German Federal Elections (Merkel remains Chancellor, AfD enters Bundestag, SPD heads the Opposition)

FAH1223

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Merkel's conservatives just ahead of Social Democrats: poll

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks at the opening of a new research center for dementia diseases DZNE at the university hospital in Bonn, Germany, March 15, 2017. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay

Angela Merkel's conservatives have a slight lead over the Social Democrats (SPD) but a left-leaning alliance led by the SPD would have enough support to wrest power from the German chancellor, a poll showed six months before a federal election.

The conservatives were unchanged on 33 percent while the SPD dropped one percentage point from last week to 32 percent, the Emnid poll for Bild am Sonntag newspaper showed.

Support for the far-left Linke was steady at 8 percent while support for the Greens rose by one point to 8 percent. That would give a "red-red-green" alliance of the SPD, Linke and Greens 48 percent - which the newspaper said would be enough to form a coalition government.

The SPD trailed the conservatives in opinion polls for years but its support has surged since late January, when it nominated former European Parliament President Martin Schulz as its challenger to Merkel in a Sept. 24 election - a move that also resulted in a sharp increase in SPD members.

Schulz is campaigning on issues such as social justice and suggesting revisions to Agenda 2010 labor market reforms rolled out by Gerhard Schroeder, the last SPD chancellor.

Merkel's conservatives have been in power since 2005, forming a coalition with the SPD in their first term as well as the current legislative period. In between, the conservatives teamed up with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) until they crashed out of parliament in 2013.

In a direct vote for the chancellor, 46 percent would choose Merkel while 38 percent would pick Schulz, the poll showed. In early February, Schulz would have won such a popularity contest with 46 percent and Merkel on 40 percent.

The Emnid poll showed the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining one percentage point to reach 9 percent while the FDP dropped one point but was still at the 5 percent threshold necessary to enter the lower house of parliament.

Emnid asked 1,832 people about their party preferences between March 9 and March 15. It polled 501 people on March 16 on the direct vote for chancellor question.

(Reporting by Michelle Martin; editing by David Clarke)

Merkel's conservatives just ahead of Social Democrats: poll
 

FAH1223

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German Federal Election, 2017

24 September 2017

All 598+ seats in the Bundestag
300+ seats needed for a majority


Angela Merkel
Party CDU/CSU (Center-Right)
Leader since 10 April 2000
Leader's seat Vorpommern-Rügen-Greifswald I
2013 Election 311 seats, 41.5%


Martin Schulz
Party SPD (Center-Left)
Leader since 19 March 2017
2013 Election 193 seats, 25.7%


Sahra Wagenknecht & Dietmar Bartsch
Party Left (Far Left, Leftwing populism)
Leader's seat
North Rhine-Westphalia list &
Mecklenburg-West Pomerania list
2013 Election 64 seats, 8.6%



Katrin Göring-Eckardt&
Cem Özdemir
Party Green (Center-Left)
Leader's seat
Thuringia list &
Baden-Württemberg list
2013 Election 63 seats, 8.4%



Christian Lindner
Party FDP (Center Right)
Leader since 7 December 2013
2013 Election 0 seats, 4.8%


Frauke Petry / Jörg Meuthen
Party AfD (Far Right, Right wing populism)
Leader since 14 April 2013
2013 Election 0 seats, 4.7%
 

Scoop

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We're a bit of ways out but it's going to be interesting to watch. The economy there is strong but no longer really growing and people may just have Merkel fatigue in general. Her term started all the way back in 2005. Eventually, no matter how well of a job you do people like seeing fresh faces (not that Martin Schulz is a fresh face per se).

Based off today's polls, Alternative for Germany will somewhere between double and triple their support of 4.7% back in 2013.
 

Scoop

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Aggregate polling update:

CDU (Merkel) - 40
SPD (Schulz) - 24
The Left - 9
FDP - 8
Alternative for Germany - 7
Greens - 7
 

Scoop

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Here's the Political Compass's view on the parties' positions. Pretty interesting read no matter your political views:

germany2017.png


This time around, the German parties are mostly clustered closer together than they would like the public to believe. The CDU and CSU haven’t shifted greatly in recent times, although, of course, some of the driving issues have.

Most parties — either reluctantly or enthusiastically — accept the prevailing economic orthodoxy, content to argue over which of them can best manage neoliberalism, rather than question whether it is appropriate for the ecological, social and cultural challenges of the times. It is on the social scale that they’re now most comfotable defining their real and imagined differences.

As has happened elsewhere in Europe, many German political commentators — and, alas, the general public — wrongly refer to ‘right’ and ‘left’ as a description of social attitudes. In our French electoral analysis we pointed out that the ‘far right’ Front National is economically to the left of the French Socialist Party! Their extremism is in their social policies rather than in their economics — and this applies to many of the new deeply conservative ‘right wing’ parties emerging in western democracies. In Germany it’s a little different though. The AfD shares a characteristic hostility to alternative lifestyles of many sister parties, and a willingness to give a helping hand to struggling traditional families, but it is less critical of globalisation per se. In its extraordinary cluster of attitudes, the relatively new anti-immigrant party has failed to recognise that open borders for the flow of capital is inextricably linked to open borders for the flow of people.

The German Greens are also of a different complexion from their more radical and undeniably left sister parties. It appears to be a party of few fixed principles, and with a considerable authoritarian streak, demonstrated by its attempts to legally enforce ‘good behaviour’. There’s a significant gap in the German Greens between their rhetoric and their surprisingly conservative positions on many issues.

We can imagine the ghost of Willy Brandt scratching his head in bewilderment as the SPD positions itself at the ‘centre’ — an increasingly meaningless term given the relentless rightward shift of the fulcrum. These days the mainstream of the party would feel more affinity with a Tony Blair than a Jeremy Corbyn. In reality, the Left Party is closer to the position that the SPD occupied before the mid-1980s.

The Political Compass
 

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Aesthetics
This election is a total non-event, the familiarity is actually a strong point for Merkel because there's a sort of follow the leader herd mentality that's built into German culture. Familiarity is what she ran on the last time out as well and that, along with the country's economic performance pretty much has her locked in for another term.

The 'refugee' crisis has been a disaster and less than 10% of the nearly one million migrants that entered the country in 2015 have managed to find work according to the German Institute for Employment Research which makes the best estimate 50% employment by 2020 highly unlikely despite the committment to plunk down some €94 billion to cover housing and fostering of integration. However, people with growing concerns about immigration - and there are - would do far worse to vote SPD. The AfD is almost certainly going to enter the Bundestag this month though.
 
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