders back. They are anti-Eurozone and always said so with always the same "sovereignty" explanation so to me, the quote is nothing new. She's just surfing the wave quite smartly.
 
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