Does anyone know the ratio of Fed cuts to commercial rate cuts? iirc it's not 1 to 1
So a half point Fed cut could mean avg commercial rates go from 6% to like 5% or something like that
Dow already up 300 points since the announcement
ChatGPT Answer:
The relationship between Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and changes in commercial interest rates, such as those for mortgages and other loans, is not a simple 1-to-1 ratio. A
half-point Fed rate cut doesn’t automatically translate into an equivalent reduction in mortgage or housing interest rates. Here’s why:
- Transmission Mechanism: The Fed controls the federal funds rate, which is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. This rate affects short-term borrowing costs but indirectly influences longer-term rates, like mortgages. Mortgage rates are more closely tied to the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds than to the Fed funds rate. These bond yields fluctuate based on investor expectations about inflation, economic growth, and other factors.
- Lag and Market Reaction: Mortgage lenders consider factors like inflation, credit risk, and economic conditions. After a Fed rate cut, banks may take time to adjust their commercial lending rates. Additionally, financial markets tend to anticipate Fed decisions, so mortgage rates may already reflect expectations of a Fed cut before it happens.
- Magnitude of Change: Historically, a 0.5% (50 basis point) Fed rate cut might lead to mortgage rate reductions that are less than 0.5%. This is because lenders don’t pass on the full cut; the reduction is often smaller due to factors like profit margins, borrower demand, and risk assessments.
- Consumer Rate Variability: Different types of loans are affected differently. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), which are tied more directly to short-term rates, will likely respond more to Fed cuts than fixed-rate mortgages.
Example:
If the Fed cuts rates by 0.5%, mortgage rates might fall by
0.1% to 0.25%, depending on market conditions. However, if the economy is perceived to be weakening, mortgage rates could fall more sharply as investors seek the safety of long-term Treasury bonds, pushing yields (and mortgage rates) lower.
In summary, a half-point Fed cut would likely lead to some reduction in housing interest rates, but the impact may not be proportional or immediate.