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Superstar
He's an incumbent with an approval rating in the 30's - he's going to have to do a lot more than simply address the country a couple times from the oval. People are still forgetting that he was originally elected with roughly half the voting eligible public. If a quarter more people turn out, he won't win re-election.
You’re still forgetting the popular vote doesn’t win the presidency.
You wanna count on the non-college and old whites in the Midwest and Florida to do the right thing?
Bush Jr duped them into a war and they still reeelcted him.