I originally posted this on
/r/washingtonwizards. Would love to know what the larger NBA fan base on Reddit thinks. Thanks for reading!
Per Basketball-Reference, as of December 10 there are 247 players in the NBA who've recorded at least one three-point attempt per game this season. I looked up all of these players on NBA.com's player tracking basis to see how many contested -- when a defender was 2-4 feet away, labeled "tight" on the website -- threes each attempted. Here's what I found:
Contested Three-Point Shooting by Everyone Who's Averaging At Least 1 3pa/game (Warning: Huge. Sorry about the quality. Highlighted cells = that player is doing more in that category than Beal.)
Bradley Beal is 22nd in the NBA this season in three-point attempts per game (5.6).
Beal's 121st in contested three-point attempts per game (0.3).
(Sidebar: A contested three isn't a perfect shot.
But it's still a pretty good shot. It's been demonstrated that
the odds of making a three have far more to do with the shooter than the defender getting within a couple of yards of the shooter. And this is the NBA. Defenses aren't going to give you impeccable looks every time. A shooter must make do.)
He's 210th in percentage of three-point attempts that are contested (5.36). Overall, he's attempted just six (6!) contested threes this season.
Every player with more three-point attempts per game than Beal has attempted more contested threes per game than him. All have a higher percentage of three-point attempts contested than Beal.
Beal is 70th of these 247 players in three-point percentage (38.9%). Just twelve of the players with a higher three-point percentage -- Devin Booker, Brandon Rush, Shane Larkin, Glenn Robinson III, Andrew Nicholson, Jared Dudley, Omri Casspi, Ben McLemore, Thabo Sefolosha, TJ Warren, Frank Kaminsky, and Jeff Teague -- have a smaller percentage of their three-point attempts contested than Beal.
Of the thirty players who lead their teams in three-point attempts per game, only Nikola Mirotic, shooting 32.7% from deep, attempts fewer contested threes per game than Beal. Among this group, Beal is 9th in three-point percentage, 16th in three-point attempts per game, and 14th in contested three-point percentage.
Team Leading Three-Point Shooters
Beal leads the Washington Wizards in three-point attempts and makes per game but of the Wizards who're averaging at least one three-point attempt per game, only Jared Dudley and Kris Humphries have a smaller percentage contested than Beal. John Wall has attempted 0.7 contested three-pointers per game -- more than twice as many as Beal.
Wizards Shooters
Put it all together and it's clear: Bradley Beal is the most reluctant three-point shooter in the NBA today. And his reticence is not without cost.
According to NBA.com, before Beal missed three games with a shoulder injury, the Wizards had a 96.7 offensive rating with him on the court and 100.7 with him off. Their true shooting percentage (TS%) dropped slightly from 54.7 to 54.2 when he went to the bench but their turnover ratio (TOR) dropped from 19.7 to 16. According to NBAWowy, lineups with John Wall -- whose own struggles contributed to a poor Wizards offense in November -- were better without Beal, too: 1.062 points per possession (ppp), 57.2 TS%, 19.9 TOR with Beal on versus 1.086 ppp, 54.9 TS%, 16.7 TOR with Beal off.
The Wizards posted a 109.1 offensive rating in the three games Beal missed with a 55.7 TS% and 10.4 TOR. Per NBAWowy, lineups with Wall scored 1.098 ppp with a 54.2 TS% and 9.8 TOR.
It seems incredible that a player then averaging 22.7 points on 58.7 TS% and 2.7 assists, who's the best shooter on his team, could be hurting his team's offense but that seems to be the case.
Since Beal's return, the Wizards have had a 96.7 offensive rating with him on the court and 100.1 offensive rating with him on the bench, with their TS% rising from 51.6 to 54.4 and TOR dropping from 16.7 to 14.8 when Beal takes a seat. Per NBAWowy (last time, I promise), lineups with Wall and Beal both are scoring 0.993 ppp on 50 TS% with a 16.6 TOR. Lineups with Wall and without Beal are scoring 1.049 ppp with a 52.8 TS% and 13.4 TOR.
The best shooter on a team declining a three is like scratching a record. It throws an offense rhythm. Possessions following Beal declining a three usually don't result in another Beal three or a layup for a teammate. Instead they tend to beget jumpers by worse shooters, kamikaze runs by Ramon Sessions, or an attempt at an improvised bailout by John Wall. Far too often in the Wizards' case they result in turnovers as conceding the three-point line allows defenses to dig in, constricting the court and encroaching on the remaining avenues for shot creation.
Possibly the most exasperating thing about Beal's reluctance to fire from deep is that it doesn't extend to jump shots inside the arc. This season he's attempted 42 contested two-point shots more than ten feet away from the rim (2.5 per game), making 13 of them. In other words, he's attempted seven times as many contested two-point jump shots as he has contested threes while converting them less frequently (30.9% vs 33.3%).
In past years a lack of three-point shooting could be credited to coach Randy Wittman's traditionalist approach to offense. That isn't the case anymore. These Wizards are rolling out four-guard lineups and playing Otto Porter at center. The coach is moaning in post-game press conferences about how he never imagined he'd have to demand a guy shoot
more.
The Wizards are currently 22nd in offensive rating in the NBA. Much of that has to do with a slow start for John Wall and tepid performances by a lame-duck supporting cast. But a lot of it has to do with the Wizards' leading scorer, a player in a contract year, in an era of the game where firing away from deep is encouraged more than ever, who's reluctant to shoot. Agent Zero must be rolling over in his grave.
