If Liberals underperform tonight, does Trudeau go? Leadership challenge?
If they lose a substantial amount of seats and have razor thin minority there will be another election by December. I can see a leadership challenge before another election in that scenario.
If they get some amount of seats and/or add seats he will stay.
More important question is what happens with Conservatives and O’Toole. First time they’ve had a federal election platform w/ no commitment to cutting spending since Mulroney days. Also introduced some form of carbon pricing, that a lot of their membership in Alberta dislikes. If he gains seats in Ontario, it’ll be a vindication, but if he loses seats they’ll get trying to get him out ASAP. Would also mean they move further to the right again.
Other interesting to watch for is PPC performance. They’re polling higher than Green Party and not only from traditional Conservative voters. Polling suggests they’re getting support from peoples who don’t typically vote as well. IMO, it’s about COVID policy. Consensus among all parties on Covid restrictions, mandatory vaccinations etc are popular among majority but alienated a signifiant minority who have no one else airing their views.