Hill-Davis said most are avoiding the
Dobbs decision as much as possible for two reasons. For one thing, Republicans know that overturning
Roe “took away something that they used to gin up the base”. For another, banning abortion is not popular “with key demographics that the party needs to make inroads with in order to remain competitive in general elections.” Even Trump has admitted that the
Roe reversal “probably cost us politically.”
Five states in 2022 passed legislation that amounted to protecting the right to abortion. Most notably, voters in Kansas — a state that twice voted for Trump — rejected a ballot measure in August 2022 that would have banned abortion. The Kansas vote, Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said, “should be a big red warning sign for Republicans, especially in swing districts…that this isn’t something that they should be campaigning on.”
Perhaps Rep. Balderson’s website omission was a response to his state’s voters. Ohioans voted in November 2023 to
enshrine a right to reproductive freedom in the state.
These deletions may have also been tied to calls from Republican operatives to change the party’s messaging on the issue. In November 2023,
NBC News reported that the National Republican Senatorial Committee was urging the GOP to reject a national abortion ban and to only back restrictions on late-term abortions instead.
Some Republicans responded by proposing a 10- or 15-week ban plus exceptions, rather than a full ban on the medical procedure. But this also appears to be a losing argument with voters.
Virginia Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, for example, advocated for a 15-week abortion ban ahead of the November 2023 election. He attempted to portray this as a sensible compromise with liberals.
But that idea didn’t work.
Republicans lost control of the legislature, essentially forcing the governor to toss his plan.
Youngkin isn’t the only one now looking for points of agreement with Democrats on reproductive rights. South Carolina Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace has called for the need to find “middle ground” with Democrats on the issue, calling a 15-to-20-week abortion ban with exceptions the “sweet spot.”
Hill-Davis explained that this approach might appeal to some voters because “you suddenly start sounding reasonable,” but in reality, most people don’t know exactly what an ambiguous week marker means and how it would affect a pregnancy.
Enacting a ban on a random week of gestation to make your policy sound more digestible can have deleterious effects on families — as seen in the case of
Kate Cox. The Dallas woman discovered at 20 weeks that she was carrying a fetus with a fatal condition. After a legal back-and-forth, Cox was ultimately forced to seek out-of-state care after she was denied an emergency abortion in Texas.
Christina Reynolds, senior vice president of communications at Democratic political action committee Emily’s List, said that while Republicans’ “comments are wishy-washy, their agenda isn’t.” That agenda, she said, “is incredibly unpopular with voters.” Reynolds added that Republicans need to “fundamentally change” their abortion stance because “voters understand who got us here, and they understand who is actively trying to take us further” in the anti-abortion direction.
A lack of consensus across the party will inherently prevent Republicans from being able to avoid being questioned over the issue, Ziegler — the law professor — said. Their stance is not obviously clear from their party status. “As some Republicans are trying to de-emphasize their positions on abortion, others are playing up their positions even more in passing even more sweeping bans, because that makes sense for them politically,” she added — like in the Kate Cox case.
Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz has still not broken his silence over the issue; meanwhile, Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins openly called the
Dobbs decision “terrible.”
Perhaps this fraying in the party is due to the lack of a blueprint provided by Trump. His own position is completely unclear: He has bragged about the
Roe reversal and the part he took in allowing it to happen; slammed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on his state’s harsh six-week abortion ban; and has publicly admitted that he doesn’t “frankly care” whether abortion bans should be decided on the state or federal level.
If Trump is the “presumed head of the party” and has a wishy-washy abortion stance, it leaves Republicans “guessing as to where they should be benchmarking their position,” Hill-Davis said. So they will likely avoid making a “committed stance” rather than risk misaligning with him in the near future.
The GOP’s lack of consistency on the issue runs up against the Democrats’ united pro-choice front, and could prove an electoral Achilles’ heel. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been campaigning on restoring reproductive rights at numerous events. At a rally in January 2024, Harris touched upon the ripple effects that the
Dobbs decision had set into motion, calling
Roe “a fundamental right” that had been “ripped away.”
Hill-Davis said that reproductive rights as a ballot issue is unlikely to prompt voters to switch parties, but it could attract new voters worried about the erosion of personal freedoms to the Democrats.
Reynolds agreed, especially when it comes to younger demographics: “Younger voters are less concerned with partisan partisanship and more concerned with specific issues. This is one that matters to them.”[/SIZE][/SIZE]