1. Move on from Aaron Rodgers. This one's easy. The Jets will have to designate Rodgers as a post-June 1 release, which would free up $9.5 million in cap savings in 2025, albeit at the expense of $35 million in dead money in 2026. Rodgers was owed $37.5 million in cash, all of which is unguaranteed. The Jets could technically wait until the day before the regular season to make this move, given that his base salary is only $2.5 million and wouldn't be difficult to carry throughout the spring and summer, but it's time for the organization to be decisive.
2. Also move on from as many of the Rodgers trappings as possible. It's time for a reset. All the stuff the Jets brought in to support Rodgers has to go. Backup quarterback
Tim Boyle and receiver
Randall Cobb didn't return for 2024, but there's no reason to keep Rodgers' support staff around for another year. Wideout
Allen Lazard's $11 million base salary for 2025 is unguaranteed and not justified by his production. Nathaniel Hackett already has been
deposed as offensive playcaller and doesn't have the sort of résumé that justifies his return.
And yes, that also includes
Davante Adams. I know the Jets
sent a third-round pick to the Raiders to acquire Adams, but without the Rodgers connection, there's no strong case for bringing him back. Adams turns 32 on Christmas Eve, and his production has declined by 25% between the 2022 season with the Raiders and his work in 2023 and 2024 with Vegas and New York. Drops and mental mistakes, such as going out of bounds late in the game
against the Dolphins on Sunday to open up an opportunity for Miami to launch a last-second comeback, aren't helping matters.
Adams is still a good player, but his contract is about to pay the three-time All-Pro like he's prime
Justin Jefferson. His base salary spikes to $35.6 million in 2025 and 2026, a contract mechanism that was designed to both report an inflated figure when it was signed and trigger a renegotiation when it arrived. The hope naturally was that he would be playing well enough to earn another significant extension, but he wouldn't get that sort of deal on the open market.
There's just no realistic way Adams will be back with the Jets on that figure in 2025. They could try to negotiate a pay cut, but given the expected departure of Rodgers and the uncertainty about the team's chances of competing, Adams might prefer to go somewhere else. I can't imagine any other team paying him north of $35 million per season, so even a trade would have to come with a pay cut, which means he would essentially have to approve any deal.
In what looks like a deep market for veteran wide receivers, Adams' age and declining production might limit his suitors. My guess is he will likely land something more like $12 million per season on a short-term deal. If the Jets can get him to take a pay cut into that range, they should bring him back. If not, they need to treat the trade for him as part of the Rodgers sunk cost and move on.
3. Pursue a coach with experience who can rebuild the team's culture. Organizations usually replace the coach they fired with someone who represents the polar opposite of that coach stylistically. The Jets fired defensive-minded coach Todd Bowles
in 2018 and
replaced him with an offense-first (in theory) option in Adam Gase. When Gase failed, the Jets
fired him in 2021 and
turned to Robert Saleh, another option whose roots are on defense.
Given that habit and the questions about what they'll do at quarterback after moving on from Rodgers, I wouldn't be shocked if the Jets hired a coach with an offensive background. Are there really great options available on that front? I'm not so sure. On the coordinator side, Bobby Slowik has had a rough year in Houston. Arthur Smith didn't wow during his time in Atlanta as a head coach. Kellen Moore was once thought of as a head-coach-in-waiting, but he has been with three organizations in three years and might not be ready to take over. There's a big drop-off from Detroit OC Ben Johnson to the other candidates, and precious few have the experience of building a culture and handling major media markets. Matt Nagy is one of the few coordinators with head-coaching experience, but the Jets probably don't want to go down that road.
And likewise, at the college level, there isn't the ready-made option Jim Harbaugh was for the Chargers a year ago. Lincoln Riley has struggled since joining USC. Steve Sarkisian might be settled at Texas. Dan Lanning isn't leaving Oregon. Ryan Day could become available if Ohio State fires him, but that's a slim group of potential coaches.
The logical fit might be the guy rumored to be in the running to replace Day if the Buckeyes let their coach go. Mike Vrabel went 54-45 in six years with the Titans, which gives him a leg up on just about every other Jets coach in history; the only one to be in the job for more than a year who finished his tenure with a winning record was Bill Parcells. Vrabel was regarded as an elite coach at his best, although the bottom fell out after his final two seasons in Nashville. He spent most of his playing career dealing with the media in Boston and has the credibility and charisma to handle the pressures of both reporters and fans in New York.
Frankly, looking around the market, there aren't many options with more impressive résumés available. Vrabel wouldn't be the offensive coach Jets fans might hope to see walk through the doors in Florham Park, but he would be a more experienced option than former Jets cornerback (and current Lions defensive coordinator) Aaron Glenn, another top choice for the role.
