Coronavirus Thread: Worldwide Pandemic

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eXodus said:
You ain’t gotta explain yourself, man, every credible scientific study thus far has found that it’s more transmissible than influenza (R0 rating well over R2) and has a case mortality rate between .25 and 4 percent. If you do the math, those numbers are a possibility.

That’s why schools are closed in Japan through April, that’s why South Korea has tested over 60,000 people.. this shyt has the potential to be bad and governments have to take it seriously to mitigate what will most certainly be a pandemic. Nothing you said was sensationalist
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You too.
:dwillhuh:

So let's get back to ration, logical thinking instead of forecasting 45 million dead.

Where does this 45 million dead come from when?

Because with the use of the S.I.R. model used to forecast nearly ever pandemic ever made since its inception doesn't even come close to that.

The same S.I.R model predicated the levelling off of China's case at 84,100.

45 million dead is senselessly sensationalism.

Japanese closed schools because the golden week is fast approaching, the most active period of Japanese people outside. As well I was just in Japan during the beginning of February end of January for the Chinese new year and they weren't taking any precautions so ABE is playing catch-up. I landed back in Taiwan and gad to fill out a questionnaire.

Closing schools as a precaution, the same actions taken ken when a typhoon is predicted to hit any Asian country in its path.

Let's get back to rational, logical thinking.
 
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eXodus

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Arbitrage! said:
You too.
:dwillhuh:

So let's get back to ration, logical thinking instead of forecasting 45 million dead.

Where does this 45 million dead come from when?

Because with the use of the S.I.R. model used to forecast nearly ever pandemic ever made since its inception doesn't even come close to that.

The same S.I.R model predicated the levelling off of China's case at 84,100.

45 million dead is senselessly sensationalism.

Japanese closed schools because the golden week is fast approaching, the most active period of Japanese people outside. As well I was just in Japan during the beginning of February end of January for the Chinese new year and they weren't taking any precautions so ABE is playing catch-up. Closing schools is a precaution, same ore action taken when a typhoon is predicted to hit any Asian country in its path.

Let's get back to rational, logical thinking.
Click to expand...


Sorry my phone died.

Good post bro, yea I don’t think it will be be 40 million dead globally but too be clear, a disease this transmissive could infect a large minority of the population (influenza had 45 million cases between Oct 1 and now in the US with a vaccine) thats 14% of the population in half a year. So without serious infectious disease prevention measures, we could conceivably see a worse spread with Sars Cov 2 being it is a more infectious virus. Flu don’t live on surfaces for up to 9 days. Actually just 24 hours. This shyt theoretically does. If 45 million Americans can get the flu in a year, 500 mil (globally) can conceivably get this infectious piece of shyt virus. 1% case mortality rate of that is 5 mil. If we’re not careful.. globally, this is conceivable.

the SIR model has limitations that could be problematic for this particular virus..you have to use SEIR



(Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered),

This is more appropriate because the nCov virus has a significant incubation period. That radically alters the basic reproductive number especially when China’s data has been funny style and country’s like the US aren’t even testing (which is ridiculous) Any and all of algorithms are only as good as their data. Google Flu Trends, underestimated the spread of flu by 140% in 2013 using similar models lol


This modelling here for China wasn’t bad
The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with Rt = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020.
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so these are spot on BUT with extremely draconian interventions by the Chinese government that would not work in the US. nikkas ain’t taking passes that get stamped where you can only have 1 person leave the house every 3 days to get groceries here.

Nearly half of their population (780 million people) were under some form of travel restriction.

Total cases in China as of Feb 29: 79,826
that’s very close to being in line with the 2nd estimated number of 70,000 — which shows a basic reproductive number of 2.6. Now this 2.6 is with the entire country shut down. I do not think, this just peaks and goes away once people start going back to work in China. Hopefully so, but I’m doubtful.

There’s a significant chance there will be a second wave there. But we will see.


In addition to the numbers even the SIR/SEIR models have other limitations, which have huge implications. These are a few assumptions they had to make in one study to complete the model:


Our study does have several inherent limitations. First, because most parameters regarding 2019-nCoV remains unknown, especially ones at different countries other than China, we had to rely on arbitrary numbers, and they may not be accurate. Second, there is hypothesis that asymptomatic patients could be infectious to others [13], although how frequently this occurs remains unknown. We did not incorporate this hypothesis into our analysis. Third, we assumed that there would be no nosocomial outbreak of 2019-nCoV in a region we hypothesized, presuming adequate infection control practices could prevent this to occur. However, breach of infection control practice could happen in any area and we had nosocomial outbreaks of imported infections in developed nations such as Canada [14], the United States [15], and South Korea.
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they did not account for asymptomatic transmission and are assuming that US will not breach infection control practices. There’s been several instances of the latter already. I’ve seen certain estimates, that without proper precautions and if the virus transmits asymptotically, the basic reproductive # could be as high as r7 in certain situations. shyt it was like r14 in the diamond Princess.
 
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newworldafro

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