China’s economy and population is on the rocks

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

You’re not wrong except they rely on the west to maintain their supply chain & they lack natural resources and as we saw in the last Cold War the lack of access to resources makes you vulnerable to proxy wars.

In my opinion China as always would prefer to be left the fukk alone to be tyrants of its own people.

China does not lack natural resources and this cold war won't lead to large scale economic warfare. Also trade partnerships are evolving. US is trying to find alternative manufacturing hubs and China has silk road initiative etc.

 

[levitate]

I can assist with the population issue.

 

[MAKAVELI25]

China does not lack natural resources and this cold war won't lead to large scale economic warfare. Also trade partnerships are evolving. US is trying to find alternative manufacturing hubs and China has silk road initiative etc.

I think you are being a big sanguine about the prospect of a cold war from China's perspective.

The US led export controls on advanced semiconductors are a huge deal as these are the tools that will facilitate developments in AI, which China, and to some extent, the US see as integral to their military and economic future.

There is a reason China is now imposing restrictions on rare earth minerals that other countries use as inputs in developing technology.

Also, the Belt and Road Initiative has not been an unequivocal success for China. They are facing backlash in African countries (see Zambia) and it is not insignificant that Italy is now talking about dropping out.

I agree with you that a Cold War could have a net benefit for the US, but I don't think that is necessarily true in China's case.

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

I think you are being a big sanguine about the prospect of a cold war from China's perspective.

The US led export controls on advanced semiconductors are a huge deal as these are the tools that will facilitate developments in AI, which China, and to some extent, the US see as integral to their military and economic future.

There is a reason China is now imposing restrictions on rare earth minerals that other countries use as inputs in developing technology.

Also, the Belt and Road Initiative has not been an unequivocal success for China. They are facing backlash in African countries (see Zambia) and it is not insignificant that Italy is now talking about dropping out.

I agree with you that a Cold War could have a net benefit for the US, but I don't think that is necessarily true in China's case.

The government won't care if on balance it's bad for the country as long as it helps them maintain POLITICAL control. That's what this is about.

 

[Piff Perkins]

You’re not wrong except they rely on the west to maintain their supply chain & they lack natural resources and as we saw in the last Cold War the lack of access to resources makes you vulnerable to proxy wars.

In my opinion China as always would prefer to be left the fukk alone to be tyrants of its own people.

If they preferred to only be tyrants of their own people they wouldn't be aggressively disputing islands, creating artificial islands to encroach on territory of other Asian nations, etc. The odd thing is that after the Belt And Road initiative's success they managed to drive multiple Asian nations back to the United States with their naval aggression.

I don't think they could have possibly anticipated covid would wreck them more than the US either; in a sense, the results were a complete failure for their world view and perception of American society. Xi isn't going anywhere but you can see some substantial cracks in their present and future. Working in finance I gotta say...it's not looking good for them.

 

[MAKAVELI25]

The government won't care if on balance it's bad for the country as long as it helps them maintain POLITICAL control. That's what this is about.

Yes, but even authoritarian governments are susceptible to protest, something that we saw an example of in China when the protests led to the end of Zero Cov-ID policies. Even the CCP has to maintain some level of goodwill with the populace.

 

[Hood Critic]

We're already in a cold war with China, not in the traditional arms (weapons) race, but in a technological race.

 

[Wargames]

China does not lack natural resources and this cold war won't lead to large scale economic warfare. Also trade partnerships are evolving. US is trying to find alternative manufacturing hubs and China has silk road initiative etc.

They do, it’s one of the reasons they are in Europe/Africa as heavy. Not to mention the lack of food in general. They have too many people and not enough farm land….. before Global Pollution makes it worse.

China is not cut out to be on their own as is and they may never be.

 

[Wargames]

We're already in a cold war with China, not in the traditional arms (weapons) race, but in a technological race.

This is a more realistic argument. Global economic dominance is what China wants.

 

[Hood Critic]

They do, it’s one of the reasons they are in Europe as heavy. Not to mention the lack of food in general. They have too many people and not enough farm land….. before Global Pollution makes it worse.

China is not cut out to be on their own as is and they may never be.

Yep - one of their biggest, if not the biggest, priorities right now is sustainment. At their scale, they'll need technological efficiency and innovation to achieve the super power status their chasing and then to be able to keep up with the world's super powers.

 

[Wargames]

If they preferred to only be tyrants of their own people they wouldn't be aggressively disputing islands, creating artificial islands to encroach on territory of other Asian nations, etc. The odd thing is that after the Belt And Road initiative's success they managed to drive multiple Asian nations back to the United States with their naval aggression.

I don't think they could have possibly anticipated covid would wreck them more than the US either; in a sense, the results were a complete failure for their world view and perception of American society. Xi isn't going anywhere but you can see some substantial cracks in their present and future. Working in finance I gotta say...it's not looking good for them.

China wants to operate through Soft power. It’s been said here by others, but they want economic hegemony over their neighbors and the world. However, Covid I think ended that even more than the saber rattling. At the end of the day the virus was created by them and the US created the vaccine. They would be doing better if they took the US vaccine but then they would lose face. So they are letting their people die.

Hell look at the issue with the super processors where they tried to do that Balloon nonsense, got embarrassed, and just led the US to speeding up its own development. They are becoming a power on the global stage but they are not there yet and they know it, and the US is finally taking them serious and they don’t know how to respond. They’ve been operating under the radar for decades.

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

They do, it’s one of the reasons they are in Europe/Africa as heavy. Not to mention the lack of food in general. They have too many people and not enough farm land….. before Global Pollution makes it worse.

China is not cut out to be on their own as is and they may never be.

The fact that a nation develops outside sources for goods/commodities doesn't by itself mean it is resource poor. The US is one of the highest producers of oil etc but we still import from middle east etc. Every country is "heavy" in Africa, that doesn't mean anything.

China has the vast majority of the world's rare earth mineral deposits, used primarily for high tech manufacturing (chips, lasers etc), had an endless supply of coal, oil/natural gas, rivers (hydro electric). Largest reserves of titanium, aluminum etc.

Definitely agree that they have an issue meeting internal demand, hence the need to find foreign sources of other goods. But again as long as they have the money that's not an existential danger.

 

[Wargames]

The fact that a nation develops outside sources for goods/commodities doesn't by itself mean it is resource poor. The US is one of the highest producers of oil etc but we still import from middle east etc. Every country is "heavy" in Africa, that doesn't mean anything.

China has the vast majority of the world's rare earth mineral deposits, used primarily for high tech manufacturing (chips, lasers etc), had an endless supply of coal, oil/natural gas, rivers (hydro electric). Largest reserves of titanium, aluminum etc.

Definitely agree that they have an issue meeting internal demand, hence the need to find foreign sources of other goods. But again as long as they have the money that's not an existential danger.

It becomes one if the US hits them with an embargo. Because end of the day if it comes down to Guns and Butter…. The us is kicking their ass on both sides. You’re right about the tech but cell phones demand doesn’t help them. Especially when as you said the US has energy and could use it if we had too though we rather pay someone else to poison their own water and deal with the toxic waste.

I do think China was economic power, but I still don’t think they are built to compete…. Not within this decade at least.

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

It becomes one if the US hits them with an embargo. Because end of the day if it comes down to Guns and Butter…. The us is kicking their ass on both sides. You’re right about the tech but cell phones demand doesn’t help them. Especially when as you said the US has energy and could use it if we had too though we rather pay someone else to poison their own water and deal with the toxic waste.

I do think China was economic power, but I still don’t think they are built to compete…. Not within this decade at least.

Embargo?

Breh this isn't 1890.

 

[Grand Conde]

how the fukk can their population be on the rocks? they have a billion fukking people, and half of that is poor farmers

Think serfs are a useful commodity in 2023 brehs.