Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

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No. Unrealized gains and losses are “real world money”. That’s why accounting rules require companies to mark-to-market the assets on their balance sheet.

you do not have to mark your crypto holdings to market as mark-to-market is related to commercial accounting itself and in particular risk management.

crypto is relatively illiquid non-cash.

you ignored the word "inflow". how much of the original principal is lost. 0 - 100% aside from certain margin purchases. and certainly not 100's of times as much (i.e. 100m -> 4bn).

you pay 100m "cash" in. if crypto falls 100% you don't owe 4bn right? the damage done to your finances overall from start to finish net is 100m right?

mark-to-market accounting is related to risk and transparency because companies tend to leverage their unrealised gains in other financial activity.

And margin calls are based on the value of holdings falling below a certain amount, not inflows.

margin calls are triggered at an amount calculated based on

i. the ratio of the sum of your inflows (i.e. your collateral) to the market value of your (leveraged) crypto holdings
ii. mitigated by your individual/company risk profile.

you can change that "certain amount" by increasing inflows i.e. paying in more collateral i.e. increasing your collateral.

the margin call itself is a request for an additional inflow.

so YES margin calls are based on "inflows" aka "all your inflows" aka "the sum of your inflows" aka "your total collateral".

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to avoid taking an extensive safari of finance and to stick to the point i want to return to my question 3 from above.

my point was that crypto market cap will cause less damage than the equivalent stock or bond market cap % reduction from the same point on the way down overall. and would do less damage than an equivalently sized (but mature) bond/stock market.

margin calls, leverage etc play less of a role in crypto because crypto is a small less mature market and the re-leveraging of unrealised gains is more common in bond and stock markets. which means that the damage done in crypto by margin calls, leverage etc are even smaller relative to bond and stock markets.

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to explain with a concrete example we jall ust saw (and have seen a few times) crypto lose more than half of its value.

in fact BTC lost 82% of it's value and dragged the entire market down with it in 2017 - 2018.

what massive effect did that have on main street i.e. the real productive economy? hardly any.

yes derivatives in crypto are more developed now but is nothing like the size or breadth or the leverage of the bond/stock markets.

if the stock market or bond prices FELL 50-60% the real productive economy would be in serious trouble.

to compound everything the crypto (relatively volatile hot air / smaller inflows inflated) market is GLOBAL. the USA is only about 60% of the less than 1tn that we are talking about.

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TL;DR the dangers of a crypto crash are overblown. as the price is more easily inflated, the tokens less liquid and a secondary and/or derivative market is still developing the knock-on effects of such a crash will be less pronounced than with the "equivalent" crash in bond or stock markets. crypto is relatively illiquid and is not easily spent in the economy and nor is it in practice easily fungible with other asset classes. as such the damage to participant inflows would be smaller than in bond/stock and so the knock-on effects in the real-world "productive economy" would be less due to a relatively smaller loss of capital inflows overall.
 

lib123

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you do not have to mark your crypto holdings to market as mark-to-market is related to commercial accounting itself and in particular risk management.

crypto is relatively illiquid non-cash.

you ignored the word "inflow". how much of the original principal is lost. 0 - 100% aside from certain margin purchases. and certainly not 100's of times as much (i.e. 100m -> 4bn).

you pay 100m "cash" in. if crypto falls 100% you don't owe 4bn right? the damage done to your finances overall from start to finish net is 100m right?

mark-to-market accounting is related to risk and transparency because companies tend to leverage their unrealised gains in other financial activity.



margin calls are triggered at an amount calculated based on

i. the ratio of the sum of your inflows (i.e. your collateral) to the market value of your (leveraged) crypto holdings
ii. mitigated by your individual/company risk profile.

you can change that "certain amount" by increasing inflows i.e. paying in more collateral i.e. increasing your collateral.

the margin call itself is a request for an additional inflow.

so YES margin calls are based on "inflows" aka "all your inflows" aka "the sum of your inflows" aka "your total collateral".

-

to avoid taking an extensive safari of finance and to stick to the point i want to return to my question 3 from above.

my point was that crypto market cap will cause less damage than the equivalent stock or bond market cap % reduction from the same point on the way down overall. and would do less damage than an equivalently sized (but mature) bond/stock market.

margin calls, leverage etc play less of a role in crypto because crypto is a small less mature market and the re-leveraging of unrealised gains is more common in bond and stock markets. which means that the damage done in crypto by margin calls, leverage etc are even smaller relative to bond and stock markets.

-

to explain with a concrete example we jall ust saw (and have seen a few times) crypto lose more than half of its value.

in fact BTC lost 82% of it's value and dragged the entire market down with it in 2017 - 2018.

what massive effect did that have on main street i.e. the real productive economy? hardly any.

yes derivatives in crypto are more developed now but is nothing like the size or breadth or the leverage of the bond/stock markets.

if the stock market or bond prices FELL 50-60% the real productive economy would be in serious trouble.

to compound everything the crypto (relatively volatile hot air / smaller inflows inflated) market is GLOBAL. the USA is only about 60% of the less than 1tn that we are talking about.

-

TL;DR the dangers of a crypto crash are overblown. as the price is more easily inflated, the tokens less liquid and a secondary and/or derivative market is still developing the knock-on effects of such a crash will be less pronounced than with the "equivalent" crash in bond or stock markets. crypto is relatively illiquid and is not easily spent in the economy and nor is it in practice easily fungible with other asset classes. as such the damage to participant inflows would be smaller than in bond/stock and so the knock-on effects in the real-world "productive economy" would be less due to a relatively smaller loss of capital inflows overall.
We have no idea how much leverage is tied to crypto, whether it be individuals taking out loans to invest or more sophisticated investors holding derivatives tied to crypto. And margin calls aren’t necessarily triggered by inflows. It’s triggered by the value of crypto falling by a certain amount relative to collateral. If none of the buyers are willing to bid more than $5K for Bitcoin, there could be $1M in total inflows but the market value would be marked down to $5K. In ‘08 many MBS became bid-less, meaning no one was willing to buy certain risky securities. The lack of inflows didn’t mean that margin calls couldn’t be triggered. Margin calls were still triggered because the underlying securities dropped below a certain market value. A sudden drop in crypto would force many people to sell their stocks to cover margin calls.

And yes, brokerages mark crypto to market value. That’s how margin calls get triggered. Crypto is much bigger than 2017-18, especially the derivatives market tied to crypto. That increase in leverage and the uncertainty surrounding the total leverage make it impossible for you to say with certainty that the risks are overblown. If anything, past financial crisis have shown that the risks are usually underestimated.
 

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We have no idea how much leverage is tied to crypto, whether it be individuals taking out loans to invest or more sophisticated investors holding derivatives tied to crypto.

we know it is less than in the stock and bond markets.

And margin calls aren’t necessarily triggered by inflows

I didn't say triggered by inflows. re-read what I said. it's not complicated.

you still do not understand. i did not say that margin calls were trigged by inlfows. it is not complicated.

have you read Hull? this book?

51lRK2ZEFkL._SX218_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_ML2_.jpg


. It’s triggered by the value of crypto falling by a certain amount relative to collateral. If none of the buyers are willing to bid more than $5K for Bitcoin, there could be $1M in total inflows but the market value would be marked down to $5K.

you still do not understand. i did not say that margin calls were trigged by inlfows. it is not complicated.

In ‘08 many MBS became bid-less, meaning no one was willing to buy certain risky securities. The lack of inflows didn’t mean that margin calls couldn’t be triggered. Margin calls were still triggered because the underlying securities dropped below a certain market value.

what?? you still do not understand. i did not say that margin calls were trigged by inlfows. it is not complicated.

A sudden drop in crypto would force many people to sell their stocks to cover margin calls.

the gearing is less in crypto than in bonds and stocks so unwinding in stocks/bonds is more dangerous. across the board.

And yes, brokerages mark crypto to market value.

not just brokers. OTC's are marked to market. i sense a stock market and a practiioners bias in what you say.

That’s how margin calls get triggered. Crypto is much bigger than 2017-18, especially the derivatives market tied to crypto. That increase in leverage and the uncertainty surrounding the total leverage make it impossible for you to say with certainty that the risks are overblown.

they are overblown (on here) relative to the same situation in bonds/stocks.

i am not going to dig them out (but i might) but most financial companies. investment banks, commercial banks, central banks in whose accounts the bulk of world capital sits (in one form or another) have little to no crypto exposure at all. the derivatives market is hundreds of trillions and the crypto market is a few trillion if that. i read estimates 2.7. financial engineering means that bond issues in country X could be leveraged and repackaged 10's of times and end up being part of the securities backing your mortgage.

crypto is not convertible in the same manner and as a result is not intertwined to the real economy in the same way. there is little to no crypto financial engineering and little to no exotic secondary market for cryptos so the bulk of its effect is in primary investment activities rather than non-investment activities.


when BMW are funding a new factory they don't go to the crypto markets.

when the QE discount window is opened crypto is not being bought.

crypto hasd no widespread use in mezzanine securities (unlike bonds/stocks)

elon is not buying twitter with crypto.


etc ..

you know how fractional reserve banking expands the money supply. as bonds/stocks are standardised liquid and mature they experience the same "extreme multiplier effect" within secondary markets. that just does not happen with crypto.

If anything, past financial crisis have shown that the risks are usually underestimated.

1. crypto just dropped 50-60% i.e. >1tn. where is the suffering?
2.
you didn't comment on capital destruction.

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a relative argument requires that you compare the ratio of one abstract to another abstract. pointing to a attribute in one abstract without considering the effect of that attribute in the other abstract is not understanding a relativistic comparison.
 

lib123

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we know it is less than in the stock and bond markets.



I didn't say triggered by inflows. re-read what I said. it's not complicated.

you still do not understand. i did not say that margin calls were trigged by inlfows. it is not complicated.

have you read Hull? this book?

51lRK2ZEFkL._SX218_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_ML2_.jpg




you still do not understand. i did not say that margin calls were trigged by inlfows. it is not complicated.



what?? you still do not understand. i did not say that margin calls were trigged by inlfows. it is not complicated.



the gearing is less in crypto than in bonds and stocks so unwinding in stocks/bonds is more dangerous. across the board.



not just brokers. OTC's are marked to market. i sense a stock market and a practiioners bias in what you say.



they are overblown (on here) relative to the same situation in bonds/stocks.

i am not going to dig them out (but i might) but most financial companies. investment banks, commercial banks, central banks in whose accounts the bulk of world capital sits (in one form or another) have little to no crypto exposure at all. the derivatives market is hundreds of trillions and the crypto market is a few trillion if that. i read estimates 2.7. financial engineering means that bond issues in country X could be leveraged and repackaged 10's of times and end up being part of the securities backing your mortgage.

crypto is not convertible in the same manner and as a result is not intertwined to the real economy in the same way. there is little to no crypto financial engineering and little to no exotic secondary market for cryptos so the bulk of its effect is in primary investment activities rather than non-investment activities.


when BMW are funding a new factory they don't go to the crypto markets.

when the QE discount window is opened crypto is not being bought.

crypto hasd no widespread use in mezzanine securities (unlike bonds/stocks)

elon is not buying twitter with crypto.


etc ..

you know how fractional reserve banking expands the money supply. as bonds/stocks are standardised liquid and mature they experience the same "extreme multiplier effect" within secondary markets. that just does not happen with crypto.



1. crypto just dropped 50-60% i.e. >1tn. where is the suffering?
2.
you didn't comment on capital destruction.

-

a relative argument requires that you compare the ratio of one abstract to another abstract. pointing to a attribute in one abstract without considering the effect of that attribute in the other abstract is not understanding a relativistic comparison.

You said margin calls are based on inflows and constantly mention inflows. Re-read what you said yourself. That doesn't mean the contagion sparked by a sudden drop in crypto couldn't spark a financial crisis. And crypto has dropped 50-60%, but that has been over several months. I'm talking about the velocity of a sudden drop in a short period of time. If you don't think an 80-90% drop in a trillion dollar asset within a week wouldn't spark contagion, perhaps you need to read about Long-Term Capital Management and some of Nassim Taleb's work.

And yes, crypto is less than the stock market and bond market. And derivatives tied to crypto are much less. But crypto is much more likely to decline exponentially in a short period of time than those assets hence triggering contagion risk. Anyways, this is my last post on this. The conversation is becoming circular.
 

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You said margin calls are based on inflows and constantly mention inflows.

No I didn't. Have you ever studied degree level finance/maths/economics?

Re-read what you said yourself. That doesn't mean the contagion sparked by a sudden drop in crypto couldn't spark a financial crisis. And crypto has dropped 50-60%, but that has been over several months. I'm talking about the velocity of a sudden drop in a short period of time.

The current drop is a "crash". I said the "effects of a crash are overblown". We are talking about a future "crash".

Now you come with irrelevant cop out babble of "well overnight crash".

You said my comments about a "crash" are wrong so no post-hoc babble please without acknowledging your mistake.

If you don't think an 80-90% drop in a trillion dollar asset within a week wouldn't spark contagion, perhaps you need to read about Long-Term Capital Management and some of Nassim Taleb's work.

Taleb is a one-trick pony hack with his black-swan "that everyone knows about anyway" babble. He says nothing insightful.

And yes, crypto is less than the stock market and bond market. And derivatives tied to crypto are much less. But crypto is much more likely to decline exponentially in a short period of time than those assets hence triggering contagion risk. Anyways, this is my last post on this. The conversation is becoming circular.

You didn't say whether you read this book? I would like to know if you have read the fundamentals? Do you understand/work in capital markets?

Serious question as I would like to know if I can chalk this up to a misunderstanding.

51lRK2ZEFkL._SX218_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_ML2_.jpg
 
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