Bouncing idea's 🏀: 2024 NBA Off-Season: Key Decisions and Developments
- Thread starter Morethan1
- Start date
Right but that’s not what he’s saying.
Wants to wait and see what the Kings do with the roster
The 2024 NBA Draft Class is the weakest in the decade plus I’ve studied since I began running some version of my stat-based draft prospect evaluation tool, Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA for short). Most seasons, there are 2-4 players who rate better than this year’s number one.
Overall depth is similarly lacking, according to YODA. I have 16 players with first round grades, and another 13 who are close. In a more normal draft class, those numbers are more like 22-25 and 18-20. Basically, this would be a fairly normal class if there were a few more top prospects, and several more in the late first or early second round range.
YODA focuses on overall production in actual games, as well as objective measures of size and athleticism, which are collected at the NBA Draft Combine. The system includes accounting for age, position/role, and quality of competition.
While this year’s class looks disappointing on the front end, valuable players can emerge even from weak drafts. History is replete with poorly regarded prospects (whatever method used to scout and evaluate them) who turn out great, as well as highly-regarded prospects who bust.
In other words, cast a skeptical eye on all pre-draft content, including mine. It’s all best guess — and that includes the teams charged with making the selections.
Below are the best guesses of my stat-based approach, as well as where the prospects rank in the Rookie Scale Consensus Mock Draft.
The YODA Big Board
- Alex Sarr, F/C, Perth (1) — Long and agile, Sarr reminds of Evan Mobley on the defensive end. The offense is still a work in progress, but he’s just 19 years old and has flashed some tantalizing skill. I think he’s likely to the best player from the 2024 draft.
- Reed Sheppard, G, Kentucky (4) — Sheppard’s on-court production defied his lack of size and wingspan. He shot 56% on twos, 52% on threes, and 83% from the free throw line. He’s second on Kentucky’s all-time single-season steals list behind Rajon Rondo — and ahead of John Wall. He blocked more shots last season than Wall did in his season at Kentucky. Does that mean he’ll be great in the NBA? Of course not. Sheppard being this high is a signal of the draft’s overall weakness. Still, at minimum, I think he’ll be a good NBA player.
- Stephon Castle, G, Connecticut (5) — Big, strong, defends, accepted coaching and a “lesser” role at Connecticut, which helped the team repeat as NCAA champions. Must improve his shooting.
- Donovan Clingan, C, Connecticut (3) — Clingan has a long future as an elite drop defender and rebounder in the NBA. His lack of agility will limit defensive versatility. He’ll need to develop (or reveal) a better offensive game.
- Devin Carter, G, Providence (11) — If I was an NBA GM, I’d want Carter on my team. He did just about everything reasonably well, including shoot the ball. He rebounded like a forward, assisted like a guard, and produced steals and blocks. Oh yeah, he also has good size and tested as the best athlete at the combine. And he defends.
- Zach Edey, C, Purdue (17) — I could make a case for Edey to rank even higher based on his on-court production. The two-time NCAA Player of the Year was a big-time scorer and rebounder, who also was an effective defender in college. His agility score at the combine suggests a good enough athlete to hold his own in the NBA. And he’s 7-4 in socks.
- Ron Holland, W, G League Ignite (13) — Talented youngster with obvious skills who had a bad season for a dysfunctional team that had no competent guards. Against G League competition, Holland rebounded, got steals and blocks, and at least tried on offense. The offensive results were poor — 24.0% on threes — but the overall package is still worth a high pick in this year’s draft.
- Nikola Topic, G, Red Star (12) — Skilled offensive creator with a knack for getting into the lane despite lacking elite physical tools. Excellent playmaker and good finisher at-rim. Concerns: he’s been a poor defender, and he reportedly has a partially torn ACL.
- Rob Dillingham, G, Kentucky (10) — Creative scorer and good shooter, who’s lack of size and strength raises questions about whether he can defend effectively enough to play big minutes in the NBA.
- DaRon Holmes II, F, Dayton (27) — I’m a bit puzzled about why consensus mocks have him so low. The 22-year-old scored efficiently, rebounded well, produced some assists, and generated steals and blocks without fouling. If he’s still available when the Washington Wizards pick at 26, they’d do well to take him.
- KJ Simpson, G, Colorado (45) — The last time I can remember a mismatch like this (YODA liking a prospect to this degree and consensus having him much lower) was Jalen Brunson. Not to say Simpson is the next Brunson, and he is small for an NBA guard, but he shot well, grabbed 6.6 rebounds per 40, and got just enough steals to be interesting.
- Dalton Knecht, W, Tennessee (7) — Already 23 years old, Knecht’s main (only?) selling point is his shooting, which is pretty good. He posted a strong agility score at the combine.
- Tyler Smith, F, G League Ignite (28) — Another talented youngster who had a rough season with a terrible Ignite squad. Smith shot well (36.0% on decent volume of threes) and grabbed some rebounds. He also fouled a lot. Still, interesting enough to be worth a late lottery pick.
- Jared McCain, G, Duke (15) — Great shooter who probably has more dimension to his game than he could show at Duke.
- N’Faly Dante, C, Oregon (65) — Long. Shot 69.5% on twos, rebounds well, averaged 2.2 steals and 2.4 blocks per 40 minutes. This kind of production usually signals a productive NBA rim runner.
- Jamal Shead, G, Houston (44) — Smaller, older (22), but freaky quick and tough. Averaged 8.1 assists per 40 and a 3/1 assists-to-turnover ratio. Shooting is a question mark.
That’s the end of the first round grades. Here’s group that’s close:
- Tyler Kolek, G, Marquette (25)
- Matas Buzelis, F, G League Ignite (6)
- Keshad Johnson, F, Arizona (51)
- Terrence Shannon Jr., W, Illinois (31)
- Ja’Kobe Walter, G, Baylor (14)
- Yves Missi, C, Baylor (22)
- Antonio Reeves, G, Kentucky (62) — SHOOTER!
- Kel’El Ware, C, Indiana (19)
- Zaccharie Risacher, W, Bourg (2) — Unimpressive production paired with unimpressive physical profile.
- Ariel Hukporti, C, Ludwigsburg (64)
- Tristen Newton, G, Connecticut (59)
- Harrison Ingram, W, North Carolina (39)
- Cam Spencer, W, Connecticut (57)
- Dillon Jones, W, Weber State (47)
- Jonathan Mogbo, F/C, San Francisco (41)
- Juan Nunez, G, Ulm (43)
- Bub Carrington, G, Pitt (18)
- Isaiah Collier, G, USC (21)
- Ryan Dunn, F, Virginia (26)
- PJ Hall, F/C, Clemson (56)
- Baylor Scheierman, W, Creighton (29)
- Johnny Furphy, W, Kansas (23)
- Pacome Dadiet, G, Ulm (33)
- Reece Beekman, G, Virginia (60)
- Cody Williams, W, Colorado (8)
- Tidjane Salaun, F, Cholet (9)
- Melvin Ajinca, W, Saint Quenton (49)
- Oso Ighodaro, F, Marquette (48)
- Tristan Da Silva, F, Colorado (16)
- Kevin McCullar, W, Kansas (34)
- Armando Bacot, C, North Carolina (91)
- Kyle Filipowski, C, Duke (24)
- Kyshawn George and Bobi Klintman are considered first round picks in the consensus mock, but neither ranks among YODA’s top 50 prospects.
- YODA has Bronny James ranked in the 50s.
In The Zone '98
Superstar
Bron touched a max contract since his forth year in the league 
Lefty Gunz
Superstar
The draft is tomorrow? 
That shyt has no buzz
That shyt has no buzz
It's funny they wanna get rid of Robinson cause he can't stay healthy only to give this guy $40M a year
threattonature
Veteran
I thought you was bullshytting. Wow I've heard nothing about it either. That's nuts. Makes sense considering there aren't any prospects with any hype.The draft is tomorrow?
Bigblackted4
Superstar
I was gone say there isn't really anything exciting, hell I took up some extra work because I was thinking only thing that will be exciting if any trades happen.
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