Another Big Win For Putin!!!

[Thsnnor]

Didn't see this in major media yet. Putin upped the ante.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Putin to Western elites: Play-time is over

Most people in the English-speaking parts of the world missed Putin's speech at the Valdai conference in Sochi a few days ago, and, chances are, those of you who have heard of the speech didn't get a chance to read it, and missed its importance. (For your convenience, I am pasting in the full transcript of his speech below.) Western media did their best to ignore it or to twist its meaning. Regardless of what you think or don't think of Putin (like the sun and the moon, he does not exist for you to cultivate an opinion) this is probably the most important political speech since Churchill's “Iron Curtain” speech of March 5, 1946.

In this speech, Putin abruptly changed the rules of the game. Previously, the game of international politics was played as follows: politicians made public pronouncements, for the sake of maintaining a pleasant fiction of national sovereignty, but they were strictly for show and had nothing to do with the substance of international politics; in the meantime, they engaged in secret back-room negotiations, in which the actual deals were hammered out. Previously, Putin tried to play this game, expecting only that Russia be treated as an equal. But these hopes have been dashed, and at this conference he declared the game to be over, explicitly violating Western taboo by speaking directly to the people over the heads of elite clans and political leaders.

The Russian blogger chipstone summarized the most salient points from Putin speech as follows:

1. Russia will no longer play games and engage in back-room negotiations over trifles. But Russia is prepared for serious conversations and agreements, if these are conducive to collective security, are based on fairness and take into account the interests of each side.

2. All systems of global collective security now lie in ruins. There are no longer any international security guarantees at all. And the entity that destroyed them has a name: The United States of America.

3. The builders of the New World Order have failed, having built a sand castle. Whether or not a new world order of any sort is to be built is not just Russia's decision, but it is a decision that will not be made without Russia.

4. Russia favors a conservative approach to introducing innovations into the social order, but is not opposed to investigating and discussing such innovations, to see if introducing any of them might be justified.

5. Russia has no intention of going fishing in the murky waters created by America's ever-expanding “empire of chaos,” and has no interest in building a new empire of her own (this is unnecessary; Russia's challenges lie in developing her already vast territory). Neither is Russia willing to act as a savior of the world, as she had in the past.

6. Russia will not attempt to reformat the world in her own image, but neither will she allow anyone to reformat her in their image. Russia will not close herself off from the world, but anyone who tries to close her off from the world will be sure to reap a whirlwind.

7. Russia does not wish for the chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one. However, today Russia sees the outbreak of global war as almost inevitable, is prepared for it, and is continuing to prepare for it. Russia does not war—nor does she fear it.

8. Russia does not intend to take an active role in thwarting those who are still attempting to construct their New World Order—until their efforts start to impinge on Russia's key interests. Russia would prefer to stand by and watch them give themselves as many lumps as their poor heads can take. But those who manage to drag Russia into this process, through disregard for her interests, will be taught the true meaning of pain.

9. In her external, and, even more so, internal politics, Russia's power will rely not on the elites and their back-room dealing, but on the will of the people.

To these nine points I would like to add a tenth:

10. There is still a chance to construct a new world order that will avoid a world war. This new world order must of necessity include the United States—but can only do so on the same terms as everyone else: subject to international law and international agreements; refraining from all unilateral action; in full respect of the sovereignty of other nations.

To sum it all up: play-time is over. Children, put away your toys. Now is the time for the adults to make decisions. Russia is ready for this; is the world?

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2014/10/putin-to-western-elites-play-time-is.html

 

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Groundhog Day in Moscow as Russia seizes another privatized oil company

• by
  
• Geoffrey Smith

• @Geoffreytsmith

OCTOBER 30, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT

Echoes of Yukos affair as a lucrative oil company is seized on a point of law that had been ignored for 10 years.

A Russian court ruled to seize the shares of Bashneft, one of the country’s largest oil companies, effectively renationalizing it and overturning an allegedly fraudulent privatization whose results had stood for over 10 years.

The case has sent shivers through Russia’s business community, a fresh reminder that the ownership of the country’s biggest industrial assets still isn’t safe, nearly two decades after they were sold in frequently flawed or corrupt privatizations.

The case has been compared to the nationalization of Yukos in 2004 over alleged tax evasion and fraud by its owner, Mkihail Khodorkovsky. The politically ambitious Khodorkovsky, who was Russia’s richest man at the time, was subsequently jailed for 10 years, before being given a conditional release at the end of last year.

His company, meanwhile, was sold off, indirectly, to the then state-owned company OAO Rosneft for a song. Rosneft is now chaired by Igor Sechin, who had directed the campaign against Khodorkovsky from his position as deputy chief of staff at the Kremlin.

Bashneft is majority-owned by the London-listed conglomerate OAO AFK Sistema, whose billionaire head Vladimir Evtushenkov is currently under house arrest on charges of money laundering. He denies the charges and has said he will contest them.

Sistema had built a controlling stake in Bashneft with two acquisitions in 2005 and 2009. For $2.5 billion, it bought Bashneft and other energy companies with lucrative local monopolies from vehicles controlled by Ural Rakhimov, the son of the then-president of Bashkortostan, the company’s home region.

Rosneft says it’s not interested in buying Bashneft, but it would be an attractive source of cash for a company in Rosneft’s position. Rosneft is heavily indebted and is shut out of western markets by western sanctions. It has to repay $14 billion by February. Last week, it asked the Finance Ministry for $50 billion from Russia’s National Welfare Fund to help it with its debt repayments, but was rebuffed.

Although perceived as one of the most corrupt regions in the country, Rakhimov senior had been tolerated by President Vladimir Putin for years, even after scrapping elections for regional leaders and making them accountable only to him. Rakhimov ultimately resigned early from his third term in 2010.

Prosecutors allege that the sale of the state’s interest in Bashneft to Rakhimov junior’s companies had been illegal, a view endorsed ahead of the trial in a recent interview by a Rosneft spokesman.

The privatization had, however, received all the necessary state approvals at the time. Sistema had in turn also received the approval of federal regulators when buying the company.

Paradoxically, Sistema’s depositary receipts rose 14% in London on the news, mainly because the court didn’t immediately confiscate some $4.5 billion in dividends that Bashneft and the Bashkir energy companies had paid Sistema since 2009. They’re still down 74% year-to-date.

However, the news agency Interfax quoted an official as saying that the return of illegally seized assets “will go progressively and in stages.”

The case has been seen in Moscow as another sign of the ascendancy of policy ‘hawks’ such as Sechin over more liberal figures such as Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev was quoted by ITAR-TASS as saying that: “Entrepreneurs definitely should not live in an atmosphere of fear…Businessmen of good faith must be under the protection of the law, they have to be protected and encouraged as much as possible.”

Sistema, whose biggest other asset is a stake in NYSE-listed mobile carrier OAO Mobile TeleSystems MBT 5.95% ,said Thursday its individual units continue to operate as normal, but said the “ongoing litigation could have a significant negative impact” on its own financial condition and obligations.

It has a month to appeal the ruling.

http://fortune.com/2014/10/30/groun...russia-seizes-another-privatized-oil-company/

 

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Bombardier puts Q400 plant in Russia on hold
Company has set aside plans for a $3.4 billion deal to build turboprops in Russia due to political situation and economy.

JOE GIDDENS/THE CANADIAN PRESS

Employees work at the Bombardier plant in Derby, England. The company announced third-quarter earnings that beat analysts' forecasts.


By: Vanessa Lu Business reporter, Business Reporter, Published on Thu Oct 30 2014
Bombardier Inc. has put on hold a $3.4 billion (U.S.) plan to build up to 100 Q400 turboprops in Russia due to the political situation there.

“We are not moving ahead because the conditions are not right at this point in time for a joint venture in Russia,” said Bombardier president and CEO Pierre Beaudoin on a conference call with reporters on Thursday.

In 2013, Bombardier signed a letter of intent to sell Russia’s state-owned Rostekhnologii, known as Rostec, 50 Q400 turboprops with the possibility of another 50.

As part of the deal, Bombardier said it would work toward establishing a final assembly plant in Russia for the Q400 planes. A definitive agreement had been expected to be signed this year.

“It’s been pushed back to at least 2015,” Beaudoin said. “Given the political situation and the economy in Russia, we are setting this project aside for the time being.”

Canada has been a vocal critic of Russian president of Vladmir Putin over Russia’s annexation of Crimea and arming of rebels in Ukraine’s east. Canada joined the European Union and the United States in imposing sanctions on Russia.

Beaudoin said that even though the assembly plant is on hold, Bombardier still believes Russia is a good market for the turboprop and is talking about ways to sell the plane there.

His comments came after Bombardier, which reports in U.S. dollars, announced third-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ forecasts.

Revenues, which include both plane and train divisions, totalled $4.9 billion for the quarter, compared to $4.1 billion for the same period last year, an increase of 20 per cent excluding currency impacts.

Net income totalled $74 million, or 3 cents per share, compared to $147 million or 8 cents for the same period the previous year. On an adjusted basis, net income amounted to $222 million, or 12 cents per share, compared to $165 million, or 9 cents per share, in the same period the previous year.

The company also said 2,000 layoffs in the aerospace division and 900 layoffs in the transportation division as part of restructuring efforts would eventually bring $200 million savings in aerospace and $68 million in transportation.

The company also reiterated its view that development of its CSeries plane remains on track, with entry into service still expected in the second half of 2015.

The plane, which is designed to take Bombardier from a small regional jet player into the larger commercial jet market, has suffered delays, including an engine fire in May.

The flight test program resumed in September, and so far there have been 450 flight test hours.

After first flight last year, Bombardier said it anticipated 2,400 flight test hours would be needed before certification, raising questions from analysts on how everything could be completed on the current timelines.

“Flight hours are always a guideline. What is important for us is that we accomplish certain tests to certify the aircraft,” Beaudoin said. “So if we can do it in less flight hours, the better it is, because it will cost less money.”

He added that the number of flight hours required could vary substantially.

Bombardier still expects its smaller CS100 aircraft to enter service in the second half of 2015 with the larger CS300 aircraft to follow about six months afterwards.

Beaudoin anticipated gradual hiring of staff for the assembly of the CSeries in Montreal to begin in the second quarter of 2015.


With files from the Star’s wire services

http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/10/30/bombardier_puts_q400_plant_in_russia_on_hold.html

 

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Profits Crash Dramatically For Russia's Rosneft After Sanctions

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October 29, 2014

Russian state-controlled energy giant Rosneft says its profits during the third quarter of 2014 crashed dramatically after Western sanctions were imposed over Russia’s role in the Ukraine crisis.

Rosneft said on October 29 that its third-quarter net profits fell by 99.3 percent – down to $24.4 million -- compared to the same three-month period in 2013.

Rosneft’s access to Western financing and technology – needed to service its debts and bring east Siberian fields online – has been cut by the sanctions.

Rosneft also has been hurt by the falling value of Russia’s ruble currency.

Russia’s Economic Development Minister Aleksei Ulyukayev said on October 29 that the government cannot satisfy a request from Rosneft for a further bailout to help it service debts.

In August, Rosneft asked the Russian government for a huge financial bailout to help it repay debts of about $45 billion.

Based on reporting by Reuters and AFP

http://www.rferl.org/content/rosneft-profits-crash-sanctions-ukraine/26664883.html

 

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Russians Re-write History to Slur Ukraine Over War

http://time.com/3545855/russia-ukraine-war-history/

The trio of German historians, as well as a handful of their colleagues from Eastern Europe, flew into Moscow last week for what they thought would be a conference on the history of Nazi war crimes. It was the fifth in a series of international summits held every other year since 2006, first in Berlin and Cologne, then in Slovakia and Belarus, to keep alive the memory of the towns and villages destroyed during World War II. But the German co-chairman of the conference, Sven Borsche, began to feel that something was amiss in Moscow as soon as he met his Russian hosts. “All they wanted to talk about was the conflict in Ukraine,” he says.

longer article in link

 

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Russia may limit Belarus, Ukraine food shipments: RIA


(Reuters) - Moscow may limit food shipments from Belarus and Ukraine to Kazakhstan across Russian territory because of attempts to sell banned imports in Russia, the head of Russia's veterinary and phytosanitary service (VPSS) was quoted as saying on Thursday.

In early August, Russia banned about $9 billion worth of imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish and dairy from the European Union and some other countries in retaliation for Western sanctions over the crisis in Ukraine.

"We will be talking about stopping the transit to Kazakhstan through the borders of Belarus and Ukraine and allowing it only via our checkpoints," RIA news agency quoted Sergei Dankvert as saying.

Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan have a free-trade zone as part of their customs union, and Minsk has promised to prevent banned foods from being shipped onward to Russia.

Kazakhstan is ready to cooperate with Russia if it plans to discuss the toughening of checkpoint controls on the Russia-EU border, Kazakh deputy national economy minister Madina Abylkasymova told reporters in Astana.

"But an introduction of some kind of restriction on the transit of products that Kazakhstan imports from the European Union is out of the question," she added.

Moscow's VPSS recently reported that 8,000 tonnes of meat, falsely labeled as coming from Brazil and destined for Kazakhstan, had been delivered to Russia via Belarus, Dankvert said.


The service managed to find about 300 tonnes of the meat, while 7,500 tonnes "got lost in Russia", he added.

Russia's veterinary service may also ban pork imports from Belarus due to suspected outbreaks of African swine fever, the service said. It planned to discuss the issue at a meeting with the Belarussian agriculture ministry on Thursday.

Belarus has suspended shipments of pork to Russia until Nov. 11, when officials plan to discuss the issue again, the service was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency later on Thursday.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...IJ0RR20141030?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

 

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Ukraine Unspun: Chechnya War Pic Passed Off As Ukraine Atrocity By Hackers, Russian TV

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This photo -- showing a Russian soldiers inspecting bodies of civilians in a mass grave in Chechnya in 1995 -- was used by Russia's state-owned Channel One television to highlight recent Ukrainian suffering.



October 27, 2014

Aday before the October 26 parliamentary elections in Ukraine, hackers accessed electronic billboards in Kyiv and broadcast gruesome images of what they portrayed as civilian carnage wrought by Ukrainian forces battling pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country.

Russian state-owned Channel One television then aired a report on the stunt, describing the photographs as “horrifying images of the events in Donbas,” a reference to the Donetsk and Luhansk areas where separatists control of swaths of land.

At least one of these images, however, pre-dates the Ukraine conflict by nearly two decades. It originally showed a Russian soldier standing over mass graves of civilians in Chechnya in 1995 during Russia's own bloody battle with separatists in the restive North Caucasus republic.

The image was snapped by photographer Alexander Nemenov on March 31, 1995, at an Orthodox cemetery in Chechnya's capital, Grozny, according to the AFP photo archive. The bodies were those of civilians "killed in winter fighting" that were "exhumed for identification," according to AFP.

The soldier was cropped out of the image broadcast October 25 on the Kyiv billboards. Only the dozens of decaying bodies sprawled out in a shallow ditch were shown from the original photograph.

A capture of the Russian Channel One report, in which the Russian troop seen in the original photo (above) has been cropped out.
A group calling itself "Cyber Berkut" took credit for the billboard cyberattack.

It was not the first time that disturbing images of violence in the North Caucasus have been passed off as evidence of atrocities by Ukraine’s government in the conflict.

In May, state-owned Russian broadcaster Rossiya-1used video material aired 18 months earlier in a report on an antiterrorist operation in the Russian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria. The footage was used to suggest that Kyiv forces murdered a civilian to intimidate separatists in the Donetsk region.

Kremlin-appointed media boss Dmitry Kiselyov later called the broadcast "an error" but "in no way a manipulation." He said that "young, nymph video technicians" were responsible.

Footage of the hijacked electronic billboards aired by Channel One included the image of the mass grave in Chechnya.

The hackers’ montage flashed other photographs of the dead and maimed as well, alternating these images with headshots of Ukrainian politicians, including Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, whose People’s Front Party was running neck and neck with President Petro Poroshenko's bloc to win the election, according to partial results as of October 27.

Each politician’s photograph in the video was embossed with a red stamp reading, "War Criminal."

The United Nations has accused both the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists of abuses in the seven-month-old conflict, while rights group like Amnesty International charge that both sides have engaged in torture, shelling of civilian areas, and summary executions.

John Dalhuisen, the Europe and Central Asia director at Amnesty, singled out the Russian media last week for its reporting on atrocities, saying that "some of the more shocking cases" it has reported "have been hugely exaggerated."

Cyber Berkut takes its name from the disbanded Berkut riot-police force, which has been implicated in the February killing of 100 protesters in Kyiv during street protests against then-President Viktor Yanukovych.

The group claimed responsibility for cyberattacks on NATO websites earlier this year.

-- Carl Schreck

http://www.rferl.org/content/russian-media-propaganda-ukraine-conflict-chechnya/26660126.html

 

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30 October 2014 Last updated at 07:02 ET
Russian Soviet-era remembrance group Memorial risks closure
By Sarah RainsfordBBC News, Moscow

The "Bringing Back Names" ceremony outside the old KGB headquarters lasts for 12 hours
Continue reading the main story
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Every year at the end of October a crowd gathers in central Moscow next to a large stone, brought from a Soviet prison camp.

As music plays quietly, people step up to a microphone, one by one, and read out a list of names.

After each name comes a date and one, stark word: "Shot."

The ceremony is organised by Memorial, Russia's oldest civil rights group established in the late 1980s by dissidents including Andrei Sakharov.

It works to restore the memory of the hundreds of thousands of victims of Soviet political repression.

But Russia's justice ministry has called for Memorial to be "liquidated", throwing the group's future into doubt and raising protest at home and abroad.

The stone comes from the Solovky Islands, where one of the first Gulag prison camps was built in 1923

The naming ceremony comes on the eve of a day of remembrance for victims of Soviet-era repression
"The aim is to put pressure on independent, civil society," argues Memorial's Alexander Cherkasov, who says the ministry's complaints concern details of how Memorial and its numerous national branches are registered.

Memorial's leaders contacted the ministry to discuss the new requirements at a conference called for late November, but they won't have a chance. They have been summoned to a Supreme Court hearing on 13 November which will rule on the organisation's closure.

"They want to shut us down," Mr Cherkasov believes. "There's no understanding that groups like this are an important part of a healthy society."

This summer, Memorial's human rights wing was forcibly registered as a "foreign agent" under a new law singling out groups that receive grants from overseas.

Over the years, its activists have been a regular thorn in the government's side, documenting human rights violations in Chechnya, political detentions, and more recently criticising Russian involvement in the crisis in Ukraine.

A sign on the square recalls that in 1937-38 more than 30,000 people were executed in Moscow alone
But highlighting the darkest episodes of Russia's past may also be unpopular, when politicians are busy stoking national pride and recalling more glorious eras.

"It may be a political gesture, to shrink the possibilities for organisations like Memorial," said EU Ambassador to Russia Vygaudas Usackas.

He called for Russia to demonstrate that such concerns over free speech were ill-founded, by giving the group time to comply with new regulations.

Russia's foreign ministry rejects all suggestion that the case is political: the justice ministry has uncovered "violations" at Memorial that need addressing, a statement reads.

Memorial's future will be decided at a Supreme Court in November
But those gathered around the Solovetsky stone were sceptical.

"I think it's an attempt to stop what we're doing now," Elena Bagrimenko says, after laying a candle and flowers beside the memorial stone.

Her own great grandfather was a priest, killed in the purges - Stalin's deadly, paranoia-fuelled drive against supposed "enemies of the state".

"Of course we are worried," she adds as others intone more names in the background. An economist, a hospital accountant, a peasant - all shot.

Stalin's Terror
"If Memorial is stopped our history will be silenced and the victims forgotten, just as we were beginning to remember them," she argues.

"If we don't remember these things, they can repeat and I'm afraid they will," adds Mikhail Markovich, who believes that political repressions in Russia are increasing again.

But he takes hope from the large crowd queuing to recall the victims of Stalin's Terror.

A sign on the square recalls that in 1937-38 more than 30,000 people were executed in Moscow alone. Without the work of Memorial, their names and their stories may never have been known.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29831134

What Soviet Union?

 

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Russia eyes railway-for-resources project with North Korea

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Moscow (AFP) - Russia is eyeing a project worth about $25 billion to overhaul North Korea's railway network in return for access to mineral resources in the hermit state, Moscow's government daily reported on Thursday.

The mammoth project would involve the modernisation of about 3,000 kilometres (1,875 miles) of the Stalinist nation's ageing railroads over a 20-year period, minister for development of Far Eastern Russia Alexander Galushka told state-run Rossiskaya Gazeta.

"It is a commercial project that is mutually advantageous," Galushka was quoted as saying.

The railway upgrades would focus first on the sections near deposits of natural resources, said the minister.

Income from the exploitation of deposits would then go to a joint Russian-Korean company to fund the railroad overhaul, he said.

North Korea is thought to be lying on vast reserves of resources, including uranium, iron ore, magnesium and other minerals.

North Korea had warm ties with the former Soviet Union based on shared ideology. Russia retains relatively close ties with its neighbour but has backed Western powers in dealing with Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.

In May, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law cancelling 90 percent of North Korea's $10.94 billion debt to Russia from Soviet-era loans.

Moscow has looked to boost ties with Asia in the face of harsh sanctions from the EU and US over its role in the Ukraine crisis.

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-eyes-railway-resources-project-north-korea-110352721.html

@Domingo Halliburton @Futuristic Eskimo So I guess it's come to this?

 

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27 October 2014 Last updated at 06:29 ET
Russia in grim go-it-alone mood as sanctions bite

By Bridget KendallDiplomatic correspondent, BBC News, Sochi

Sochi was given a lavish makeover for the Winter Olympics
Continue reading the main story
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Russia's efforts to reduce its reliance on trade with the West overshadowed a high-profile meeting between President Vladimir Putin and foreign correspondents in Sochi.

The annual "Valdai Club" meeting took place at the Black Sea resort which hosted this year's Winter Olympics. It was also meant to be the venue for a G8 summit this year - but that was cancelled because of the Ukraine crisis and sanctions against Russia.

"I'm not sorry the G8 didn't happen," one senior Russian official told us, not entirely convincingly. "In any case, now we have this asset to use in the best interests of Russia."

Appearances can be deceptive, though. The architectural legacy of this most expensive of Winter Games may look like an Olympic white elephant.

But in fact, we were told, most hotels are already fully booked for the upcoming winter ski season. Forget Switzerland. A New Year party in Sochi is, it seems, the latest hot ticket for the loyal elite of Mr Putin's new Russia.

For it is not foreign visitors whom the Russian government is relying upon to recoup the astronomical costs of the Olympic extravaganza, but patriots with money who need to demonstrate their allegiance to the Kremlin.

Mr Putin lashed out at US foreign policy in his speech in Sochi

The forum was used by the Kremlin to blame the West for the Ukraine crisis

Mr Putin's Orthodox faith helps to promote a patriotic stance defiant of Western values
It makes Sochi a good metaphor for one of President Putin's favourite themes at the moment: that Russia should not rely on outsiders any more - the only way it will grow stronger is by reducing its exposure to outside influence and drawing on its own resources to solve problems.

New restrictions
Thus, months before the Ukraine crisis, Russian officials with a taste for foreign luxury were being told to close foreign bank accounts, repatriate assets, and bring their families back to Russia.

No wonder Russian officials shrugged at US and EU blacklists. They are already under instructions not to travel.

A sticker at an agricultural fair in Moscow says: "Stavropol's answer to sanctions"
No wonder the Russian government imposed a ban on food imports from EU countries. Patriotic Russians these days are supposed to spurn continental cheese and yoghurt, to support their own dairy industry.

A series of senior Russian officials who came to talk to us in our mountain eyrie tried hard to argue that Western sanctions - far from being a blow - were really an opportunity.

Yes, they admitted, there had been some pain, especially in Russia's financial sector (foreign currency loans which are increasingly hard to service, billions lost in capital flight, plunging rates for the rouble), and especially with a budget squeezed by almost zero growth and falling oil prices.

But from the president down, the litany was the same: sanctions will only make Russia more determined and more resilient.

'Crimea is closed'
"The topic of Crimea is closed," said one official. "You in the West may not accept it for a hundred years. But we are patient. Our dispute with Japan over the Kurile Islands has continued for decades. Crimea is a closed subject."

Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in March, triggering Western sanctions, which have become tougher since then.

"Whenever problems come from abroad, it unites the Russian people around their leader," said another official.

And if the Americans thought sanctions would isolate Russia, they were wrong, argued Mr Putin. Russia would simply turn to China and other Asian partners. Plus, reluctant Europeans eager to restart trade with Russia would surely soon come to their senses.

This year Russia and China signed a historic 30-year gas deal worth $400bn (£248bn)
"The worst thing that could happen to Russia right now is for sanctions to be lifted quickly," was the astonishing claim of one top figure, an economist who used to advocate Russian integration with the rest of the world.

Now he says: "We are no longer looking for foreign investment."

He said he was studying how China had turned to its advantage the sanctions imposed after the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, so that it exploded onto the world with double-digit growth less than two decades later. And how Russia had made its comeback after defaulting on its debts in 1998.

Several officials insisted to us that the inner circle around Mr Putin was utterly united. But their nervous protestations suggested the opposite.

Anaemic economy
We also heard that a battle was under way over what to do about Russia's worrying economic situation.

One idea, apparently, is to open up Russia's beleaguered small business sector, to try to stimulate the economy from below.

That sounds unlikely to work, given that a recent report concluded that less than 4% of Russia's small businesses survive longer than three years, so burdened are they by bureaucracy and corruption.

Another competing plan - which sounds equally unrealistic - is apparently to seek to drive modernisation from above, through mega infrastructure projects financed by the state. They are to be carried out, Soviet-style, on a wave of national fervour and enthusiasm.

The rouble has tumbled, reflecting the impact of international sanctions and wilting foreign investment
"Russia has made its choice," Mr Putin told us, "To make the economy better we will consolidate society around patriotism and traditional values."

There are also, it seems, fierce debates at the top about whether Russia should try to repair its relations with Europe (though not with the United States), or focus instead on Asian ties to develop the Far East and Siberia.

One official hotly resisted a thesis he said was being aired in top circles that Russia was not part of Europe and could turn its back on it.

"Total gibberish," he said. "I will not let that happen. A common space from Lisbon to Vladivostok is still of benefit to all. Russia will always be part of Europe."

But perhaps what was most extraordinary was the revelation from one top reformer that he had started studying accounts of earlier Communist attempts at economic modernisation, starting with the failed Kosygin reforms of the early 1960s.

When asked why he was looking at the now defunct Soviet system, instead of more contemporary global experience, he replied that it was Russia's own past that was most useful to understand how to go forward.

Soviet echoes
It was a potent reminder of a broader trend emerging in Putin's Russia, where official doctrine seems not only to be turning inward, but to be looking backward, particularly to the Soviet era.

Alongside the drama of the Ukrainian crisis, new steps are being enacted apparently designed to make Russia a more closed society. New laws have made it more difficult for charities to receive foreign funding.

Russians with dual citizenship have had to register their foreign passports. The internet, once a relatively open space in Russia, is now increasingly subject to control and regulation.

Education syllabuses focus more on Russian history and Russian culture. Any criticism of the president could lead to charges of treason on grounds of national security.

"An attack on Putin is an attack on Russia. Without Putin, there is no Russia," one Kremlin official told us.

The remark caused a flurry when it was subsequently leaked to the Russian media, with its implication that Mr Putin is now president for life, and the current regime could extend for decades.

Mr Putin appears often on TV surrounded by the trappings of Kremlin power
One Valdai questioner tried to challenge Mr Putin on this, asking why he felt it made Russia safer to turn in on itself and become less open and democratic.

Mr Putin turned the blame instead on the Americans.

"We do not want to close the door to anyone. It's your leaders saying 'we will punish Russia' who is the problem. But they won't succeed in isolating us," he said, leaving the question unanswered.

Meanwhile, in quiet conversations at meals, a range of Russians expressed their unease about where all this might be heading. Some feared a return to the Soviet days of restrictions on foreign travel.

One or two said they were not planning to stay in Russia. Others said it would be difficult to leave, and anyway they did not want to give up on their country.

But across the board, most seemed to agree that Russia could be entering a grim, dark period.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29778823

 

[88m3]

Friday, October 31, 2014

Russia[/paste:font]
Kremlin Moves To Quash Putin Health Rumors

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is said to be in good health.




October 29, 2014

Vladimir Putin's spokesman has said that the Russian president is in good health, seeking to quash rumors of an illness.

Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow that "everything is okay" with Putin's health, Russian news agencies Interfax and TASS reported.

"They will wait in vain. May their tongues wither," Peskov said of those who claim Putin is ill.

Peskov spoke after a spate of Russian media reports referring to an October 24 column in the tabloid "New York Post" whose author, Richard Johnson, quoted unidentified sources as saying Putin had pancreatic cancer.

Putin and the Kremlin have strongly discouraged reporting about the 62-year-old president's private life.

http://www.rferl.org/content/peskov-putin-cancer-denial-media-reports-new-york-post/26664385.html

My old lady is saying European media is reporting he may have a tumor.

 

[88m3]

Friday, October 31, 2014

Russia[/paste:font]
Russian Financial Official Warns Of Threats To Reserve Fund

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October 19, 2014

Atop Russian financial official says the country's Reserve Fund could be depleted if the current "negative tendencies" affecting the economy continue in 2015.

Russian Audit Chamber head Tatiana Golikova (eds: a woman) said in an interview on Tsentr TV on October 18 that if the Reserve Fund is tapped into due to plummeting oil prices and used to repay loans because of international sanctions prevent Russian banks from foreign credit, then it will "leave a hole" in the fund within two years.

The Reserve Fund was created in 2008 and is used by the government to fill in shortfalls in the budget when Russian oil and gas sales decline.

But Golikova said the Russian government has plans to increase state revenues and will implementing "import substitution" and improve infrastructure.

She added that there are "no threats" to the 2015 budget.
http://www.rferl.org/content/russian-finance-person-warns-of-depletion/26644546.html

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

Didn't see this in major media yet. Putin upped the ante.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Putin to Western elites: Play-time is over

Most people in the English-speaking parts of the world missed Putin's speech at the Valdai conference in Sochi a few days ago, and, chances are, those of you who have heard of the speech didn't get a chance to read it, and missed its importance. (For your convenience, I am pasting in the full transcript of his speech below.) Western media did their best to ignore it or to twist its meaning. Regardless of what you think or don't think of Putin (like the sun and the moon, he does not exist for you to cultivate an opinion) this is probably the most important political speech since Churchill's “Iron Curtain” speech of March 5, 1946.

In this speech, Putin abruptly changed the rules of the game. Previously, the game of international politics was played as follows: politicians made public pronouncements, for the sake of maintaining a pleasant fiction of national sovereignty, but they were strictly for show and had nothing to do with the substance of international politics; in the meantime, they engaged in secret back-room negotiations, in which the actual deals were hammered out. Previously, Putin tried to play this game, expecting only that Russia be treated as an equal. But these hopes have been dashed, and at this conference he declared the game to be over, explicitly violating Western taboo by speaking directly to the people over the heads of elite clans and political leaders.

The Russian blogger chipstone summarized the most salient points from Putin speech as follows:

1. Russia will no longer play games and engage in back-room negotiations over trifles. But Russia is prepared for serious conversations and agreements, if these are conducive to collective security, are based on fairness and take into account the interests of each side.

2. All systems of global collective security now lie in ruins. There are no longer any international security guarantees at all. And the entity that destroyed them has a name: The United States of America.

3. The builders of the New World Order have failed, having built a sand castle. Whether or not a new world order of any sort is to be built is not just Russia's decision, but it is a decision that will not be made without Russia.

4. Russia favors a conservative approach to introducing innovations into the social order, but is not opposed to investigating and discussing such innovations, to see if introducing any of them might be justified.

5. Russia has no intention of going fishing in the murky waters created by America's ever-expanding “empire of chaos,” and has no interest in building a new empire of her own (this is unnecessary; Russia's challenges lie in developing her already vast territory). Neither is Russia willing to act as a savior of the world, as she had in the past.

6. Russia will not attempt to reformat the world in her own image, but neither will she allow anyone to reformat her in their image. Russia will not close herself off from the world, but anyone who tries to close her off from the world will be sure to reap a whirlwind.

7. Russia does not wish for the chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one. However, today Russia sees the outbreak of global war as almost inevitable, is prepared for it, and is continuing to prepare for it. Russia does not war—nor does she fear it.

8. Russia does not intend to take an active role in thwarting those who are still attempting to construct their New World Order—until their efforts start to impinge on Russia's key interests. Russia would prefer to stand by and watch them give themselves as many lumps as their poor heads can take. But those who manage to drag Russia into this process, through disregard for her interests, will be taught the true meaning of pain.

9. In her external, and, even more so, internal politics, Russia's power will rely not on the elites and their back-room dealing, but on the will of the people.

To these nine points I would like to add a tenth:

10. There is still a chance to construct a new world order that will avoid a world war. This new world order must of necessity include the United States—but can only do so on the same terms as everyone else: subject to international law and international agreements; refraining from all unilateral action; in full respect of the sovereignty of other nations.

To sum it all up: play-time is over. Children, put away your toys. Now is the time for the adults to make decisions. Russia is ready for this; is the world?

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2014/10/putin-to-western-elites-play-time-is.html

big words for a blogger

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

how desperate do you have to be to open trade with north korea?

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

note: bps = basis points or 1/100 of a point, so 200 bps = 2%, 150 bps =1.5% and so on.

Despite Surprise Rate-Hike, Russian Ruble Crashes Most In 6 Years

Yesterday's record-breaking surge in the Ruble appears, as we warned, to have been front-running today's rate-hike announcement... and despite its surprise size, it is disappointing the market. The 5%-plus swing higher in the Ruble yesterday has been notably retraced as the Russian currency plunges (biggest drop in almost 6 years) after the central bank hiked rates 150bps (expectations were broadly of a 50bps hike) but it appears the 'whisper' number was a 200bps hike and a shift in FX policy to more active intervention. The inituial rip rally instantly faded and despite low liquidity due to Russian holidays, USDRUB is back over 43 - which would be a new record low close if it holds.

Russian Central Bank disappointed...

• *RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK RAISES KEY RATE TO 9.50% (up from 8%)
• *BANK OF RUSSIA DOESN'T ANNOUNCE CHANGES TO FX POLICY
• *BANK OF RUSSIA SEES SIGNS FOR SLOWING INFLATION IN MID-TERM
• *BANK OF RUSSIA READY TO EASE IF EXTERNAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE

22 of 31 economists in Bloomberg survey forecast 50bps increase; 2 predicted move to 9%; increases of 25bps (.25%) and 75bps (.75%) forecast by 1 each; 5 economists projected no change

The reaction:

• *RUBLE EXTENDS DECLINES, WEAKENS 2.9% VS BASKET

Biggest plunge in almost 6 years





Analysts react:

• *RUSSIAN RATE RISE WON'T `SIGNIFICANTLY' SUPPORT RUBLE: NORDEA
• *RUBLE WEAKNESS IS `BEYOND SPHERE OF MONETARY POLICY': NORDEA
• *RBS: RATE RISE WON'T ELIMINATE FX SHORTAGE BEHIND RUBLE DROP

The weakness has prompted furtherremarks from the central bank:

• *BANK OF RUSSIA CONDUCTS INTERVENTIONS IN LINE WITH FX POLICY
• *BANK OF RUSSIA INTERVENES ONLY AT EDGE OF RUB FLOATING CORRIDOR
• *BANK OF RUSSIA: TIGHTENING HASN'T YET OFFSET IMPACT OF WEAK RUB