Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
GS wants to get long at cheaper prices:
Goldman Sachs has circulated a fascinating but scary research note to clients suggesting that the probability of stocks entering a bear market in the next 24 months currently stands at about 88%, based on the history of previous bear markets.
The note is titled "Bear Necessities. Should we worry now?" It is an exhaustive, 87-page dive through macroeconomic data and stock market activity going all the way back to the early 20th Century. It was written in September by London-based Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer, and European strategists Sharon Bell and Lilia Iehle Peytavin. Most of their data focus on the US S&P 500 index of stocks - the largest and most-followed of the share indices globally.
Here is the historic context. The S&P is currently the second largest and longest bull run in history.
Goldman Sachs
The index is also relatively expensive, the Goldman trio says. The aggregate valuation of the S&P 500 is now in its 88th percentile, as measured since 1976, according to Goldman's calculations. The median stock is in the 99th percentile.
The trio calculated a risk index based on the Shiller price-earnings ratio (the price of S&P 500 stocks divided by the average of 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation), the US ISM manufacturing index, unemployment (very low), the bond yield curve, and core inflation.
The resultant "GS Bear Market Indicator" is currently flashing at 67%. The indicator typically hits highs right before a bear market in US stocks appears:
Goldman Sachs has circulated a fascinating but scary research note to clients suggesting that the probability of stocks entering a bear market in the next 24 months currently stands at about 88%, based on the history of previous bear markets.
The note is titled "Bear Necessities. Should we worry now?" It is an exhaustive, 87-page dive through macroeconomic data and stock market activity going all the way back to the early 20th Century. It was written in September by London-based Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer, and European strategists Sharon Bell and Lilia Iehle Peytavin. Most of their data focus on the US S&P 500 index of stocks - the largest and most-followed of the share indices globally.
Here is the historic context. The S&P is currently the second largest and longest bull run in history.
The index is also relatively expensive, the Goldman trio says. The aggregate valuation of the S&P 500 is now in its 88th percentile, as measured since 1976, according to Goldman's calculations. The median stock is in the 99th percentile.
The trio calculated a risk index based on the Shiller price-earnings ratio (the price of S&P 500 stocks divided by the average of 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation), the US ISM manufacturing index, unemployment (very low), the bond yield curve, and core inflation.
The resultant "GS Bear Market Indicator" is currently flashing at 67%. The indicator typically hits highs right before a bear market in US stocks appears:
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
I saw a investment portfolio on my twitter feed, they are dealing with some amazing shyt....I was wondering how the hell do I buy in???
Are you asking how to buy stock in general or the stuff mentioned in their portfolio?
Picked up some SQ and PYPL today... I need to let some money chill instead of always being on the hunt
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
WSJ going hard at TSLA:
New revelations about Tesla Inc.’s production of the highly anticipated Model 3 sedan should shock, but not surprise, investors.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Tesla has recently been building major portions of the Model 3 by hand. This comes less than a week after Tesla announced it fell short of its third-quarter production guidance of 1,500 cars by more than 80%.
At the time, Tesla attributed the shortfall to “production bottlenecks.” On Friday, Tesla said it would postpone its launch event for a new truck to November to deal with Model 3 issues and to help provide assistance to Puerto Rico.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk is known as a risk-taker, which has endeared him to Wall Street analysts and investors alike. There is a fine line, however, between setting aggressive goals and misleading shareholders.
Tesla is inching closer to that line. Tesla was making three Model 3s on an average day in the third quarter.Mr. Musk should have known in August, when production guidance was reiterated, that the company wasn’t going to produce 1,500 Model 3s by the end of September.
There are other examples. At the Model 3 launch event in July, he told reporters that Tesla had received more than 500,000 customer deposits for the car. Five days later, after a series of questions from The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Musk revised that number to 455,000 on a conference call with investors. The earlier, higher figure he quoted had been “just a guess.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-tru...sla-1507399374
FREMONT, Calif.— Tesla Inc. TSLA -1.06% blamed “production bottlenecks” for having made only a fraction of the promised 1,500 Model 3s, the $35,000 sedan designed to propel the luxury electric-car maker into the mainstream.
Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.
While the car’s production began in early July, the advanced assembly line Tesla has boasted of building still wasn’t fully ready as of a few weeks ago, the people said. Tesla’s factory workers had been piecing together parts of the cars in a special area while the company feverishly worked to finish the machinery designed to produce Model 3’s at a rate of thousands a week, the people said.
Automotive experts say it is unusual to be building large parts of a car by hand during production. “That’s not how mass production vehicles are made,” said Dennis Virag, a manufacturing consultant who has worked in the automotive industry for 40 years. “That’s horse-and-carriage type manufacturing. That’s not today’s automotive world.”
New revelations about Tesla Inc.’s production of the highly anticipated Model 3 sedan should shock, but not surprise, investors.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Tesla has recently been building major portions of the Model 3 by hand. This comes less than a week after Tesla announced it fell short of its third-quarter production guidance of 1,500 cars by more than 80%.
At the time, Tesla attributed the shortfall to “production bottlenecks.” On Friday, Tesla said it would postpone its launch event for a new truck to November to deal with Model 3 issues and to help provide assistance to Puerto Rico.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk is known as a risk-taker, which has endeared him to Wall Street analysts and investors alike. There is a fine line, however, between setting aggressive goals and misleading shareholders.
Tesla is inching closer to that line. Tesla was making three Model 3s on an average day in the third quarter.Mr. Musk should have known in August, when production guidance was reiterated, that the company wasn’t going to produce 1,500 Model 3s by the end of September.
There are other examples. At the Model 3 launch event in July, he told reporters that Tesla had received more than 500,000 customer deposits for the car. Five days later, after a series of questions from The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Musk revised that number to 455,000 on a conference call with investors. The earlier, higher figure he quoted had been “just a guess.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-tru...sla-1507399374
FREMONT, Calif.— Tesla Inc. TSLA -1.06% blamed “production bottlenecks” for having made only a fraction of the promised 1,500 Model 3s, the $35,000 sedan designed to propel the luxury electric-car maker into the mainstream.
Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.
While the car’s production began in early July, the advanced assembly line Tesla has boasted of building still wasn’t fully ready as of a few weeks ago, the people said. Tesla’s factory workers had been piecing together parts of the cars in a special area while the company feverishly worked to finish the machinery designed to produce Model 3’s at a rate of thousands a week, the people said.
Automotive experts say it is unusual to be building large parts of a car by hand during production. “That’s not how mass production vehicles are made,” said Dennis Virag, a manufacturing consultant who has worked in the automotive industry for 40 years. “That’s horse-and-carriage type manufacturing. That’s not today’s automotive world.”
Yo any of you guys fukking with Motley Fool? Are they worth the subscription? I finally paid off my car. Debt free and gainfully employed for the first time ever really. Want to start investing beyond my retirement account and I've heard Fool isn't a bad place to start.
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
I dont hate them but i wouldnt buy a subscription.
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
You want to see a piece of shyt look at EGRX. Third of the float sold short.
Edit: actually a profitable company
Still, have a history of failing FDA trials and Eli Lilly is suing them for patent infringement. Explains the shorts.
Edit: actually a profitable company
Still, have a history of failing FDA trials and Eli Lilly is suing them for patent infringement. Explains the shorts.
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Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
Qudian IPO today. Fast growing chinese "fin-tech." Priced above expectations.
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Wanna take your advice but gotta know which military branch you're in first bruh
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
Wanna take your advice but gotta know which military branch you're in first bruh
Im not it's Nick Nolte 's character in The Thin Red Line.
Doesnt motley fool have a lot of articles for free?
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
Ticker?
EDIT: QD, but I'm not getting any quotes from google or ally
Should be trading now
Yup, dipped hard from the open of 35, sitting around 30 now. Gonna see how the next day or two plays out, but will be looking to take a position