COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)

[Dr. Acula]

Many are basing it on the Spanish Flu pandemic while constantly saying "THIS AIN'T THE FLU!!!!!!!!!"

Also, it will be the seasonal flu that could allow for a number of COVID deaths this fall/winter because while flu doesn't normally kill young healthy adults it does create moderate to severe symptoms and weaken these young healthy adults allowing for an opportunistic COVID infection to take them out.

The Spanish Flu was a version of "Influenza" (H1N1) but despite that, its not the same virus as we associate with the yearly flu. I believe those typically go by "influenza A" and "influenza B". For a historical perspective, even doctors during the 1918 breakout made sure to make the distinction between the common flu that came yearly and waht they were seeing. Particularly what made the 1918 pandemic standout was that typically flus up to that point killed only the youngest and the most elderly while the 1918 outbreak was killing people in their 20's at rapid rates. So, even in that case, the virus from that time period despite being influenza was recognized as noticeably different than the "yearly flu" we typically deal with.

Influenza is a family of viruses that contain many variations, just like coronavirus contains SARS, MERS, SARS2 (The current pandemic), and also the common cold. But obviously all these coronaviruses aren't equal. So comparing this to the Spanish Flu isn't the same as comparing it to the normal flu which a lot of people were doing.

Besides, I don't think anyone can make parallels to the 1918 flu outbreak yet just based on raw numbers. The only way that people so far have really been comparing this to the Spanish flu is based on a predicted second wave which the Spanish flu did have which made it also notable since most of the deaths from that pandemic came over a few weeks in that second wave that was way more deadly than the first wave. But, for all we know lets say there is a second wave, it could actually be milder and that is a possibility. Also viruses have a habit of mutating rapidly and more often than not they mutate into something less harmful. Just to make the 1918 comparison again, this is actually what happened with H1N1 during that time where it came in during the second wave and killed a ton of people and then mutated to a much more harmless form and just disappeared until it made a resurgence in Mexico and the US in 2009 and also I believe in India around 2015 or 2017. I can't remember what year it was. This could happen here too. We don't know.

 

[the bossman]

If this thing has been floating around as long as I think it has then we may be closer to herd immunity than we thought. I think this thing is here to stay tho. So idk if we will be getting waves like people think but there will be outbreaks in places obviously like there is with any virus. Either way I’m still taking precautions and will continue to

Sweden did very little lockdown and recently barely arrived at 7% for people who developed antibodies.

 

[BmoreGorilla]

Sweden did very little lockdown and recently barely arrived at 7% for people who developed antibodies.

Do we know how long it’s been in Sweden?

 

[$cam-U-Well_Jack$on]

I was out riding my bike in Atlanta this weekend and mufukkas gonna definitely get that work this fall/winter. Black/white people was out and congregated like shyt was all good (Beltline/Piedmont park) and VERY FEW (less than 10%) of people had on mask. It's gonna be a scene to see soon

I miss da Beltline & collecting Evereman trinkets.

 

[null]

Do we know how long it’s been in Sweden?

"The virus was confirmed to have reached Sweden on 31 January 2020, when a woman returning from Wuhan tested positive. On 26 February, following outbreaks in Italy and in Iran, multiple travel-related clusters appeared in Sweden. Community transmission was confirmed on 9 March in the Stockholm region. Since then, individuals in every län (county) have tested positive for COVID-19. The first death was reported on 11 March in Stockholm, a case of community transmission."

COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden - Wikipedia

 

[Theo Penn]

The Spanish Flu was a version of "Influenza" (H1N1) but despite that, its not the same virus as we associate with the yearly flu. I believe those typically go by "influenza A" and "influenza B". For a historical perspective, even doctors during the 1918 breakout made sure to make the distinction between the common flu that came yearly and waht they were seeing. Particularly what made the 1918 pandemic standout was that typically flus up to that point killed only the youngest and the most elderly while the 1918 outbreak was killing people in their 20's at rapid rates. So, even in that case, the virus from that time period despite being influenza was recognized as noticeably different than the "yearly flu" we typically deal with.

Influenza is a family of viruses that contain many variations, just like coronavirus contains SARS, MERS, SARS2 (The current pandemic), and also the common cold. But obviously all these coronaviruses aren't equal. So comparing this to the Spanish Flu isn't the same as comparing it to the normal flu which a lot of people were doing.

Besides, I don't think anyone can make parallels to the 1918 flu outbreak yet just based on raw numbers. The only way that people so far have really been comparing this to the Spanish flu is based on a predicted second wave which the Spanish flu did have which made it also notable since most of the deaths from that pandemic came over a few weeks in that second wave that was way more deadly than the first wave. But, for all we know lets say there is a second wave, it could actually be milder and that is a possibility. Also viruses have a habit of mutating rapidly and more often than not they mutate into something less harmful. Just to make the 1918 comparison again, this is actually what happened with H1N1 during that time where it came in during the second wave and killed a ton of people and then mutated to a much more harmless form and just disappeared until it made a resurgence in Mexico and the US in 2009 and also I believe in India around 2015 or 2017. I can't remember what year it was. This could happen here too. We don't know.

Real talk. Preparation needs to be made to help mitigate the worst case scenario

 

[eXodus]

Yea people are quick to say this ain’t the flu but stay comparing it to the Spanish Flu


But that’s neither here or there. If this thing has been floating around as long as I think it has then we may be closer to herd immunity than we thought. I think this thing is here to stay tho. So idk if we will be getting waves like people think but there will be outbreaks in places obviously like there is with any virus. Either way I’m still taking precautions and will continue to

Well, i mean when people say it isn't the flu.. they are saying that its more virulent and has a more aggressive disease progression than seasonal influenza that we deal with every year. Because of that, our methods in managing seasonal influenza won't really provide us much perspective on how to deal with Sars Cov2.

"its not the flu" aka it has major differences from seasonal influenza so we have to approach our pharmaceutical efforts and non-pharmaceutical interventions from a different angle.

Sars. Cov2 stands out not because of how virulent it is necessarily but because of the fact that its diesase progression is rather new/strange and it's particularly deadly. I'm sure there were "waves" of Swine Flu (H1N1), it just wasn't noticed or as studied because it wasn't as deadly of a pathogen.

"CDC estimates there were 60.8 million cases of swine flu, with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths — that's a mortality rate of about 0.02%." (Keep in mind, those numbers are for the US from April 2009 to August 2010, so a long stretch of time if just comparing death tolls of 5 months with this which is basically 8-10 times higher already starting from a baseline of 100,000 deaths)

Exposure to previous strains of flu virus offered protection from this strain because it wasn't too different from previously circulating strains. Our immune systems react to proteins on the surface of a virus and make antibodies..since that version of the virus wasn't radically different than what we were typically exposed to, the protection was enough to fight off the viral loads for most people.

But the further away a new strain is genetically from the ones the body has previously been exposed to, the more different the surface proteins, the less effective the antibodies and the more likely you'll get infected/have a tough run with that virus. Your body just can't beat it! That's why The Spanish Flu (H1N1), in theory was such a problem.

“We believe that the mismatch between antibodies trained to H3 virus protein and the H1 protein of the 1918 virus may have resulted in the heightened mortality in the age group that happened to be in their late 20s during the pandemic.”

So if comparing it to past pandemics, Sars.Cov2's virulence suggests that the previously circulating coronaviruses havn't really prepared our immune systems for this.


Again, to address the waves thing my man..this has a tendency to happen with new strains of viruses. H3N2 for example had waves in the 60s.. and mainly because peoples immune systems didn't have antibodies from a similar enough pathogen to provide protection so the mutated form of the virus essentially made rounds until most people eventually caught it.

With the seasonal flus, like H3N2, antigenic drift is continual. The accumulated effects of antigenic drift, however, can result in viruses that are so different from the original virus that the immune system doesn’t recognize them. Whether it will play a role in COVID-19 is still unknown.
Because H3N2 was closely related to the 1957 pandemic, many people were immune. This kept the 1968 H3N2 flu epidemic relatively mild, especially when compared to the 1918 Spanish flu. For some reason, however – possibly antigenic drift – the second wave of the H3N2 flu that struck in 1969 was more deadly.
Differences in immunity are evident as the virus mutated during its global spread, as shown by the different patterns of infection and death.

It can go either way and hopefully like you and @Dr. Acula said, it becomes less virulent and less aggressive in its pathogenesis over time and I'm not predicting one thing or the other. I just feel we need to prepare as if the worst-case scenario is coming and plan accordingly. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

 

[CreepyMcCreeperson]

 

[AAKing23]

Personally I think this is the second wave of this virus we are dealing with. Question for those of y’all who don’t. What makes y’all think that a second wave would be worse than the first one?

No it's not, I say that because the second wave will be when everyone has let their guard down after a drastic decrease in the amount of cases related to the first wave (like we are beginning to see right now)

Which is why it's so dangerous, people ain't gonna be wearing masks by the time regular flu season comes back around plus with coronavirus lurking in the cut and spreading unknowingly it's a recipe for disaster

 

[AAKing23]

I don’t get this second wave talk. Sure 1918 had one but why does that mean this virus will?

Whats strange to me is that it hit NY and Italy and Brazil so hard, but now is tapering off. Like it has this insane peak and consistently everywhere it tapers off. If ifs so infectious shouldn’t it keep doing damage until it cycles through the whole population

Unless theres way more asymptotic cases and we are already nearing herd immunity

Given all the uncertainty, stay safe all!

There will have to be a second wave, that naturally happens whenever people let their guard down, it's happened in every one of the early countries that dealt with the virus


Now how bad it'll be? Nobody knows because that depends on many things. Being that America has handled this virus far worse than any other country in the world I wouldn't be very optimistic about it tho

 

[Stir Fry]

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[null]

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DP spoke about the disinformation war not too long ago

 

[MenacingMonk]

Starting to see more planes back in the air.

 

[knickscity]

Trump is pure idiot. I cant wait for this dude to be out of office.

 

[null]

No! There is hope ....

"Superdrug [Chemist] today became the first [UK] high street retailer to start selling a coronavirus antibody test to the public and has sold out in a matter of hours."

Actually now the UK govt is stopping private over-the-counter consumer tests (according to the Daily Mail)

"British health officials have told companies offering Covid-19 antibody tests to stop processing blood samples from patients in the UK, MailOnline can reveal.

Private tests to see whether people have already had the disease and recovered are now available from various online pharmacies from around £69.

Superdrug became the first high street retailer to offer the service and numerous websites offer similar tests, including Lloyds Pharmacy.

But now the Government, which has previously been accused of trying to take control of coronavirus testing among the public, has slammed the brakes on private tests.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has confirmed that they have told firms to stop analysing the blood samples people submit for testing.

'Patient safety and public health are our main priorities and it is in the interests of everyone for antibody tests to be as reliable and meaningful as they can be,' a spokesperson told MailOnline.

'There are several UK providers of testing services who offer COVID19 antibody testing using a fingerprick sample of capillary blood collected in a small container

'We are asking all providers of laboratory-based COVID-19 antibody testing services using capillary blood collected by a fingerprick to temporarily stop providing this service until home collection of this sample type has been properly validated for use with these laboratory tests.'"

Coronavirus UK: MHR tells labs to STOP analysing home tests | Daily Mail Online