sorry for the double-bet, but I was in the middle of making the bets when I realized I did the same yesterday and took it all too conservatively for the 2nd to last big tournament of the season. If I'd played my leans I'd be up a nice amount, but oh well. Don't worry, as soon as I up the bets that's probably when I'll go 1-6.
Anyway I'll break down everything.
Karlovic vs Berdych - Karlovic seems like Berdych's kryptonite.. massive serve he can't read (unlike Isner, who he always handles easily) and Ivo leads the H2H 4-2. Taking this chance because Ivo is playing as well as he ever has - he handled Cilic easily and scraped by Lu. Berdych has played 6 matches in 10 days, is he due for a letdown? But I don't believe in "he is due" - Karlovic's serve should confound Berdych, maybe frustrate him, and you'll get a good run for your money. Karlovic +260
Murray vs Ferrer - Murray is on a roll, and I've told people to bet on him.. obviously not always doable with the odds he gets. Ferrer has been very bad during this Asian swing, but the kicker here is that Murray and Ferrer are in the race for the Year-End Championships and this being a 1000 you can rack up the points here easily. Ferrer squeezed by the hot Klizan today and he should be ready for Muzza. Their matches are ALWAYS close. The odds are perfect here, Murray a good favorite, but the ML line dictates the game odds must be one way, which is why I love love love the leeway here. Ferrer +4.5
Simon vs Jaziri - Not much to say.. Jaziri with a cupcake draw. Young missed a massive chance here for points. So disappointing. He beat #553 in the 2nd round, now faces a Simon who is just rolling along. He has beaten some really nice players in the last two weeks, this shouldn't be a problem. Simon -500 for parlay purposes
Isner vs Lopez - These are the spots I love to bet Isner in. Taken a bit for granted, has flown under the radar this tournament, playing on a very fast surface against a mentally fragile guy. Lopez beat Nadal, but then again so did Klizan. In a 50/50 match against a similarly ranked player. This will come down to tiebreaks obviously, and I never bet against Isner in tiebreak situations. Not even against Djokovic. Except against Kohlschreiber. Isner -125
Youzhny vs Monaco - I've been on the Youzhny bandwagon and will be backing him for the 3rd straight match. This guy is great in certain situations, and usually gets ignored. He usually does what he's supposed to do, and sometimes is good for a surprise. He got a tired Gulbis, squeaked through against a solid Dodig. I'm not quite ready to announce Monaco back, but there's no denying he's looked good. Both top 30 players finding form in the right time. Betting this cause I have a thing for Youzhny and I trust him in certain situations.. this is one of those. Gut feeling call. Youzhny -125
Benneteau vs Sock - My favorite play of the day. Sock has been playing very well but Benny has been playing even better. Sock beat a Dolgopolov who was just coming off three months off, and a Nishikori that was dead tired and stated this since this time last week. Bit of a * for those wins. Benny, when he finds is form, is simply awesome on hard courts. QF Indian Wells, SF Cinci, beat peak Gulbis and Dimitrov last two weeks. This is a case of the real deal against a guy who has done a good job with the advantages he was given. If Sock wins, great, but this is a big Benny bet for me. Even convinced myself to put another 150 on him. Benny -150 (favorite play)
Federer vs Batista-Agut - Was lucky enough to see my devastating double loss on Federer/Mayer the whole way through today, Mayer was ballbashing and Fed was shanking and would have lost if not for Mayer choking. RBA is a big time ball basher, Fed won't be able to play defense against his shots if he's on, and he's usually on. Fed was getting pushed around against Mayer ffs. Shanghai is a REALLY FAST court, so even if Fed handled RBA easily in the US Open, this hard court type is completely different. Everyone thinks Federer escaped today but will be fine tomorrow? Will he though? Against a player markedly better in RBA? Batista-Agut +418
Djokovic vs Kukushkin - Kuku has fukked me twice. First winning against Robredo to ruin a 100/100 three teamer, and second winning against Anderson losing me a 100/100 two teamer but more importantly my 50 dollar 7 teamer at +1000 odds. So he is playing very well against two very creditable opponents I hadn't expected him to beat. However.. saying Djokovic is "different" would be an understatement. He can dismantle absolutely anyone, to the point that a guy who beat two top 20 players is a +6.5 game underdog against him. He's been playing well enough to cover BUT Djokovic can destroy anyone if he pleases. And you never know what he's thinking. Kuku +6.5 or no play (no play)
Summary:
Benneteau -150 600/400
Karlovic +260 100/260
Ferrer +4.5 232/200
Simon -500 200/?
Isner -125 250/200
Youzhny -125 250/200
Batista-Agut +418 100/418