Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

blotter

All Star
Supporter
Joined
Jul 13, 2015
Messages
2,035
Reputation
870
Daps
11,290
Ok so I didn't look at it lately but what the hell happened to KMPH ? Price is at pre-FDA approval announcement as it got wrecked last Friday ? I tried to look for a reason for that drop the last 20 minutes but only bad news I have read about it is that revised their forecast for the better :dwillhuh:
gave up 28mm in approval milestones this month for potential for more down the line, money is now going towards helping Corium launch the adhd drug.. so that's almost a buck per share and makes sense to go down some being 8 months from when they can show sales revenue with Q3 earnings. Then you had some who had got in to flip the news of the milestone payment who dipped out. Then shorts were all over it that day because it obviously was going down.

The rub comes down to why you think this amended deal happened. People who were bullish about the drug generally still are from what I've seen online, still a good drug, better long term milestones and royalties, and a fully funded launch = win to them. Some are upset at the short term price action for sure, but not many are doubting the actual drug or label. The bearish people I've seen chatting about it online I'm assuming aren't posting in good faith because when I check out their posting history they didn't have much interest before this..they claim this happened because the drug isn't as good as hoped, there was a disagreement about the label and payments owed, this was a move to save face, they wouldn't pay kmph more if it was going to be a blockbuster, etc etc just generally spreading uncertainty

The only thing you can potentially speculate on the label as not being at or exceeding expectations of what they would have originally agreed to and wanted out of the drug is 30/13 onset and duration times.. I'm biased but the bear case doesn't add up to me. And I believe there can be win wins in business when you're calling someone your partner.. and I'm not sure a buyout isn't coming after they eventually see how the market receives the drug. KMPH was negotiating from a much different place drowning in debt pre approval to post approval flush with cash. But to be fairo the CEO said they intended to invoice them for the full approval milestones. So there is generally speculation to the why and obviously markets don't like uncertainty.

I wish I had more conviction and was adding, but I can't lie a tiny bit of doubt has crept in because ultimately we're working off limited information. It's my third largest holding and still green, but probably better just going to forget about it for a year+... that was always my plan with it. still bullish until I see a legit argument how the drug fell short
 

Serious

Veteran
Supporter
Joined
Apr 30, 2012
Messages
80,476
Reputation
14,449
Daps
191,639
Reppin
1st Round Playoff Exits
EynBg_oXIAcjzar
 
Top