Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

Macallik86

Macallik86

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brehsimilitude said:
1. which "markets" ran up? the stock market is way down the list of important markets.
The main market that they refer to and that is typically the measuring stick of the US Markets... aka S&P500
2. the fact that "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" doesn't mean that they were wrong
Their advice/timelines/positions post-global recession was flat out incorrect. We are now looking at a new fiscal situation in response to the pandemic that may play out how they anticipate, but let's not act like they were right about quantitative easing re:Obama. Also, until the doom and gloom that they've been harping on for a decade actually plays out, we are still just in a pullback after a +10 year bull run
3. "right once every 12 years"? seriously?
In terms of the big calls or overarching narrative, yes.
4. governments disposed of market orthodoxy and rewrote laws to maintain the status quo. this does not invalidate older assessments of market conditions it just kicks the can down the road. examples: zirp, state support of private banks, QE, MMT .. c'mon now.
State support to limit contagion/a widespread bank collapse, Quantitative Easing to provide a more stable economy that lead to greater investments, fiscal stimulus to
it's 12 years "in the making" because the rule books were torn up wuth everything possible done to maintain the distorted economic status quo.
I think that's the main issue. This idea that there is a 'rulebook. The idea that prior economic decisions have the same weight as something our forefathers passed onto us (which I also technically disagree with). Economics are combination of a science and an art. Similar to religion, there are plenty of things that we disregard over time or put a modern reinterpretation on.
the lesson from 2008 is that top-dogs make the rules and can change them at will.
I'd prefer a more agile, nimble government than an antiquated one confined by the rules that racist white people in the 1800s posited.
borrowing more and juggling credit-cards to stave off insolvency doesn't change the fundamentals of your position.
You talk of credit card debt and staving off insolvency while the new-era post pandemic approach led to a savings rate at an all-time high


maybe a course or two would have helped.

"the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
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I'm not going back and forth with you for five days. I have responded twice to your points with my personal opinion and will leave it at that in case you need to have the last word to feel like your defense of a biased libertarian quasi-financial think-tank is justified.
 
Serious

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humminbird said:
do you think the Monday drop was the reaction though. I almost have a feeling if they actually do it the market will rally for like an hour because they expected it.
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I think there a strong possibility the market rallies as well because people expect it to be red. Can’t tell I’m not a financial advisor :hubie:


The only other date I’m watching for is in July.
 
L

lib123

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Serious said:
I think there a strong possibility the market rallies as well because people expect it to be red. Can’t tell I’m not a financial advisor :hubie:


The only other date I’m watching for is in July.
Click to expand...

We’ll see but I don’t think a lot of people have accepted how serious inflation is.
 
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