This is a FDA Headline:
Released after market closed yesterday.
Amarin Corporation plc (NASDAQ:AMRN) continues to be an affront to the technical instincts of even a conservative mean-reversion strategy for even the most benign of bears. And quite possibly for good reason. The stock ripped higher once again on Thursday following the company’s Q3 financials and a discussion from management that really held nothing back.
Most significantly, the management commentary confirmed the sense of a world-beating force coming to fruition in Vascepa: “The landmark results of the REDUCE-IT study present an important opportunity to improve the practice of medicine with respect to preventative cardiovascular care. We believe that these outcomes study results position Vascepa to address a significant unmet medical need and could be considered the most significant breakthrough in preventative cardiovascular care since the advent of statin therapy decades ago. We are very excited about the potential for Vascepa to help millions of patients and we are acting accordingly to expand on our established commercial foundation, including existing broad managed care coverage and extensive key opinion leader support,” stated John F. Thero, president and chief executive officer. “Amarin looks forward to the primary REDUCE-IT outcomes study results being presented at AHA and to working towards the future publication of these results in a major medical journal within 2018.”
From Jeffries yesterday:
Jefferies Raise PT of AMRN after market close today:
Amarin Corporation (AMRN): Q3: Curtain Down at AHA; Prepared to Expand; Raise PT to $30 from $15,
Price Target $30.00 (from $15.00)
Price $22.64
Key Takeaway
Key NT catalyst is full REDUCE-IT data presentation at AHA (11/10). We believe details on MACE components and effect size in sub-populations of greatest interest and, if positive, will drive higher Rx behavior and valuation. Big picture, sales could reach statin-like levels (~$5-$10B) with positive risk/benefit profile consistent across reported measures. With commercial expansion underway, we increase adjusted peak sales to $3.7B in 2030, and raise PT to $30.
Vascepa continues to grow, but the impact of REDUCE-IT is yet to come. Vascepa sales increased to all-time high $55M in Q3 (vs. $53M in Q2, and $44M in Q1). The normalized TRx in Q3 reached 458K and 457K in symphony and IQVIA, respectively. Co noted these sales were not reflective of the potential impact from the REDUCE-IT results, which is expected to come after the detailed data are presented/published and trained sales reps start to convey the message to prescribers
