At the end of the day, it all comes down to the jobs report due out on Friday.
If it's good (or at least shows something positive), Obama will probably win. It'll be a post convention momentum booster Team Romney will not be able to overcome.
But, if it's bad, it'll kill any momentum Team Obama gets out of the convention. It'll also allow Team Romney to begin the relentless assault via their ad buys in key states. The assault will continue until election day.
In sum:
Good jobs report on Friday: Obama wins
Bad jobs report (or no change from last month's report): Obama loses.
If it's good (or at least shows something positive), Obama will probably win. It'll be a post convention momentum booster Team Romney will not be able to overcome.
But, if it's bad, it'll kill any momentum Team Obama gets out of the convention. It'll also allow Team Romney to begin the relentless assault via their ad buys in key states. The assault will continue until election day.
In sum:
Good jobs report on Friday: Obama wins
Bad jobs report (or no change from last month's report): Obama loses.