Africa must forgo gas exploration to avert climate disaster, warn experts

[Professor Emeritus]

@Rhakim not gonna quote so as to not clog up this page, respectfully.

Should you let people know about lung damage et al from pollution, sure. But with the caveat that gov’t policy should advocate for economic development coupled with some environmental protections. Right now we Africans are getting neither.

Agreed. Nothing I've said has been against those principles.

It was your reality for longer than most posters but you could come back so it is kinda moot imo. You had a US passport, you had a get out of jail card. Those African citizens don’t have that luxury so the mental outlook is different.

Completely agreed. But it's not Africans in Africa I'm disagreeing with, I posted in SUPPORT of the Africans who were quoted in this thread. The only person who I'm disagreeing with is you.

And I said what I said, anyone, African or non African that isn’t talking mass industrialization for Africa is cappin and should not be listened to. And renewables aren’t gonna enable that mass industrialization.

Fukk all that other noise, respectfully.

You're violating your own principles here. How can you claim that you have the right to claim what position is the right one when you don't even meet your own qualifications for speaking on this issue? I'm gonna listen to the three Africans I quoted long before I listen to you.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

Omar Elmawi, a coordinator at the StopEACOP campaign in east Africa, said: “Decades after exploiting fossil fuels in Africa, we have yet to improve energy poverty and countries have continued to drown themselves in unsustainable loans taken because of the promise of fossil fuel revenues.

“Corporations registered in the global north have continued to benefit from these dirty fossil fuels in Africa and all we are left with are the impacts on our people, nature and the climate.”

Even with oil revenues, those countries (whichever they are) still had to take out unsustainable loans? How is that going to be better with renewables? You have to buy the equipment, materials, and parts (for repair). And it will be Africa spending money on getting these things from the global North.

I agree with Mary Robinson on this one. With the caveat, that many of these countries have to be far more competent than they have been. But then again, switching from oil to renewables won't mitigate the incompetence or corruption.

 

[Geek Nasty]

Disgusting article. Seeping with privilege

 

[Secure Da Bag]

Last week, Mary Robinson, a former president of Ireland, UN commissioner for human rights and UN climate envoy, stoked controversy when she backed an expansion, saying African countries should exploit their gas reserves.

She said the gas should be used within the continent for clean cooking and power generation for the 600 million people who lacked access to power and the 900 million who were cooking on biomass or dirty oil, rather than exported for profit.

Mohamed Adow, the director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank and 2020 winner of the Climate Breakthrough prize, said Robinson was wrong.

“For Africans to achieve the lives of dignity that energy access should bring, we cannot rely on the failed system of the last 200 years. We must leapfrog our thinking and make the investment into distributed renewable energy systems that won’t poison our rivers, pollute our air, choke our lungs and profit only a few,” he told the Guardian.

I'm definitely with Robinson after reading that. Investment into renewable energy systems without profiting for only a few. Does Adow have a plan for that?

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Even with oil revenues, those countries (whichever they are) still had to take out unsustainable loans? How is that going to be better with renewables? You have to buy the equipment, materials, and parts (for repair). And it will be Africa spending money on getting these things from the global North.

I agree with Mary Robinson on this one. With the caveat, that many of these countries have to be far more competent than they have been. But then again, switching from oil to renewables won't mitigate the incompetence or corruption.

Because the "even with oil revenues" doesn't mean you're going to get development. It makes corporations rich and it makes their government benefactors rich but it doesn't help the people at large. Take Nigeria for example, by far the most profitable oil state in Africa - if anything, discovering oil in Nigeria actually retarded their development in the regions where oil is being pumped, their manufacturing sector in the 1950s was stronger before oil became part of their national economy. Oil brought conflict and corruption. The oil industry is completely different than any sustainable manufacturing sector or development-based energy like renewables because it's a high-profit, low-employment raw commodity that can easily line the pockets of whoever controls it while doing little else for the surrounding region. And that's why terror groups operate so easily in oil states - all they have to do is capture a drilling location or even just a truck and it becomes elementary to sell off the oil themselves and use the profits to fund their violence....which, in some cases, is all the government was doing with it anyway.

The same can't be said for renewable energy. A government official (or terrorist group) can't live off of a renewables sector unless they're actually producing something out of it. You can't just steal the electricity or sell it off to a corporation and run away, you actually have to get that electricity into the grid and then make some productive use out of it if you want to maintain your profits and power. That's not like a raw commodity - that's automatically providing real jobs, automatically spurring real infrastructure. A government official who dumps a bunch of money into a renewables project and then fails to produce anything hasn't gained any power, he's just angered his people. The entire history of the 2nd half of the 20th century through today is a history of failed oil states (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Libya, Angola...you can even add Venezuela and Mexico) whose massive oil revenues have not brought rights and development to their people and instead have become the epicenter of war over and over again. If you keep just believing the industry propaganda about this shyt, and don't take the actual social and political history into account, you'll keep making the same mistake that's done been made.


And besides the ease with which oil lends itself to corruption, besides all the pollution that's killing our poor more than any other single factor on Earth, besides all the environmental destruction from climate change that's become the #1 existential crisis on the planet, besides the environmental and social devastation of oil spills, besides all the funding of wars and terror without end, of course there's also this constant drumbeat of oil truck disasters that we haven't talked about yet.

Death toll from Tanzania fuel tanker explosion rises to 82

The death toll from a fuel tanker that overturned and exploded on Saturday on a highway 200 kilometres west of the biggest city, Dar es Salaam, has risen to 82, hospital authorities said Wednesday.

www.rfi.fr

Over 95 killed by tanker explosion in Rivers State

Scores of people are feared to have died after a tanker exploded in Okogbe town in Ahoada East Local Government Area of Rivers State this morning.

www.channelstv.com

Dozens feared dead in Nigeria as leaking oil tanker explodes

LAGOS, Nigeria: An overturned oil tanker exploded in Nigeria while dozens of people were scooping up the leaking fuel and many were killed, police and witnesses said Saturday. Hundreds of people have died in similar accidents in recent years in Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, as...

www.arabnews.com

Fuel tanker blast in Sierra Leone capital kills 115

Local authorities previously said 99 people had died when the tanker exploded following a collision in the eastern Freetown suburb of Wellington.

www.jpost.com

Tanzania mourns 64 killed in fuel tanker explosion

Many were trying to recover fuel from an overturned tanker when it exploded and killed 64 people.

www.bbc.com

Kenyan fuel tanker explodes killing at least 13

People rushed to the scene of the crash to siphon petrol when the explosion occurred.

www.bbc.com

Oil tanker explosion kills 55 in Niger’s capital

- Explosion took place when people were trying to scoop fuel from overturned tanker in Niamey - Anadolu Agency

www.aa.com.tr

Congo in mourning as oil tanker explosion leaves 250 dead, over 100 injured. - Free Online Library

Free Online Library: Congo in mourning as oil tanker explosion leaves 250 dead, over 100 injured. by "International Business Times - US ed."; Business, international News, opinion and commentary Explosions Casualties

www.thefreelibrary.com

50 die, 100 burnt in tanker explosion in DR Congo - Punch Newspapers

punchng.com

73 killed in fuel tanker explosion in Mozambique, according to reports

A fuel tanker exploded in northern Mozambique as residents gathered around to buy fuel from the driver on Thursday, killing 73 people and injuring 110 others, Mozambican media reported.

www.latimes.com

Death Toll Tops 200 in South Sudan Fuel Tanker Explosion

Officials say the death toll in the fuel tanker disaster near Maridi, in Western Equatoria state, has topped 200.

www.voaafrica.com

69 burnt to death in Onitsha petrol tanker accident

No fewer than 69 persons burnt to death Sunday evening when a trailer loaded with Premium Motor Spirit otherwise known as petrol that was descending from Army barracks side of Onitsha Enugu express way lost control and rammed into the Asaba Motor Park at Upper Iwekas Onitsha and exploded.

www.vanguardngr.com

70 die in fuel tanker explosion in Anambra

A blog that aggregates Nigerian related news.

www.naijafeed.com

More than 100 dead after Kenyan oil spill blaze

Scores of people are dead or missing in Kenya’s Rift Valley after an overturned petrol tanker caught fire and exploded.

www.independent.co.uk

In the fact of all these obvious, horrific problems of developing with oil, there's this constant claim of "it's the only way!" just because it's the old way. Looking backwards doesn't work. It's like insisting on landlines when mobiles were new - you're creating the outdated infrastructure of the past instead of adopting that which will move the people forward. If oil for development was such a slam dunk, it already would have been done decades ago. Instead we have corruption, terror, environmental devastation....and we still don't have development.

 

[phcitywarrior]

Even with oil revenues, those countries (whichever they are) still had to take out unsustainable loans? How is that going to be better with renewables? You have to buy the equipment, materials, and parts (for repair). And it will be Africa spending money on getting these things from the global North.

I agree with Mary Robinson on this one. With the caveat, that many of these countries have to be far more competent than they have been. But then again, switching from oil to renewables won't mitigate the incompetence or corruption.

Just an FYI, the article is talking about gas exploration, not oil. Although the two are intertwined, oil =/= gas.

Regardless, I still champion the development of the industry. But with up to date safety standards. And I’ll stand on that point firmly.

Norway is one of the largest producers of oil but they don’t have many oil related injuries so there is a way. The post about tanker explosions are only part of it. When you have bad roads and are transporting a high flammable liquid, there’s a risk of things going haywire. In the US, trucks move gas across the country every single day.

The issue is not oil or gas in of itself. It is the government, plain and simple.

I can speak about Nigeria till I’m blue in the face but it all comes down to governance plain and simple.

To me, If warming the entire globe meant giving Africans a decent standard of living then the whole world is gonna need to invest in heavy duty air conditioning.

 

[DEAD7]

To me, If warming the entire globe meant giving Africans a decent standard of living then the whole world is gonna need to invest in heavy duty air conditioning.

 

[88m3]

@phcitywarrior do you support fracking?

 

[phcitywarrior]

@phcitywarrior do you support fracking?

I honestly don’t know enough about it from a politically neutral angle to support/not support.

 

[hashmander]

Just an FYI, the article is talking about gas exploration, not oil. Although the two are intertwined, oil =/= gas.

Regardless, I still champion the development of the industry. But with up to date safety standards. And I’ll stand on that point firmly.

Norway is one of the largest producers of oil but they don’t have many oil related injuries so there is a way. The post about tanker explosions are only part of it. When you have bad roads and are transporting a high flammable liquid, there’s a risk of things going haywire. In the US, trucks move gas across the country every single day.

The issue is not oil or gas in of itself. It is the government, plain and simple.

I can speak about Nigeria till I’m blue in the face but it all comes down to governance plain and simple.

To me, If warming the entire globe meant giving Africans a decent standard of living then the whole world is gonna need to invest in heavy duty air conditioning.

You know what, I agree with that, but we know that's not happening. It's not like African countries haven't been producing fossil fuels for decades now. You talk about Norway's safety standards ... I talked about them earlier for the sovereign wealth fund. Norway has a good leadership class that actually gives a shyt about THEIR people. What fossil fuel producing African country has produced a leadership class that gives one shyt about their people? The people just end up getting fukked over.

 

[phcitywarrior]

You know what, I agree with that, but we know that's not happening. It's not like African countries haven't been producing fossil fuels for decades now. You talk about Norway's safety standards ... I talked about them earlier for the sovereign wealth fund. Norway has a good leadership class that actually gives a shyt about THEIR people. What fossil fuel producing African country has produced a leadership class that gives one shyt about their people? The people just end up getting fukked over.

I agree with you And that is why all along I’ve been saying governance is the issue, not fossil fuels.

And by the way, Nigeria does have a sovereign wealth fund as well.

Nigeria’s Sovereign Wealth Fund - NSIA

NSIA is an independent investment institution, set up to manage Nigeria’s Sovereign Wealth Fund in excess of budgeted hydrocarbon revenues.

nsia.com.ng

The fund is currently working on/helping finance critical infrastructure projects. My only argument is the fund needs more capital given Nigeria’s size but that’s a different convo for another day.

 

[MischievousMonkey]

The issue is not oil or gas in of itself. It is the government, plain and simple.

I agree that governance is the main culprit. Shouldn't it follow then that poorly governed countries should put gas/oil exploitation to the side?

If we take the bad governance as a constant and compare both scenarii, you got:

• Oil/gas exploitation: the product is exported and the money doesn't benefit the people in any way, no development or mass industrialization and adverse cumulative environmental effects for African populations
• Renewable energy (or simply no oil/gas exploitation): not enough to power mass industrialization (which wouldn't happen anyway since the governance is bad), no development, less impact from adverse cumulative environmental effects for African populations

Supposing bad governance will remain as such for the coming years, then exploiting gas/oil definitely leads to the worst outcome. It seems we agree on that.

Do you realistically see Nigeria massively industrialize all of a sudden in the next decades using oil/gas?

 

[Professor Emeritus]

To me, If warming the entire globe meant giving Africans a decent standard of living then the whole world is gonna need to invest in heavy duty air conditioning.

Global warming: severe consequences for Africa

Record global greenhouse gas emissions are putting the world on a path toward unacceptable warming, with serious implications for development prospects in Africa. “Limiting warming to 1.5° C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics, but doing so would require unprecedented changes,”...

www.un.org

Warming the entire globe means large portions of Africa become fukking uninhabitable.


Breh this sounds like you're not taking the conversation seriously at all. Africa is situated right on the fukking equator, the effects of climate change are going to be WORSE in Africa than anywhere else. "Warming the entire globe" is going to have the MOST negative impact on African lives, especially if the shyt is being burned right in Africa which means the pollution effects most direct impact africans as well.

* Less survivable peak temperatures
* More desertification
* Large-scale displacement of populations
* Massive reduction in crop yields
* Increased major wildfires
* Port cities fukked over due to sea level rise

How would imaginary fossil fuel-driven development combat that, even if it happened? How can you increase the standard of living of your population if it's too hot to live, you can't even feed your people, and you're losing land to desert and fire on one side and a rising ocean on the other?

Oh, and air conditioning makes the city even hotter, so your tongue-in-cheek "solution" actually makes shyt even worse.

Whoops: Air Conditioning Is Making Cities Hotter, Not Colder

At night, waste heat generated by a city’s worth of air conditioners can raise the outside temperature by 1 degree Celsius. Better turn on the AC!

www.fastcompany.com

Unsuitable for 'human life to flourish': Up to 3B will live in extreme heat by 2070, study warns

By 2070, up to 3 billion people are likely to live in climate conditions that are \

www.usatoday.com

"Without climate mitigation or migration, by 2070 a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to average annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today, the study said. These brutally hot climate conditions are currently experienced by just 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the hottest parts of the Sahara Desert, but by 2070 the conditions could spread to 19% of the Earth’s land area.

This includes large portions of northern Africa, the Middle East, northern South America, South Asia, and parts of Australia.

"Large areas of the planet would heat to barely survivable levels and they wouldn’t cool down again," said study co-author Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands. "Not only would this have devastating direct effects, it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics. The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.”"

Climate change could start forcing millions of Africans out of their homes within the next 9 years, World Bank report warns

By 2050, the number of climate migrants in West Africa and the Lake Victoria Basin could reach 86 million.

www.cbsnews.com

"As global warming continues to worsen, the effects of climate change will force people worldwide to migrate to new areas to survive. Africa is expected to be among the hardest hit by climate change, and if actions aren't taken quickly, by 2050 the situation will be so dire that up to 86 million people will have to leave their homes, a new World Bank report found."

Displaced by the Desert: An expanding Sahara leaves Broken Families and Violence in its Wake - Mali

English News and Press Release on Mali and 3 other countries about Agriculture, Climate Change and Environment and more; published on 18 Oct 2019 by IPS

reliefweb.int

"The U.N. says nearly 98 percent of Mali is threatened with creeping desertification, as a result of nature and human activity. Besides, the Sahara Desert keeps expanding southward at a rate of 48 km a year, further degrading the land and eradicating the already scarce livelihoods of populations, Reuters reported.

The Sahara, an area of 3.5 million square miles, is the largest ‘hot’ desert in the world and home to some 70 species of mammals, 90 species of resident birds and 100 species of reptiles, according to DesertUSA. And it is expanding, its size is registered at 10 percent larger than a century ago, LiveScience reported."

Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models - Scientific Reports

Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of the crop yield of the main staple food crops in...

www.nature.com

"We found that the last simulated decade, 2000–2009, is approximately 1 °C warmer in West Africa in the ensemble accounting for human influences on climate, with more frequent heat and rainfall extremes. These altered climate conditions have led to regional average yield reductions of 10–20% for millet and 5–15% for sorghum."

Wildfires Will Rise by 50% by End of Century, Experts Warn

Recent study says more than 30,000 people have died due to exposure to wildfire smoke

www.voanews.com

"A report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) says climate change will fuel an increase in wildfires in coming decades. The report warns that if preventive measures are not taken, the fires will damage environments, human health, and economies.

The report, released Wednesday ahead of the 5th session of the United Nations Environment Assembly to be held in Nairobi next week, says climate change and how people use land are expected to increase wildfires globally by 50 percent by 2100."

Sea Level Rise May Erode Development in Africa - Eos

The continent is enduring some of the highest global sea level rise. A new report identifies the western coast as particularly vulnerable to coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion.

eos.org

"Sea level rise and extreme weather associated with climate change are threats to human health, safety, food and water security, and socioeconomic development in Africa, climate change experts said in a new report.

“Climate change is having a growing impact on the African continent, hitting the most vulnerable hardest, and contributing to food insecurity, population displacement and stress on water resources. In recent months, we have seen devastating floods, an invasion of desert locusts and now face the looming specter of drought because of a La Niña events,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), when introducing the 2019–2020 “State of the Climate in Africa.”

 

[phcitywarrior]

I agree that governance is the main culprit. Shouldn't it follow then that poorly governed countries should put gas/oil exploitation to the side?

If we take the bad governance as a constant and compare both scenarii, you got:

• Oil/gas exploitation: the product is exported and the money doesn't benefit the people in any way, no development or mass industrialization and adverse cumulative environmental effects for African populations
• Renewable energy (or simply no oil/gas exploitation): not enough to power mass industrialization (which wouldn't happen anyway since the governance is bad), no development, less impact from adverse cumulative environmental effects for African populations

Supposing bad governance will remain as such for the coming years, then exploiting gas/oil definitely leads to the worst outcome. It seems we agree on that.

Do you realistically see Nigeria massively industrialize all of a sudden in the next decades using oil/gas?

Global warming: severe consequences for Africa

Record global greenhouse gas emissions are putting the world on a path toward unacceptable warming, with serious implications for development prospects in Africa. “Limiting warming to 1.5° C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics, but doing so would require unprecedented changes,”...

www.un.org

Warming the entire globe means large portions of Africa become fukking uninhabitable....

Gentlemen, it's been an interesting discussion thus far. Glad this topic was brought up. This is my last comment on the issue, and I hope this illuminates my thinking on the gravity of the situation at hand....

The collapse of mankind's ecosystem as a result of climate change / global warming is imminent. It is coming, no two ways about it. And I have no confidence that mankind will be able to stop it for the simple fact that the human condition/nature is interested in self before the collective.

Stopping the climate catastrophe and its knock-on effect (desertification, loss of agricultural land, etc) will require not just a drop in CO2 emissions, but a radical reduction in consumption that is at odds with the current social and economic systems that underpin the fabric of Western society. At best, we utilize new technology to mitigate some issues e.g. growing food vertical towers so as to better utilize space etc. But one thing remains clear, the nations that will better manage the climate fallout are those with the resources to weather the storm, figuratively and literally.

The issue is binary. You either support:

a. Africa using whatever resources within its possession to industrialize as quickly as possible and in doing so, provide its citizens a semblance of a good standard of living. If it means Oil or LNG, then so be it.

Or

b. All that other noise.

I stand firmly on A. Anyone claiming they want the best for Africa and its citizens but isn't advocating for A is chatting horse shyt plain and simple. The notion that Africa should forego its chance for economic development for the "betterment" of the rest of the world is a laughable idea. If the world is on a oneway ticket to epic destruction, then if we can get Africans from coach to economy plus with a little extra leg room, then it'll all have been worth it.

Great discussion fellas

 

[Gritsngravy]

African countries refining and producing gas isnt necessarily going to cause climate disaster, if I was in they position I going to take advantage of every resource I have to raise the standard of living for my people, they potential can be getting money like them saudis