Coli centrists, what's so great about centrism: come in here and sell us on your political leaning

[Professor Emeritus]

http://[URL]https://www.usatoday.co...america-county-results-more-voters/6226197002

/[/URL]

if yall want to dismiss my example of the motivated HS grad who wants to teach, i'm done hearing about this phantom candidate that's going to get young people to vote...wasn't bernie that and young people turned out in lower numbers his second time around?

Bernie drove the highest-ever turnout of youth voters in the 2020 Iowa caucuses.


And young people voted for him like crazy in 2016, especially in the early primaries where he was still viewed as having a chance. Bernie got more young voters in the primaries than Clinton and Trump combined. Just as for Obama, they were a major boost to his candidacy. It's likely that would have carried through even stronger to the general election.

The problem with young and leftist voters is that they've been repeatedly burned and are deeply cynical. once Clinton had wrapped up the nomination in 2016, you weren't going to see them just keep showing up to the polls to virtue signal for their candidate like the older voters do. And with all the ways that the Democratic party appeared to tip the scales in 2016, there was significant distrust in 2020 and a (well justified) feeling that the Dems were going to fukk Bernie over no matter how well he did. Once South Carolina happened and their fears were proven, why the fukk were they gonna keep showing up, especially with BLM, Covid, and everything else going on?

But in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, before the Dems were able to pull their bullshyt in full force, Sanders was being propelled by a huge youth wave.

Young People Make Up Historic Share of Iowa Caucus goers, Boost Bernie Sanders​

February 6, 2020
Nearly 1 in 4 Iowa caucusgoers was under age 30, and their strong preference for Senator Sanders propelled him toward a top finish.

Young people had an extraordinary impact on the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. We estimate that 8% of youth in the state (ages 17-29) participated in the Democratic caucuses—making up a 24% share of all caucusgoers, the highest we’ve ever seen in this contest. According to entrance poll data, 48% of young people went into the caucuses supporting Bernie Sanders, followed by 19% for Pete Buttigieg, 12% for Elizabeth Warren, 10% for Andrew Yang, 4% for Amy Klobuchar, and 3% for Joe Biden. While we cannot know young people’s final level of support for each candidate after the in-caucus realignments, it is evident that youth support for Buttigieg and, especially, Sanders, was key to their strong performances in the state: Sanders received the most votes and, with 97% of precincts reporting, they are locked in a dead heat for the most state delegate equivalents.

Young People Make Up Historic Share of Iowa Caucusgoers, Boost Bernie Sanders

Young people had an extraordinary impact on the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. We estimate that 8% of youth in the state (ages 17-29) participated in the Democratic caucuses—making up a 24% share of all caucusgoers, the highest we’ve ever seen in this contest. According to entrance poll...

circle.tufts.edu

Half of Young Voters Back Sanders, Propel Him to New Hampshire Victory

As they did a week before in Iowa, young people had a decisive influence on the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary. We estimate that 19% of all eligible young people voted in the Democratic primary, and according to exit poll data youth made up 14% of the primary electorate.[1] As in Iowa...

circle.tufts.edu

Exclusive Analysis: In Nevada, young people once again force behind Sanders’s victory

MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE, Mass. (Feb. 24, 2020)—Young primary and caucus voters continue to show overwhelming support for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders so far, according

now.tufts.edu

Since you were wrong about Bernie Sanders failing to motivate young voters (at least until the Democratic party destroyed his chances), will that change your perceptions?

 

[LOST IN THE SAUCE]

im not talking about whining because the party isnt as far left as they want it to be

but carry on, berniewood

When progressives criticize, it's whining, but when you're complaining all over this forum about having to put on a mask every time you stop at 7-11 for a slurpee, we should acknowledge that as legitimate criticism, right?

Clown logic.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

Young people voted for him like crazy in 2016, especially in the early primaries where he was still viewed as having a chance. Bernie got more young voters in the



Since you were wrong about Bernie Sanders failing to motivate young voters (at least until the Democratic party destroyed his chances), will that change your perceptions?

yes, and like i said, didn't they turn out in lower numbers the second run?

someone who took a demographic by storm with an out of no where campaign had four more years to motivate and inspire yet got fewer of them to come out? congrats on iowa, why didn't that carry forward? i guess cuz the moderate dems teamed up they decided the boomers win?

secondly, at this point in america, the make up of congress holds just as much or more weight than the WH (outside of the rare moment when a president gets three fukking SC picks), so we're gonna find multiple fantom candidates to get young voters involved with congressional races (primaries and midterms?)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/powerup/2020/03/05/powerup-young-voters-are-turning-out-in-lower-numbers-than-bernie-sanders-expected/5e6018d6602ff10d49ac2c83/

Biden's older voters are showing up. Sanders' young voters aren't

Super Tuesday was not so super for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. His struggles reflect an inability to connect with older voters compared to Joe Biden, while at the same time failing to generate large youth turnout.

www.cnn.com

How Huge Voter Turnout Eluded Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday (Published 2020)

“Have we been as successful as I would hope in bringing young people in?” he said a day after Joe Biden beat him in several key states. “The answer is no.”

www.nytimes.com

“Have we been as successful as I would hope in bringing young people in?” he said a day after Joe Biden beat him in several key states. “The answer is no.”

 

[Professor Emeritus]

yes, and like i said, didn't they turn out in lower numbers the second run?

I just showed you them turning out in RECORD numbers in Iowa in 2020. Not just higher than 2016, but in fact the highest EVER. And they turned out in enormous #'s in New Hampshire and Nevada too. Bernie motivated young voters to turn out far better than any centrists ever had, and you're just gonna handwave that away by comparing Bernie turnout to Bernie turnout? That's the weakest argument you could possibly come up with for claiming that Bernie doesn't turn out young voters. Why not compare to Clinton turnout or Biden turnout instead? Ah, we know why.....


And you're pulling off a bullshyt bait-and-switch by trying to cite 2020 numbers AFTER the Democrats had fukked Bernie over and he lost his chance for the nomination. Yes, of course youth turnout cratered once they lost hope. THAT'S THE WHOLE fukkING POINT. The youth stop voting when the Dems step in and chose their least-favorite candidate (Biden had been just 3-4% of the Iowa and NH youth vote and 9% in Nevada). So once it was clear that the establishment had stepped in and picked their candidate, Bernie was fukked, and the replacement was someone the youth couldn't stand, then why the hell wouldn't turnout drop precipitously?

The fact that you see shytty youth turnout for Biden as an argument in your favor is wild.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I just showed you them turning out in RECORD numbers in Iowa in 2020. Not just higher than 2016, but in fact the highest EVER. And they turned out in enormous #'s in New Hampshire and Nevada too. Bernie motivated young voters to turn out far better than any centrists ever had, and you're just gonna handwave that away by comparing Bernie turnout to Bernie turnout? That's the weakest argument you could possibly come up with for claiming that Bernie doesn't turn out young voters. Why not compare to Clinton turnout or Biden turnout instead? Ah, we know why.....


And you're pulling off a bullshyt bait-and-switch by trying to cite 2020 numbers AFTER the Democrats had fukked Bernie over and he lost his chance for the nomination. Yes, of course youth turnout cratered once they lost hope. THAT'S THE WHOLE fukkING POINT. The youth stop voting when the Dems step in and chose their least-favorite candidate (just 3-4% of the Iowa and NH youth vote and 9% in Nevada).

The fact that you see shytty youth turnout for Biden as an argument in your favor is wild.

I compared Bernie to Bernie as outside of Obama, he's been the best candidate at turning out a youth vote and even that's not enough nor is it one you can count on. Why wouldn't I use him as an example? I don't care where the politics lie, at the end of the day this phantom candidate who gets youth to the polls consistently is a pipe dream - progressive, centrist or conservative.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

I compared Bernie to Bernie as outside of Obama, he's been the best candidate at turning out a youth vote and even that's not enough nor is it one you can count on. Why wouldn't I use him as an example?

Because it's senseless to claim that Bernie couldn't get out the youth vote if the only superior example you can compare it to is Bernie himself.

I don't care where the politics lie, at the end of the day this phantom candidate who gets youth to the polls consistently is a pipe dream - progressive, centrist or conservative.

The youth were 24% of the electorate in the 2020 Iowa caucuses. That's fukking crazy, unprecedented, something not even Obama vs. Clinton could manage. It's something we've never seen even in a general election and general elections usually have better youth share than primaries. Iowa is an old-ass state and caucuses are for old-ass voters, yet the youth turned out great. And their turnout in 2020 New Hampshire, 2020 Nevada, and the first half of the 2016 primaries was FAR better than any regular Dem candidate ever pulls in the primaries. In the general election it almost certainly would have been even greater because Bernie was invigorating non-affiliated youth too in addition to registered dems and people engaged enough to participate in caucuses. You can't call it a "phantom candidate" when Bernie himself did it.

If youth were over 24% of the general electorate, the Dems would dominate the fukk out of every election. The youth share of the vote was just 16% in 2016 general and 17% in 2020 general. Even Obama's historic 2008 election managed just an 18% youth share in the general. Increase that to 24% (or greater, because general elections always bring higher youth shares than primaries) and Bernie wins every single purple state out there.

You called it a "pipe dream" because the youth stopped turning out AFTER the democratic establishment fukked Bernie over. That makes no sense as an argument. Proving that the youth only turned out while Bernie still had a chance and gave up after the centrists took that chance away is an argument for my position, not yours.

 

[the cac mamba]

When progressives criticize, it's whining, but when you're complaining all over this forum about having to put on a mask every time you stop at 7-11 for a slurpee, we should acknowledge that as legitimate criticism, right?

Clown logic.

progressives have nowhere else to go. swing voters do

 

[NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong]

i'm a centrist, but not a McCentrist.... i don't see how we can govern our country based on my values.... i can live my life based on my values, but we have to govern our country based on our values.... which means when it comes to governing this country, i have to compromise with others i disagree with in order to get concessions for things i do agree with....

compromise is not always the watered down middle between two ideas, sometimes it's giving up on one fight completely to win another fight... (i.e.: i would give up on the gun control fight and even advocate for expanding gun rights in order to win at implementing universal health care)

i don't see a complete progressive agenda winning the entire nation when tens of millions of people are vehemently opposed to progressivism.... it means we have to find areas of agreement and push for those.... now, that doesn't mean that our McPoliticians actually do this in good faith, but i still don't see how we can progress without any concessions of any kind.... that's just crazy....

Kinda surprised you identify as a centrist

Non-racist people aren’t opposed to progressive ideas. They are opposed to progressive politicians and something they are unaware of. And for white people - the idea that racial minorities may be getting some unearned benefit. The dumbest thing Sanders ever did was lean into the name democratic socialist.

Agreed. Totally torpedoed himself with that and at times I actually wondered if he wanted to win or just move the discussion left because of how much he leaned into it. I'm not sure attaching oneself to any ideological label is good business for a candidate but definitely not one that could be smeared such as anything with a socialist label

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

Because it's senseless to claim that Bernie couldn't get out the youth vote if the only superior example you can compare it to is Bernie himself.





The youth were 24% of the electorate in the 2020 Iowa caucuses. That's fukking crazy, unprecedented, something not even Obama vs. Clinton could manage. It's something we've never seen even in a general election and general elections usually have better youth share than primaries. Iowa is an old-ass state and caucuses are for old-ass voters, yet the youth turned out great. And their turnout in 2020 New Hampshire, 2020 Nevada, and the first half of the 2016 primaries was FAR better than any regular Dem candidate ever pulls in the primaries. In the general election it almost certainly would have been even greater because Bernie was invigorating non-affiliated youth too in addition to registered dems and people engaged enough to participate in caucuses. You can't call it a "phantom candidate" when Bernie himself did it.

If youth were over 24% of the general electorate, the Dems would dominate the fukk out of every election. The youth share of the vote was just 16% in 2016 general and 17% in 2020 general. Even Obama's historic 2008 election managed just an 18% youth share in the general. Increase that to 24% (or greater, because general elections always bring higher youth shares than primaries) and Bernie wins every single purple state out there.

You called it a "pipe dream" because the youth stopped turning out AFTER the democratic establishment fukked Bernie over. That makes no sense as an argument. Proving that the youth only turned out while Bernie still had a chance and gave up after the centrists took that chance away is an argument for my position, not yours.

@ counting on people who don't come to vote because now you just have one main competitor vs 6...uhhh, isn't that how general elections work?

the youth let bernie down, the man who has moved them the best to date, not sorry i don't see this as the demographic to count on when a candidate making policies for them specifically can't get them to be consistent. elizabeth warren didn't have a shot in hell by super tuesday yet i still went and voted for her, that's kinda how voting for your choice candidate is supposed to go, no matter how bleak.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Fewer than 600 out of about 3,000 counties, not including Alaska, voted over 80% for either candidate

http://[URL]https://www.usatoday.co...america-county-results-more-voters/6226197002

/[/URL]

Your cutoff for "purple" is anything less than 80% partisan?

Yo, this is the centrist argument at work, they believe that everything less than 80% Republican or 80% Democrat is their exclusive territory.


Now show how many counties are at least 60% for either candidate and we might be able to have a real discussion.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

@ counting on people who don't come to vote because now you just have one main competitor vs 6...uhhh, isn't that how general elections work?

I can't even tell what you're saying. The youth are usually MORE likely to vote in the general than they are in the primaries, the only exception was when Bernie was in the primary. Thus his unprecedented strength among youth when the primaries were competitive was likely to be multiplied even more if he had made it to the general. What part of that is tough to understand?

the youth let bernie down, the man who has moved them the best to date, not sorry i don't see this as the demographic to count on when a candidate making policies for them specifically can't get them to be consistent.

No, the youth carried Sanders to victories when he still had a chance. They became cynical and stopped coming after the establishment fukked him over. That's already been proven to you and you ignored it.

elizabeth warren didn't have a shot in hell by super tuesday yet i still went and voted for her, that's kinda how voting for your choice candidate is supposed to go, no matter how bleak.

Because you're a wealthy centrist who prioritizes the elite over the marginalized, America has continued to personally give you what you want in life so it's easy to hope in the system.

You have far less reason to be cynical about the power of the vote and performative virtue-signaling to the system than the non-voters you're criticizing.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

Your cutoff for "purple" is anything less than 80% partisan?

Yo, this is the centrist argument at work, they believe that everything less than 80% Republican or 80% Democrat is their exclusive territory.


Now show how many counties are at least 60% for either candidate and we might be able to have a real discussion.

huh? it means it's a district where red and blue have a shot, i don't subscribe to every purple county being centrist territory, it wholly depends on where the county is located, but given there are more suburban and rural counties than urban where progressives cluster, it makes sense you'll see more moderate dems. you're free to find a stat with a lower threshold, i aint bout to spend a hour googling shyt to come back and post a reply on thecoli, that's your bag, have at it

 

[Pressure]

Kinda wild to use the Iowa caucus as some type of definitive metric when Pete won it.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I can't even tell what you're saying. The youth are usually MORE likely to vote in the general than they are in the primaries, the only exception was when Bernie was in the primary. Thus his unprecedented strength among youth when the primaries were competitive was likely to be multiplied even more if he had made it to the general. What part of that is tough to understand?





No, the youth carried Sanders to victories when he still had a chance. They became cynical and stopped coming after the establishment fukked him over. That's already been proven to you and you ignored it.





Because you're a wealthy centrist who prioritizes the elite over the marginalized, America has continued to personally give you what you want in life so it's easy to hope in the system.

You have far less reason to be cynical about the power of the vote and performative virtue-signaling to the system than the non-voters you're criticizing.

the point is you're giving the youth a pass because people galvanized around one opponent, biden, that's how general's work as well...primary or general, you support your candidate against the opposition



this is so apropos for HL for anyone who doesn't label themselves a progressive or bernie supporter. track is on, have a good evening.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

this is so apropos for HL for anyone who doesn't label themselves a progressive or bernie supporter. track is on, have a good evening.

No, it's apropos for someone who:

* is literally posting here in defense of centrism
* has repeatedly posted in the past in defense of landlords over tenants (because you are one)
* has said in the past that you prioritize your own income bracket over poorer communities
* has said in the past that you prioritize elite students over lower-performing ones
* graduated from an expensive, elite university and earn at least in the $150,000-$200,000 range between income and investments.