Bannon now on National Security Council

DrBanneker

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Figthing borg at Wolf 359
Not happening.

Since 1991, Russia and China have slowly strengthened their strategic relationship. China aims to get everything it needs from Russia through trade. Everything Russia needs such as the gaps in its technology and investment requirements can be met by China. China depends on critical Russian technology for its military.

Its a marriage made in heaven and it accelerated because the West acted provocatively and threatened both Russia and China. NATO expansion and the Pivot to Asia are just two examples.

This alliance checkmates all the attempts at encircling both China and Russia and the nightmare of Sir Halford Makinder who clearly represented the British empires strategy of preventing such a union in Eurasia.

The US inherited Britain's role as a maritime power and they dropped the ball when they created conditions that allowed this alliance to happen.

Trump has nothing to give Russia. The sanctions might have been one of the best things to happen to Russia in terms of diversifying their economy. According to estimates, the economy will be back to growth this year after the recession. Pro-western oligarchs who are allowed to own some media in Russia are hurt by sanctions and are upset. The average person on the street has faced hardship, but they have been told that its due to sanctions so they are rallying behind the flag.
The Russian government does not want sanctions lifted for another few years, and they will drag their feet on their own counter sanctions
because it keeps out price dumping of agricultural products from the EU. Russian agriculture exports have boomed during the sanctions.

The US has weak cards to play, there's a short term window of technological superiority another 10 years max. The Chinese are getting aggressive because they know they can fight right now but it will be too costly. In the early 2000's a war would have been a cakewalk at sea and air for the USA just like the 1991 Gulf War.

Today China can hurt the US bad, probably wipe out 2/3 of the pacific fleet for horrendous losses.

The Russians talk more, the Chinese barely talk much. Putin remarked a month ago of the relationship between the two countries being much more than strategic.

No matter what Trump or Bannon think, they aren't breaking up the marriage of Moscow and Beijing. And the US isn't going to war with Iran without those two along with other countries such as India, Turkey, and South Korea throwing a fit due to trade relations.

@FAH1223 is pretty on point here like usual. Some experts in the US claim that China will try to take Far East Russia since it is so underpopulated:rudy:. China can just buy raw materials without the hassle of fighting a war that could go nuclear. Russia will be happy to sell. In addition, China is not facing additional population pressures going forward as its population growth has peaked and it now faces a shrinking work force, not much more labor to pull from the countryside (based on historical migration aka the Lewis Turning Point--by the only Black Nobel Laureate in Econ), and an aging population.

The biggest threats to Russia and China aren't anything we can do. Internal pressures such as low fertility demographics (both), an increasingly debt ladden and unstable economy (China), possibility of widespread social instability if the economy crashes (China), and problems with promoting domestic manufacturing and innovation instead of agriculture/natural resources (Russia).
 

DrBanneker

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Uh, yes. That's primarily why. The fact anyone is shocked that a guy that has openly said "fukk the political establishment" is drawing ire from said establishment should come at no shock.

Oh no he's a civic nationalist! The horror!

If we declare war on Iran or Syria during this administration I'll eat my words, but until then, people need to quit freaking out and buying into the MSM alarmist hysteria that's been propagated en masse lately.

Tbh I doubt a foreign war is deliberately in the cards. Trump has been pretty clear he was against the neo con type of regime change and foreign adventure BS. I give him that. My biggest concern is how he will craft a national security strategy friendly towards right wing (e.g. LePen) leaders and other autocracies more to his liking and fukk up our alliances. I am not a fan of the EU but for a US President to openly try to sabotage it with Bannon's help seems like a bizarre thing to do.
 

USSInsiders

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Tbh I doubt a foreign war is deliberately in the cards. Trump has been pretty clear he was against the neo con type of regime change and foreign adventure BS. I give him that. My biggest concern is how he will craft a national security strategy friendly towards right wing (e.g. LePen) leaders and other autocracies more to his liking and fukk up our alliances. I am not a fan of the EU but for a US President to openly try to sabotage it with Bannon's help seems like a bizarre thing to do.

I doubt there is a war as well, but the fact Trump openly fellated AIPAC and is getting public co-signs from Netanyahu is not good in my opinion. Now some of the most ardent trump supporters say there is more to the story there, but I'll be convinced when it actually doesn't happen.

I just don't want another war man.
 

DrBanneker

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I just don't want another war man.

Co-sign.
Especially since all the easy targets (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc.) are gone. Anyone else will be shytfest like we haven't had for decades.

As far as Netanyahu, I don't know Israeli politics that well but it could go two ways. Last time he tried something, Israeli security establishment was up his ass and even almost publicly sabotaged him. But with the far right parties holding up his coalition, he may try some crazy stuff to survive politically...
 

DrBanneker

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yea..

and even overlooking all of that. That use China against Russia/vice versa card was used back in the 60s-70s. It wouldn't work again.

This New Silk Road project which could see much of the Asian freight now going by sea traveling through Russia could be a boon for Russia too and they know it. They have a lot more to lose now than in the 1960s.

Yeah, I think the only thing that could drive a wedge between them is if the US shyts the bed--at least as far as global influence in Eurasia goes. Then we may see friction, especially in Central Asia, where you have countries like Kazahkstan who is a huge recipient of Chinese investment goods and influence but is also part of the Russia/Belarus/Kazakh Customs Union. Also, China is reaching conventional superiority over Russia militarily but I'm not sure if this matters as much when both have nukes and there are no huge frictions.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization is good but fighting terrorism and for regional security but such things only bond you so much. As long as we are around though, they will paper over the cracks.
 

FLATOP

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The military really bout have a coup if the coward GOP congress dont impeach :mjlol:
 

African Peasant

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Putin's Russia is filled to the brim with Neo-Nazis.
:dahell:

:dahell:
Did I say Russia was free from neo-nazi ? You have neo-nazi in Russia. But as I said Putin kept them in check. They were out of control 5 years ago. But
Putin sent a lot of them to jail.

They don't have any political power.
 

African Peasant

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I never believed in the solidity of the Russia-China alliance, since in my mind China is trying to cannibalize Russia. To me they are "alliés de circonstance".

But some people here have shown some sold arguments supporting the solidity of those ties.

Let's see how Putin will react to an american policy friendly toward him and agressive toward China. The two firsts tests will be trade and the South china see issue.
 
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