Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

yea, the point more or less is, if the market falls, most stocks are gonna fall, so stick with TSLA - if TSLA bursts, cut your losses and move on. no point in bringing up whole market downturns for not investing in TSLA, if you have a bear case for TSLA itself, fine, don't invest. but like MSFT vs AAPL - MSFT got dragged down while AAPL was on its run of revolutionizing consumer tech with iMacs, iPods and then the iPhone. The world is moving to EVs market crash or not, why wouldn't TSLA be the AAPL is this case?

I'm in agreement with you, I assume this is directed towards the perma bears and worrisome Willie's on here ? Lol.

A correction shouldn't concern anyone especially people our age.

And if you believe in your positions like TSLA or SQ or whatever.. don't stress. Weak hands are bad if there's a correction they are the first to sell out.

 

[Insensitive]

If in 1997 if you bought Amazon you would have rode it up to from what amounts to a $4-$5 penny stock up to to the $110 range in 1999. At that point you 28x your money. From then then you would have had to ride it all the way back down to effectively being a penny stock again and you wouldn't get back to those 1999 levels until almost 2009. A lot of people wouldn't take that trip without bailing. It's easy to talk about believing in a company and them being the future. It's hard to ride with a stock a decade after being on 28x highs. You know what? If you did and still have them you 800x your money.

Microsoft was a $60 in 1999. It corrected and took till almost 2016 to get back.

This stuff doesn't always play our so sweet. It can get really ugly.

I think that's why it's important to stress that this is INVESTING we're doing not SPECULATING.
I think there are people looking at stock investing akin to gambling and they're thinking
"week to week" or even "Month to month" not over multiple years.

I think this is what separates the buffets from the joe schmo who thinks "stocls are a get rich quick scheme!!!".
A lot of dudes aren't thinking long term enough and I can totally get the allure of doubling/tripling/quadrupling
your money but we also need to have some reservation about their types of moves because it can quickly result
in someone spending themselves broke and taking back to back losses.

 

[Deafheaven]

Hypothetically If I deposited money on the 7th to buy a stock and used those funds and then sold said stocks on the 8th Im not in some type of violation right

I know it takes a couple eays for etf from ur bank to settle but they let you cop stocks immediately. Sorry if this is a dumb ass question but I cain find a solid answer on google

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I'm in agreement with you, I assume this is directed towards the perma bears and worrisome Willie's on here ? Lol.

A correction shouldn't concern anyone especially people our age.

And if you believe in your positions like TSLA or SQ or whatever.. don't stress. Weak hands are bad if there's a correction they are the first to sell out.

Yea, more so to @winb83 trying to be all bearish over new TSLA investors

 

[Serious]

Wtf did I just watch, a ride share company named alto

@*DalMem*

 

[winb83]

I think that's why it's important to stress that this is INVESTING we're doing not SPECULATING.
I think there are people looking at stock investing akin to gambling and they're thinking
"week to week" or even "Month to month" not over multiple years.

I think this is what separates the buffets from the joe schmo who thinks "stocls are a get rich quick scheme!!!".
A lot of dudes aren't thinking long term enough and I can totally get the allure of doubling/tripling/quadrupling
your money but we also need to have some reservation about their types of moves because it can quickly result
in someone spending themselves broke and taking back to back losses.

$28 billion in revenue TTM
$834 billion in market cap
A price / sales ratio should be under 2 and ideally 1. Tesla is 29.

If we froze Tesla's market cap where it is right now and assumed they could double their revenue every couple years it would take them 10 years to grow into their current valuation. If we go back and look from 17-18 they doubled their revenue. From 18-19 they went from $21 billion to $24 billion and their trailing 12 months is $28 billion. Let's give them $31 billion and assume in Q4 2020 they did $10 billion in revenue. We'll say revenue grew 31% YOY.

31% revenue growth means they're 13 years away from reaching this valuation. The truth is as your revenue grows it gets harder to continue growing it. Amazon grew their revenue 21% or so from 18-19 and the TTM is under 21% now. Amazon is a beast and has revenue in the range of 10x of Tesla's in 2019. Amazon isn't growing at 31% YOY revenue growth.

What I really need to look into is how did Cathie Wood's numbers account for such an irrational drastic overvaluation of Tesla. She effectively predicted the stock market's irrationality over this.

 

[chief_keef_stan]

I might have FOMO'd into RIOT but I feel the risk is worth it..

Outside of SQ I had no bitcoin exposure. Now I have a direct link.

I don't know enough about Bitcoin but I know how to read charts so while RIOT is a riskier play than I typically like.. it will continue to diversify my portfolio..

I can have a RIOT and say NIO and some risky plays because I'm well diversified.

ive been in riot and mara for a few months the returns been crazy more than if i invested in btc

the bitcoin miners hardware companies themselves seems like a very interesting play... basically theres a big backlog and major rush for all these companies to acquire mining equipment(efficient ones)

a vid I saw described it as the gold rush back then.. the ppl who made the real money werent the ppl mining for the gold(BTC) but the ppl selling the equipment and shyt like and pickaxe and shovel (mining companies and manufacturer ) .

these mining equipment folk can prob charge crazy prices on the equipment and miners will be at their mercy trying to get better miners as btc becomes more difficult to mine. But I gotta look into this more.

 

[Rickdogg44]

I need to know the real, do I need to understand that Greek shyt to eat? I’m done learning shyt in life

Not really if thetaganging/wheeling. Just sell cash secured puts around .30 delta. 30 to 60 days out. I've made money every time on this. I normal close out at 50% gains. But I'm impatient and gains are not as strong as if I would have just bought the stock and rode it up (missed out "all in gang" gainz ). But it keeps you mostly cash. And you can roll out if ever really contested.

I started getting little more risky by vegagang it and sell cash secured puts around earnings ... still around .30 delta (weeklies or even ~30 days out) for iv crush.

More risk is selling at the money ... probably around .5 delta, more premium tho.

The basics that @Serious posted is good. I'm sure if I was buying options instead of selling i would need to know more. Time/theta always on your side when selling

 

[Deafheaven]

Upon reading up on rblx getting in at the floor of it is a goldmine so many fire plays out chea

Still jelly of the early Elon gang yall goals

 

[FabTrey]

FOMO is never a good reason to invest in anything.

Tesla has been the future for years now. What's different about it now than it was say a year ago or even at the stock split? It's still the same company.

Any way you slice it a lot of people looked at Tesla and saw how volatile it was. They deemed it an unsafe investment and backed away. Now that all this momentum has gotten into it people are trying to hop on a moving train because they think it's safe now. I beg to differ, the risk is different now and less obvious but it's still not a sure thing like people want to pretend.

It's the same as with BTC on it's last run where people were getting cash off credit cards to try and buy BTC cause it was in the $20K range and they didn't wanna miss out. You get all these people piling into something they don't actually believe in because they see it as some sort of no brainer lotto ticket and think it's a safe bet once things don't go that way you could get trampled by people running for the exits.

It isn't even Tesla that concerns me it's the people we got piling into this thing now that do. Nobody is acknowledging any of the risk anymore because they see this propped up on itself.

He owns a Tesla and even he's admitted that with a few changes he'd jump ship. It's mainly the range and the charging network. Tesla is ahead but it's not insurmountably ahead.

and you still thinking cars. of course porsche makes a great car. they are a great CAR company.
Is porsche a threat? absolutely not. Model S or X is just for the show. Tesla's bread and butter will be 3, Y, 25k car, and a cybertruck.

Threats and risks are part of the game. other brands will likely get better. But things Tesla will do this decade will not only disrupt the industry, but they have a chance to change the world basically.

There are nice innovations by other brands too. how about NIO's nice battery swap technology? oh wait, that's something Elon tried to pursue back in 2013. They thought it was not an ideal business decision because battery cost will continue to go down and range will continue to improve.

but big picture - we thinkin something much bigger than just a car. Obviously this crazy valuation is all about tesla being a tech/energy company. when you stop thinking about cars it will all make sense.

and i'll sell all my shares if these things happen

1. cathie wood sells all of her shares
2. elon quits
3. they stopped innovating

until then i'll hold my share and will buy the dip if the dip ever happens.

 

[NatiboyB]

Hypothetically If I deposited money on the 7th to buy a stock and used those funds and then sold said stocks on the 8th Im not in some type of violation right

I know it takes a couple eays for etf from ur bank to settle but they let you cop stocks immediately. Sorry if this is a dumb ass question but I cain find a solid answer on google

I know that as long as the funds are deposited when the broker requests withdrawal you are good. It’s been times where I have deposited funds and with instant deposit bought stocks and the broker would retrieve the funds a few days later. I will have bought and sold multiple penny stocks for example by the time the original funds were deducted.

Is that what you are asking?

 

[Deafheaven]

I know that as long as the funds are deposited when the broker requests withdrawal you are good. It’s been times where I have deposited funds and with instant deposit bought stocks and the broker would retrieve the funds a few days later.

Ahh so youd most likely be good selling a day or two latet cuz the funds would have been transferred before the sell even if they arent at the time of.

Thanks for the reply breh rep

 

[Insensitive]

$28 billion in revenue TTM
$834 billion in market cap
A price / sales ratio should be under 2 and ideally 1. Tesla is 29.

If we froze Tesla's market cap where it is right now and assumed they could double their revenue every couple years it would take them 10 years to grow into their current valuation. If we go back and look from 17-18 they doubled their revenue. From 18-19 they went from $21 billion to $24 billion and their trailing 12 months is $28 billion. Let's give them $31 billion and assume in Q4 2020 they did $10 billion in revenue. We'll say revenue grew 31% YOY.

31% revenue growth means they're 13 years away from reaching this valuation. The truth is as your revenue grows it gets harder to continue growing it. Amazon grew their revenue 21% or so from 18-19 and the TTM is under 21% now. Amazon is a beast and has revenue in the range of 10x of Tesla's in 2019. Amazon isn't growing at 31% YOY revenue growth.

What I really need to look into is how did Cathie Wood's numbers account for such an irrational drastic overvaluation of Tesla. She effectively predicted the stock market's irrationality over this.

She might've been able to see the writing on the wall because everyone wants to be on the ground
floor of the next Amazon and we're a generation of newly minted investors who haven't experienced
a major crash like the older guard.


I think most everyone in this thread investing is 30 and under, so the dotCom crash is a million years ago as far as we're
concerned. And because of that, the over optimism in the market or more related to Tesla, seems to be because Tesla
is seen as a tech company more so than car manufacturer which can help to explain why the company is such astronomical
investing which doesn't match their current output.
Which leads me to thinking Cathy might see them similarly to how the general public does.

By the way, I hope it didn't come off as if I'm implying that you haven't done
your due diligence in my last post.

 

[Controversy]

She might've been able to see the writing on the wall because everyone wants to be on the ground
floor of the next Amazon and we're a generation of newly minted investors who haven't experienced
a major crash like the older guard.


I think most everyone in this thread investing is 30 and under, so the dotCom crash is a million years ago as far as we're
concerned. And because of that, the over optimism in the market or more related to Tesla, seems to be because Tesla
is seen as a tech company more so than car manufacturer which can help to explain why the company is such astronomical
investing which doesn't match their current output.
Which leads me to thinking Cathy might see them similarly to how the general public does.

By the way, I hope it didn't come off as if I'm implying that you haven't done
your due diligence in my last post.

Favorable public sentiment drives up share price...that had to be factored in Cathie's thinking somehow

When a company is innovative, when you know the CEO's name (Bezos, Gates, Jobs), when the company has name recognition (Amazon, Apple, IPhone)...when ppl become believers in the product or services you offer (Prime, IPhone, Microsoft Office Suite)...you have nowhere to go but up

this now describes Tesla

 

[NatiboyB]

Ahh so youd most likely be good selling a day or two latet cuz the funds would have been transferred before the sell even if they arent at the time of.

Thanks for the reply breh rep

of course it may be broker dependent but I’ve definitely did fast moves....Matter of fact I just did one this week with BNGO using instant deposit