Buccaneers @ Lions (-9) -- 1 p.m.
Biggest favorite for Lions over Bucs since Sep 08, 1996
Bucs have been favored over Lions 14 of last 15 matchups.
Lions: 8-1 ATS vs Bucs
Any team favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-33 against the spread.
Detroit: Any home team off a loss as a road favorite: 15-2 ATS
Tampa 21-12 ATS on the road
Detroit: 26th best defense; 5th best red zone score defense (very likely lucky so far in red zone)
What Wiseguys saw last week improved TB’s power ranking by two points – biggest change (upgrade or downgrade) of the week.
Jaguars @ Texans (-10) -- 1 p.m.
Jags: 3-12 ATS run
Each of Jags 9 losses by double digits
Jacksonville worse than the #31 ranked team by 6 points (in the Vegas Rankings)
Texans yielding least yards per game in NFL.
Vikings @ Packers (-4.5) -- 1 p.m.
GB: 33-12 ATS in Division (12 of last 14 ATS)
GB, in division off loss: 13-1-1 ATS
(Minny played Seattle last Week)
Teams off Seattle 16-37-4 (30%) the next week (last 4 seasons)
Home team in Packers games have covered 14 of 18 ATS
Packers defense has yielded 18 TD passes with only 4 interceptions
Road underdog off a road loss: 64% since 2003
The opening Vegas line on this game (May): GB -4.5
Vikings giving up most points per game in NFL
Chargers @ Chiefs (-4.5) -- 1 p.m.
KC has not be favored over SD since 2005
KC as division favorites: 1-10 ATS
KC in Denver sandwich (last week and next week)
Alex Smith last 36 games as a starter: 29-6-1 SU
Team 4-0 or better, before losing last game: 23-37-1 ATS next game (37% since 1992)
Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% ATS since 2003
Based on “Net yards Per Play”: KC is 26th best in the league
San Diego: Worst defense in league (per play)
The opening Vegas line on this game (May): KC -1
KC has best turnover margin in NFL: +15 (last season they had the worst)
Panthers @ Dolphins (+4.5) -- 1 p.m.
Miami: Any team following a win as a home underdog: 5-23 ATS
Road team in Miami games 54-35 ATS
Panthers covered last 6 games (by a combined 82 points)
Cam Newton in one-score games: 4-14 SU in career (won last 2)
Panthers: 23rd best offense yards per play; but 4th best red zone scoring (very likely lucky so far in red zone)
Before last week’s games: Panthers favored by only 3 in this game (over adjustment off MNF win?)
Miami gaining second least yards per game in NFL
Carolina yielding least points per game in NFL
Steelers @ Browns (-2) -- 1 p.m.
Pitt: 23-3 SU vs. Browns last 26
Last time Steelers underdog to Browns: 2003
Time before that: 1994
Steelers on road: 6-17 ATS streak
Pitt: Any team following a win as a home underdog: 5-23 ATS
The SU winner of the last 22 Cleveland games has covered 20 times (spread has mattered only twice)
Browns: Best defense (per play) in league, but worse defense in Red Zone score (very likely unlucky so far in red zone)
Bears @ Rams (-1.5) -- 1 p.m.
Bears have not covered once the last 9 games BEFORE playing Minnesota
Bears have yielded 182 yards rushing per game (last 4 games)
Chicago: 7th best offense (per play); 27th best defense
Jets @ Ravens (-3.5) -- 1 p.m.
Baltimore has covered 6 straight at home
Jets Zig-zagged between wins and losses every game this season (lost last game)
Last 7 Ravens games: decided by a total margin of only 23 points
Off last 24 losses, Ravens won the next game 20 times (SU)
Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% since 2003
Ravens: 2nd worse offense in league (per play)
Jets yielding least yards rushing per game in NFL
Jets have the worst turnover margin in league (-14)
Titans @ Raiders (+1) -- 4:05 p.m.
Titans on the road: 4-0 ATS this season
Colts @ Cardinals (-2.5) -- 4:05 p.m.
Bruce Arians coached at Indy last year (many pro bettors consider this significant)
Cards (last 9 games) has lost only 3: at SF, at Saints, vs. Seattle
Only 6 teams with a better net yards per play than Arizona
Luck on road in career: 16 TD and 15 INTS
Colts in 1st half (last 3 games): outscored 66 to 9
Cards at home are 57% against the spread – last 10+ seasons (50-38 ATS)
Arizona has improved in the Vegas Power Rankings the most of any team since the start of the season.
Over the last 6 games
Colts on defense have yielded over 400 yards per game
Arizona has yielded over 400 yards ONCE ALL SEASON
Cowboys @ Giants (-2.5) -- 4:25 p.m.
Last 4 games: Giants have yielded less than 12 ppg
Dallas yielded 40 first downs and gained only 9 last game vs. Saints
Dallas beat Giants first matchup this season, but were outgained by over 140 yards
Dallas has been outgained by over 1100 yards on the season
Dallas 7-1 ATS off bye
Giants at home: only 2 of 14 winning seasons ATS
Underdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (41-17 ATS the last 4 seasons)
Tony Romo has won 22 of 27 games (SU) in November
Cowboys, playing within the division: 18-31 ATS
Dallas: Any team off 30+ point loss before bye: 15-4 ATS
And Dallas has been lucky with turnovers: +11 on the season
While the Giants have been unlucky: -11 on the season
SNF: Broncos @ Patriots (+2.5) -- 8:30 p.m.
Pats: multiple 2ndary injuries
Pats back to back underdogs: first time since 2006.
11/7/2005 the last time Patriots a home underdog.
That’s over 8 years (2934 days ago!)
708 home underdogs in the NFL since.
6 times since from the 2nd most uncommon home dog (Steelers)
Most common: Rams 45 times.
Belichick off a straight-up loss: covered 25 of 34 ATS next game
Bill Belichick with Patriots: 36-19-1 ATS (67%) as underdog.
Patriots as an underdog following a loss: 15-2 ATS
Patriots as an underdog following game as underdog: 16-3 ATS
New England has won 35 of 38 regular season home games (SU)
#1 scoring team Denver has a bigger point differential over the #2 team than the #2 team has over the #31 team.
MNF: 49ers @ Redskins (+5.5) -- 8:40 p.m.
49ers (last 2 games): averaging less than 175 yards of offense
Coach Harbaugh has lost 10 regular season games. Opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only twice.
Since 2001, Monday Night Home underdogs: 30-42 ATS (42%)
(49ers) The week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 46-82 ATS (36% since 2005)
49ers when playing on Monday Night Football have covered an amazing 37 of 49 (76%) against the spread.
Only 2 teams ranked higher than San Fran in the Vegas Rankings
SF: gained least passing yards per game in NFL
Washington: gained most rushing yards per game in NFL
