Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

Macallik86

Superstar
Supporter
Joined
Dec 4, 2016
Messages
6,468
Reputation
1,377
Daps
21,130
if you don’t mind, can you elaborate?
My guess is that he is referring to the fact that in 2020, the markets recovered from their lows within 5 months. Thanks to recency bias, everyone has been buying dips with the expectation that the pullback will happen any moment now.

No one knows how long it will take to recover its losses, but the Feds can put their foot on the scales to nudge the markets in a preferred direction. What they've been saying through their actions is that they will be OK sacrificing a portion of historically great unemployment #s if it means that inflation will dip. They are making it more costly to borrow money, which leads to people spending less, and some jobs doing cuts or slowing down hiring as a result. This will slow down the rate of inflation but also the economy.

It's a balancing act because if they overdo it, then it could leading to a downturn that continues even after inflation subsides. Also, it's a catch-22 as black people, because inflation tends to hurt the financially insecure the hardest (read: disproportionately African-American) but at the same time, when jobs cool off on hiring and/or make job cuts, usually the first to go are low-skilled workers (read: disproportionately African-American). Whatever the Feds do will have a negative impact to one degree or another and so they have to try and pick the lesser of two evils.

As an example, the Feds were criticized for their actions (or lack thereof) during The Great Recession. In that instance, if you invested $100 in the S&P 500 in late 2007, it would've take 7.5 years for you to get out at breakeven (before accounting for inflation). That is why some people are saying don't be so quick to buy the dip and others are saying that as long as you keep DCAing and have a few decades before you are set to retire, you will do just fine in the long run.

I recommend this podcast as a daily snapshot of the economy as a whole as well as random local businesses. I've been interested in finance for +10 years but only truly wrapped my head around some of the more ideas thanks to this podcast:
 

WTFisWallace?

All Star
Joined
May 24, 2022
Messages
1,177
Reputation
196
Daps
3,679
Reppin
Dade County
keep in mind we could bounce 1000 points and still be in a bear trend.

cmon-mane.gif
 

247Alex

Pro
Joined
Mar 11, 2022
Messages
731
Reputation
56
Daps
962
Vertex has been so strong this year. Regret not starting a position end of last year
 
Top