Analysis: Here's Why I Think Kamala Harris Will Win (Not Based On Current Polls)

[Black Panther]

1-11 are not opinions; they're facts based on previous elections.

#12 is a question that we don't have a clear answer to, but has to be taken in context of 1-11.

1. Did Trump build a voting coalition** large enough to win the presidency in 2016? Yes (by a small margin.)

2. Did Trump either maintain or grow his voting coalition in 2018? No and no.

3. Did Trump's voting coalition shrink in 2018***? Yes (by a small margin.)

4. Did Trump build a voting coalition large enough to win the presidency in 2020? NO.

5. Did Trump either maintain or grow his voting coalition in 2022? NO and NO.

6. Did Trump's voting coalition shrink in 2022? YES.

7. Did Democrats either maintain or grow their voting coalition in 2018? Yes and yes.

8. Did Democrats' voting coalition shrink in 2018? No.

9. Did Biden/Harris build a voting coalition large enough to win the presidency in 2020? Yes (by a small margin.)

10. Did Biden/Harris either maintain or grow their voting coalition in 2022? YES and YES.

11. Did Biden/Harris' voting coalition shrink in 2022? NO.

12. Last question: do you think Trump's voting coalition has grown significantly since 2022?

**-Voting coalition = people who were convinced to vote for a candidate, and actually did so.
***-Referring to mid-term election results.

In my opinion, taking questions 1-11 into consideration, I think Harris has it. Trump has only won one election, and even then it was by a slim margin.

This race won't be a landslide for Harris, but I don't think it will be close.

 

[boogers]

hope youre right.

i try not to dwell on it too much. itll make you go nuts.

i am trying to be positive. i look forward to voting in nichols as our first black mayor as well. i think hes got the votes

they've been running ads locally attacking our "liberal" state supreme court judges trying to get them kicked out

 

[Neuromancer]

I'm pretty sure she will.

 

[Black Panther]

i am trying to be positive. i look forward to voting in nichols as our first black mayor as well. i think hes got the votes

Justice.


Though Tulsa is conservative as fukk, so I'm pretty sure millions will be spent to hamstring his tenure if he wins.

My ex-wife moved there after we split (Broken Arrow, more specifically) so I'm not too favorable about Tulsa.

 

[Mowgli]

These cacs gonna get in the booth and switch up bro.

 

[Black Panther]

These cacs gonna get in the booth and switch up bro.

The same was said in 2020.

Trump was defeated before.

He will be defeated again.

 

[Uachet]

The same was said in 2020.

Trump was defeated before.

He will be defeated again.

You are forgetting one particular detail that is different. In 2020, it was 2 White men running against each other. In 2024 it is a White man vs a Non-White woman.

So we have no clue how this will fully play out among the White voting population until it is all done.

 

[Black Panther]

You are forgetting one particular detail that is different. In 2020, it was 2 White men running against each other. In 2024 it is a White man vs a Non-White woman.

So we have no clue how this will fully play out among the White voting population until it is all done.

Obama already broke that glass ceiling.

Racism and sexism will play a part in how people vote, no doubt. I'm definitely not saying White people have come that far. But people tend to overlook how deeply unfavorable Trump is.

Most of his voters will be White, but that doesn't mean most Whites will vote for him.

 

[Uachet]

Obama already broke that glass ceiling.

Racism and sexism will play a part in how people vote, no doubt. I'm definitely not saying White people have come that far. But people tend to overlook how deeply unfavorable Trump is.

Most of his voters will be White, but that doesn't mean most Whites will vote for him.

He was a Half-White man. If Hillary had won, she would have broke the female as President ceiling. Still, 53% of White women voted against her. So no, that ceiling has not been broken yet, until it is possibly broken by Kamala.

 

[Black Panther]

He was a Half-White man.

Let's not pretend we don't understand how race works in this country.

If you're half-Black...you're Black.

Of course we understand that he's biracial (like Harris). But I'd feel confident saying 0% of voters in 2008-2012 voted for Obama because he was half-White.

If Hillary had won, she would have broke the female as President ceiling. Still, 53% of White women voted against her. So no, that ceiling has not been broken yet, until it is possibly broken by Kamala.

I am confident Harris will break that barrier too.

 

[TAYLONDO SAMSWORTHY]

Kamala by a landslide

Nostradamus pollster Allan Lichtman stands by his predictions, says Kamala Harris will win U.S elections

Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the "Nostradamus of polling," stands firm in his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, despite tightening polls showing stiff competition with Donald Trump.

m.economictimes.com

 

[Black Panther]

Kamala by a landslide

Nostradamus pollster Allan Lichtman stands by his predictions, says Kamala Harris will win U.S elections

Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the "Nostradamus of polling," stands firm in his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, despite tightening polls showing stiff competition with Donald Trump.

m.economictimes.com

I can't stand dude. I agree with him, but watching his interviews is like watching someone jack off for 10 minutes.

 

[BaggerofTea]

domestic mega corps are in bed with trump, but majority of the civilian population is sick and tired of him.

There is a lot of noise, but I am not sure its based in reality

 

[TAYLONDO SAMSWORTHY]

I can't stand dude. I agree with him, but watching his interviews is like watching someone jack off for 10 minutes.

Niggggaaaaaaaaa.


I never watched one of his interviews but he’s cleeeearly

 

[DoubleClutch]

Even IF Kamala wins I doubt she’ll become president