Trump is not running in 2024. The national party has already moved on from him. His power is local/regional. Once you're in your 70s, a lot goes downhill in just 3/4 years.
Regarding DeSantis the big advantage he'll have over either candidate is that GOP is close to overtaking the Dems in the number of registered voters. Amazingly enough even though Florida is now reliably "red", the Dems have actually always had a pretty sizable lead in registered voters. A lot of conservatives are moving to Florida bc of this reputation as a conservative oasis.
He also has close to $50M in the bank - by the time the election rolls around he might double that, esp if the presidential talk continues. Donors want to be able to say they supported him from the beginning.
The thing about covid is that even though his approach may not be popular you gotta realize that the overwhelming majority of the deaths/hospitalizations etc are among the unvaccinated - these are ppl that are going to support him anyways. Right now 62% of Floridians vaccinated. Obviously some of the 38% unvaccinated are kids, but just like EVERY other hot button issue there is a solid 30% who are fully onboard with the trumpian/desantis worldview. Only time will tell if the anti desantis sentiment is strong enough to last if covid is less of a story next year.
Crist would absolutely have a better shot against DeSantis. People already know him and he's always been considered a likable guy in the state. If something happens that causes support for DeSantis to crater (quid pro quo documented corruption or if we find out later on that way more ppl died in FL and that administration deliberately lied/covered up), voters IMO are more likely to revert to someone they know/like and feel is capable of the job. Unfortunately as a woman in a red state, Fried is going to start with a 5-10 pt deficit. These kinds of states will vote women/minorities into some statewide positions but not governor.