1. Avoid turnovers. I cannot overstate how incredibly important it is to avoid turnovers against the Packers, but let me put it into context for you. The Packers were 11-5 this year. They failed to produce at least one takeaway in five of those 16 games, which is a pretty high figure for them. They were 1-4 in those games, and their lone win was a one-point victory over the Saints at Lambeau. When they forced at least one turnover, they went 10-1. That's pretty good.
Let's look back a little further. What about the entirety of the Mike McCarthy era? The Packers are a staggering 1-13 when they fail to force at least one takeaway in a game under McCarthy, including a 1-10 record with Rodgers at the helm. When he has at least one turnover on his side, McCarthy and his Packers are otherwise a combined 73-25 over that same time frame. How simple can that be?
Of course, you're probably saying right about now that most teams will have a terrible record when they don't produce at least one takeaway, and you're not wrong; on average, they win about 23 percent of the time. McCarthy's teams have been significantly better than the average team and their win rate with no turnovers is higher. Playoff teams from 2006 to 2012 have gone 80-119 in games in which they haven't forced a takeaway, a winning percentage of just over 40 percent. Clearly, Green Bay is more dependent upon the turnover than most teams, something that's backed up by their defensive style of play and the devastating things their offense can do with a short field.
When I was handicapping the Kaepernick-Smith move, one of the disadvantages I mentioned with regard to Kaepernick was the likelihood that he would turn the ball over more frequently than Smith, who rates out as one of the most conservative and safe ball handlers of his generation. So far, the Niners have avoided that fate; they turned the ball over nine times in nine Smith starts, and have done so seven times in seven Kaepernick starts. There are reasons to believe that the Kaepernick figure will rise. His interception rate is at just 1.4 percent, a figure that's impossible to sustain, let alone for a quarterback who throws downfield as frequently as Kaepernick. In addition, Kaepernick already has nine fumbles across his seven starts, three times as many as Smith had across nine starts. While several of those have been aborted snaps that the offense is more likely to recover, there's certainly no guarantee that Kaepernick's fumbles will continue to be picked up by the right team. And after all, against Green Bay, all it takes is one takeaway.
No replay back then
