for the betters out here, the post your picks thread

[L&HH]

So what are you guys liking for tomorrow? Any sports

Im going to parlay the Skins moneyline with something

 

[L&HH]

what a way to end it

 

[USSInsiders]

Come back kings

 

[USSInsiders]

So what are you guys liking for tomorrow? Any sports

One play that might have A LOT of value is whatever the Phoenix Suns spread opens up at against Miami. They play very hard and can shoot the ball. Honestly though, betting against Miami is always dependent on whether or not they feel like showing up or not so it might not be advisable to bet against them.

I'm gonna guess it opens up at +12.5 or +11.5. Let's see what happens with it, either way it will go up probably

 

[sixsixtwo]

One play that might have A LOT of value is whatever the Phoenix Suns spread opens up at against Miami. They play very hard and can shoot the ball. Honestly though, betting against Miami is always dependent on whether or not they feel like showing up or not so it might not be advisable to bet against them.

I'm gonna guess it opens up at +12.5 or +11.5. Let's see what happens with it, either way it will go up probably

Yep, it's opening at +12..

 

[USSInsiders]

Yep, it's opening at +12..

oh shyt, I didn't even realize there were lines up in vegas. You know you've been doing this too long when you're guessing the spreads before they even open

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

I got a 12 team parlay (similar to that 10 team parlay from earlier) this one for 25 grand..

11 out of 12 hit………Texans/Jags over killed me.

Honestly I just play these big parlays hoping to get a big bankroll honestly. Honestly If I would have hit this I would have just started picking my spots a lot more and started betting around $500 a game (2% of 25,000) and really just stashing it for retirement or something big, not even spending it. Just picking my games and watching it grow overtime.

 

[L&HH]

I got a 12 team parlay (similar to that 10 team parlay from earlier) this one for 25 grand..

11 out of 12 hit………Texans/Jags over killed me.

Honestly I just play these big parlays hoping to get a big bankroll honestly. Honestly If I would have hit this I would have just started picking my spots a lot more and started betting around $500 a game (2% of 25,000) and really just stashing it for retirement or something big, not even spending it. Just picking my games and watching it grow overtime.

you gotta start posting those picks breh

 

[L&HH]

Im getting into an argument with some guy over at covers, I can see why you guys say those guys are idiots.

SOmeone made a thread about a $1000 teaser they have that relies all on 49ers winning tomorrow. Dude made thread wondering if he should hedge or not. The first coupld posts are telling him not to hedge and how hedging is bad. Im expecting to get enlightened with some knowledge as to why, but they give no sound logical reasoning or mathematical reasoning as to why.

This one guy then posts this scenario as to why hedging is bad:

Let's say each week I come up to you with a proposition. Two of them, actually. Each week you can choose one or the other.

Proposition A is this: Each week you pay me one dollar to roll a single, six-sided die. If the die comes up 1 through 5, I win and I keep your dollar. If you roll a 6, I keep the dollar it cost you to play, but in return for rolling that 6 I now give you a ten dollar bill.

Proposition B: I will give you 50 cents to not play the game at all.

Do you choose proposition A or proposition B... and why.


I will save you some time.

A lot of players here like to hedge their bets. I see this question ("Should I hedge?") asked all the time when they've won 3 or 4 or more legs on a parlay card, with one leg to go.

Hedging their bets "guarantees" them a weekend profit, just like Proposition B does.

On a similar note, taking even money on a blackjack when the dealer has an ace as his upcard (taking insurance) guarantees the player a profit... for that hand.

But choosing Proposition A and not taking insurance gives the player more money long term. (And the long term isn't that long at all.)

At the end of every six weeks, the player taking Proposition A will win a LOT more money (25% more) than the person who always takes Proposition B.

A player taking Prop A, every six weeks on average, will show a profit of $4.00. (Six games he paid to play x $1.00 per game = -$6 + one $10.00 win on average = +$4.00)

Player B, of course, will show a profit of $3.00 every six weeks. And, of course, $4.00 is 25% more than $3.00.

As long as you can afford it, you should always pay to take Prop A even if it cost $100 to play I'm willing to give you $50.00 guaranteed each week, to choose prop B.

Think about this the next time you want to hedge. Hedging comes at a price, and you have to pay that price. Hedging costs you money long term. You've got to get out of the mentality of "weekend profit" and think more of "season profit."

If you always hedge your bets and I never hedge my bets, I will have more money than you after a short period of time.

I then retort with this:

I don't agree with this premise at all. There's multiple problems: 1st your assuming an unlimited bankroll and guaranteeing the player will even make it to week six to get that money. Secondly you're misunderstanding probability by guaranteeing a win EVERY SIX weeks. THATS NOT HOW IT WORKS, you're going to need a MUCH larger sample size than 6 weeks to guarantee anything. You could go on a 20 week cold streak and then what? In your example you'd keep on playing until you hit. That's cool if you have an unlimited bankroll, but NO ONE does.

You go on to say "as long as you can afford it" but you're already assuming that the person can afford.

In reality most ppl can't "afford" it.

And like someone else pointed out, your assuming every parlay has the same EXACT value, when they don't. The two scenarios your comparing are very unlike one another.

Somebody please tell me if Im wrong

 

[USSInsiders]

Im getting into an argument with some guy over at covers, I can see why you guys say those guys are idiots.

SOmeone made a thread about a $1000 teaser they have that relies all on 49ers winning tomorrow. Dude made thread wondering if he should hedge or not. The first coupld posts are telling him not to hedge and how hedging is bad. Im expecting to get enlightened with some knowledge as to why, but they give no sound logical reasoning or mathematical reasoning as to why.

This one guy then posts this scenario as to why hedging is bad:



I then retort with this:



Somebody please tell me if Im wrong

Believe it or not, I was going to tell you not to hedge earlier for this same reason when you were mentioning making a play on the Broncos when they were down: hedging down the line will cost you profit in the long run, but it can be a smart play in instances where you're down.

There are different schools of thought. There are those who use mathematics and show that over a course of time, hedging will cost you profit (and it does), and there are those who think hedging is smart because it guarantees you profit.

Honestly, it comes down to personal preference. If I have a huge parlay or teaser or some shyt like that, I'm sure as hell going to hedge if it comes down to one play and there's a huge potential for profit either way I play.

I usually don't like hedging though because there's been many instances where I've gambled back money I would've won had I just not caved in to the fear of losing.

At the end of the day, hedging is at the discretion of the bettor.

 

[Bernie Madoff]

Im getting into an argument with some guy over at covers, I can see why you guys say those guys are idiots.

SOmeone made a thread about a $1000 teaser they have that relies all on 49ers winning tomorrow. Dude made thread wondering if he should hedge or not. The first coupld posts are telling him not to hedge and how hedging is bad. Im expecting to get enlightened with some knowledge as to why, but they give no sound logical reasoning or mathematical reasoning as to why.

This one guy then posts this scenario as to why hedging is bad:



I then retort with this:



Somebody please tell me if Im wrong

It would make zero sense not to hedge that bet to make back what was invested into the original parlay.

 

[USSInsiders]

I got a 12 team parlay (similar to that 10 team parlay from earlier) this one for 25 grand..

11 out of 12 hit………Texans/Jags over killed me.

Honestly I just play these big parlays hoping to get a big bankroll honestly. Honestly If I would have hit this I would have just started picking my spots a lot more and started betting around $500 a game (2% of 25,000) and really just stashing it for retirement or something big, not even spending it. Just picking my games and watching it grow overtime.

Dun imagine if you made all of those as straight bets. get you an online account if you don't have on already

 

[L&HH]

Believe it or not, I was going to tell you not to hedge earlier for this same reason when you were mentioning making a play on the Broncos when they were down: hedging down the line will cost you profit in the long run, but it can be a smart play in instances where you're down.

There are different schools of thought. There are those who use mathematics and show that over a course of time, hedging will cost you profit (and it does), and there are those who think hedging is smart because it guarantees you profit.

Honestly, it comes down to personal preference. If I have a huge parlay or teaser or some shyt like that, I'm sure as hell going to hedge if it comes down to one play and there's a huge potential for profit either way I play.

I usually don't like hedging though because there's been many instances where I've gambled back money I would've won had I just not caved in to the fear of losing.

At the end of the day, hedging is at the discretion of the bettor.

It would make zero sense not to hedge that bet to make back what was invested into the original parlay.

This is what I think. If you can hedge at least win back what you can potentially lose on the play of it doesnt hit. Anything more and @BuddyOmar you're correct, that's to the discretion of the bettor. The problem imo with the longterm thing is, the opportunity for you to hit on another parlay can be a looooooooongggg time, and each play lessons your bankroll even more. The more money you have the more value your parlays can have because there's more money available for them.
Another thing the ability to hedge will be there much more frequently than winning parlays straight out. We'll use the parlay scenario originally presented. $1000 parlay. The probability of you hitting your parlay is only 14%....therefore over 100 parlays played you will only hit 14 of them with a total of $14,000. Now instead of relying on the parlay you decide to hedge, right now the Skins are +180 on the m/l so if you hedged $200 on them you'd win $360. Now take that over 100 plays. You'll win 14 of them for (1000-200) each time of $11,200 but of the 86 times you missed, you still get $360 each time for a total of $30,960 so over a 100 plays of hedging you'll have a total of $42,160 (I didnt substract the cost of the original bet) verse the $14,000 is you play it out....

 

[L&HH]

^^^There are holes in the argument I presented above. For one you can't use the "14%" value of hitting parlays, since it comes down to the last play. You'd have to use the individual value % of the last play hitting. The problem with that is each % will be different depending on the play. For example if he had the Redskins moneyline instead that value would be much lower than the 9ers moneyline but the payout would be greater. Basically it's a case by case basis but when you factor in the "dry spells" you can take with parlays in general, it's always better to take the money when it's available.

 

[L&HH]

Another guy refuted with this as to why somebody should hedge:

My God some people are stupid.

If you bet $2000 on a game and your team is up by 14 with 3 minutes to go and I offer you to take $1000 right there and then to cancel your wager, would you take it? No, why not? It's guaranteed money.

Oh well it's because you're way ahead right. You're whiling to risk my $1000 plus your already $2000 at risk to make that extra $1000.

Well it's the same for hedging the last leg, you are always giving up a little more (juice) than the intrinsic value of your ticket.

I then said this:

No those two scenarios you stated are NOT THE SAME. In the scenario you fabricated the % percentage of you winning your parlay in that instance is the exact % of a team winning a game being up 14 with 3min left to play which is probably somewhere north of 90%.. In the OP's scenario the % of him hitting this parlay is the % of the 9ers winning THIS GAME which IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR 90%....