Kingshango
Veteran
Antagonizing the final boss of basic white women is not gonna end well. 
Dumb Don: “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!”
- Thread starter Arithmetic
- Start date
Elim Garak
Veteran
I think he has almost no chance of winning. I don't give a damn what a poll says. Them voter registration numbers, fundraising, and of course his trash campaigning tells me he's going to lose. The only reason he even has a shot is because of this trash system.
Cat piss martini
Veteran
Further solidifying the fact that known Trump supporters should be ostracized publicly.
All of that applied to 2020, plus the economy was trash and his Covid/Floyd responses were terrible.....and he still BARELY lost.
90% of the time the idiot voters in the middle just reflexively go with their feelings about the economy regardless of anything else the candidate does. Add in the cult following and Kamala's unpopularity and it's a historical upset for him to lose this election. The ONLY reason he might do it is because he's screwed up in so many ways.
Elim Garak
Veteran
Nah he's running a far worse campaign this time lol. Far far worse. Obviously it will technically be close because of the Electoral College. I bet all my coli cash it's over though.
How good/bad a campaign he runs is completely irrelevant to who votes for him. No one is deciding based on his campaign.
In 2020, he had just been impeached, said to ignore Covid and it would all go away, then he pushed horse dewormer followed by bleach, got Covid himself cause he was refusing to isolate, campaign went on hold cause everything was shut down then went on hold cause he got Covid, rallies kept being criticized for lack of social distancing, repeatedly implied he would not accept the election results if he lost, told the Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by" during the debates, lost two debates to fukking Biden and tied the other. And all that time the economy was trash, his handling of Covid was trash, and his handling of racial unrest was trash.
That was a HORRIBLE campaign by Trump, under economic and social circumstances that should have aboslutely sunk him....and he still came less than 50,000 votes from winning.
That doesn't matter. Unless young people and white women come out hard for Kamala, Trump will win.
Elim Garak
Veteran
Complete bullshyt, campaigning is highly important. Yes you have your base support who will vote for you. However you have undecided voters and others who you are trying to convince.
Hillary Clinton thinking she didn't need. We know it's going to be close because of the Electoral College advantage Republicans have with rural voters. It's always going to be close because of the Electoral College in that context. However it's over Trump has fukked this up lol.
Elim Garak
Veteran
Of course she has to get turnout. That's obvious. That won't be a problem for her.
Elim Garak
Veteran
Oh don't quote me anymore because I won't be responding lol. He's going to lose.
I Really Mean It
Veteran
what? polling in battleground states doesn’t favor trump.
I Really Mean It
Veteran
yea, dudes in here who normally pretend to be kamala supporters are posting dumb shyt.
in no credible aggregate is trump outpacing kamala nationally or in swing states.
it is still her race to lose.
Latest Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Latest poll in Arizona has Trump +2
Latest poll in Georgia has them even, but Trump was up +2 to +4 in the three polls before that
Latest poll in Michigan has Trump +1
Latest poll in Nevada has Trump +1
Latest poll in North Carolina has Trump +3
Latest poll in Pennsylvania has them even
Latest poll in Wisconsin has Harris +2
The aggregate still has Harris up in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, but only by 0.5 in Pennsulvania and 0.1 in Nevada, which is effectively tied in both. She's only up 1.5 in Michigan and 2.7 in Wisconsin, which is WAY too close considering past election trends and the fact that Trump has been underpolled there in recent elections.
Remember that Hillary lost every one of those states other than Nevada. Harris needs all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin at the least (and Wisconsin has shifted by 4-5 in Trump's direction on election day in both of the last two elections). If she loses Michigan, then she needs Nevada plus either Arizona or Georgia to make up for it. If she loses Pennsylvania, then she needs Arizona AND Georgia to make up for it.
I don't see how anyone can assume ANYTHING with numbers like that, especially since Harris should be having a debate/Swift/catsdogs bump and Trump has outperformed his polling two elections in a row. There has not been a single point since Harris entered the race where an objective poller could give her anything better than 50-50 odds.
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