Over the previous five years, the time between the Warriors’ final game of the season and the NBA Draft was an average of 6.8 days. The most days they’ve had was 13, the fewest was four. This year, the draft comes 253 days after their last game.
They should be ready. Not just for tonight’s draft, but the ensuing offseason. In addition to three draft picks, the Warriors have a $17.2 million traded player exception (TPE) — which represents their best chance to add immediate help — set to expire on Nov. 23, the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception (TPMLE) and however many veteran-minimum contracts they want. Yes, the Warriors are no longer bound by the hard cap, so, technically, they can keep adding.
But after eight months, what’s a good outcome? With all the prep, speculation, analysis and discussion, what is the bounty they could walk away with that makes for a great offseason? I’ve got a blueprint for them, the five-step plan for the ideal-yet-realistic offseason.
I know. I know. What would they do without me?
Step 1: Draft James Wiseman
This is hardly out on a limb at this point. But the Memphis center just makes the most sense. He gives them legitimate size, he helps them with their athleticism shortcomings and he has some skills to build upon — including nice touch on his left-handed jumper. Wiseman is definitely a player they could use now and eventually he could slot into a role as a core player. If he does just that, he’s worth it. If he becomes more than that, such as a franchise player around which they can build, then that’s even more fortuitous.
What’s unique about the Warriors in this year’s draft is that the player they draft might end up not looking as great as some players taken later. The opportunities — minutes, shots and freedom in the offense — just won’t be there with the Warriors right away. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are going to dominate the opportunities. While not on that level, the same can be said for Andrew Wiggins, whom the Warriors are high on as the third-scorer, fourth-in-line figure. Barring injury, they won’t be leaving too much meat on the bone. Whoever comes in will have to embrace that — especially if it’s a perimeter player. The offensive pecking order might be even harder to crack factoring in some incumbents, such as Eric Paschall, and depending on the other players they add.
The one position where there is room for a bigger role is center. Wiseman would have to beat out Marquese Chriss, but there is a path to him starting and playing a lot. There aren’t many other players in the draft who have a path to come in and be an immediate key factor for this team.
While the Warriors may not make decisions based on the hype and criticism, we know players pay attention to this stuff. So the question becomes: Which players can handle a lesser role than their talent might command?
Georgia guard Anthony Edwards, if drafted by the Warriors, would be behind Thompson for the foreseeable future and would have to figure out how to contribute without 20 shots a game. Sure, Thompson might need some pacing on his way back from his ACL tear, having not played since June 2019. But the likelihood is he will continue to be a minutes-eater. Point guard LaMelo Ball, if selected by the Warriors, would be starting his career behind Curry. While he has the size and skill to fill multiple roles, Ball would still be a role player with star talent. He could possibly eat into Wiggins’ minutes as the third perimeter player, so that’s more opportunity for action. Still, not enough for a guy who many believe is the most talented player in the draft.
For either Edwards or Ball, you have to wonder how they will take being in a sense limited by the Warriors’ system and setup while France’s Killion Hayes or other lower-tier prospects are lightning it up as rookies in larger roles on other teams. That’s less of a concern with Wiseman. If he can play now, there will be little limits.
He just makes the most sense for the Warriors.
Step 2: Package the two second-round picks to move up
Here is the assumption: The Warriors don’t actually want three players from this draft. That would mean three salaries and three luxury-tax penalties to pay. We know they are already are likely to add three players who won’t be cheap: the No. 2 pick, whomever they get with the TPE and whomever they sign with the mid-level. So the price tag is getting high. Plus, they have three or four young players they like already.
So, moving up and turning two picks into one saves some salary, albeit not an incredible amount. It also gets them closer to a player who can actually contribute. But for what player?
The player I have in mind: Duke point guard Tre Jones.
He could end up as a high second-round pick. He could also go late in the first. Jones could even sneak to the back end of the lottery. In a draft full of point guards, it could go a lot of ways. But if the Warriors could get him, Jones would be an upgrade to a critical position: Curry’s backup.
It’s an important slot, as Steve Kerr likes to keep his star under 36 minutes per game. Curry hasn’t averaged more than 34.2 minutes per game in a season since Kerr took over. How long Curry sits is a function of who runs the show when Curry takes his seat and how comfortable Kerr is with that option. The thought of that guy being Jones is intriguing. He’s 6-foot-3, 185 pounds — bigger than his brother Tyus — and he’s the reigning ACC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. He’s a really good defender and a high-IQ player who is a sneakily good athlete and he improved his 3-point shooting from 26.2 percent his freshman year at Duke to 36.1 percent last season.
The top-four point guards in the draft are pretty clear at this point, as least as far as who will come off the board first: Ball, Hayes, Iowa State’s Tyrese Haliburton and Alabama’s Kira Lewis Jr. You can throw in Kentucky’s Tyrese Maxey, a combo guard who is high on most boards. RJ Hampton is more of a stretch as a point guard, but he will be up there in the first round.
The next crop is a cluster where, depending on which mock you trust and analysis you buy, a number of point guards are in the mix: North Carolina’s Cole Anthony, France’s Theo Maledon, Stanford’s Tyrell Terry and, of course, Jones.
There is another tier after this one, I’d say, that includes the likes of Kansas’ Devon Dotson and Arizona’s Nico Mannion. But if there is a run of wings that go early — which is likely, since the position is so coveted — the point guards after Ball could get pushed down. And if other teams aren’t judging Jones near the top of the position, he could be there for the Warriors if they move up from their current spots at Nos. 48 and 51.
This is a point-guard heavy draft and the Warriors could be in range for a few players. Terry, because of his shooting, could be even a better get, based on value, because he seems to be higher on most boards. If Maledon falls, the Warriors could land a more physically gifted option. The question is who falls and how could much the Warriors are able to move up by combining their two second-round picks. To be sure, they could wait and get somebody at 48. Maybe Mannion or Marquette’s Markus Howard will be there.
But for my money, if you walk away with a player who produced in college, who is defensive-minded with a nice scoring ability and who could be a relative steal early in the second round, that’s a good move.
Step 3: Acquire Kelly Oubre Jr., who fits into the TPE
The Warriors still need wings. Oubre might be the best one they can get, and he fits the Warriors well.
He’s 6-7 with a 7-3 wingspan. He’s athletic, aggressive and kind of nuts — in a good way, when he’s on your team. He’s also only turning 25 next month, with five NBA seasons already under his belt. He’s been a reserve. He’s been a starter. He shot a career-best 35.2 percent from 3 last season, which suggests he could be even better with better looks next to Curry and Thompson.
Oubre is a guy you can assign to defend the opponent’s best wing player and he’s going to accept the challenge. That would give the Warriors four guys to throw at the elite wings in the league: Thompson, Wiggins, Oubre and Green.
How can they get him? Oubre was just shipped to Oklahoma City in the Chris Paul deal. Oubre is in the final season of his deal and counts $14.4 million on the books. He fits nicely into the Warriors’ TPE, without using it all (remember this fact), if the Thunder want to cut salary after acquiring a bunch of players. Knowing Thunder general manager Sam Presti, he’ll do it if he can get a draft pick to add to his collection. I’d guess Oubre would rather play for a playoff team looking to challenge in the Western Conference over rebuilding with Oklahoma City. Just a hunch.
Imagine the defensive frontcourt the Warriors could throw out there: Green, Oubre and Wiseman.
Step 4: Sign Austin Rivers with TPMLE
I promise you, I want to write CONVINCE SERGE IBAKA TO TAKE A PAY CUT. But I promised to be realistic. That rules out the Nets’ Joe Harris passing up money to come shoot with the Splash brothers. So it’s Rivers, who raised his 3-point shooting to 35.6 percent last season.
Admittedly, if I’m the Warriors, I’m not swooning over Rivers. He’s a good defender and he can shoot. But he plays a lot of isolation ball and can chuck some bad shots. If he’s a centerpiece on the Warriors’ second unit, I’m not quite sure how he’ll mesh with the ball-movement, work-off-the-high-post offense the Warriors like when Curry is out. I can see Rivers as a true backup to Thompson, who seems to never have one. Rivers is ideal for that role of ending the first and third quarters next to Curry, which Kerr has done with nearly every solid backup guard, from Leandro Barbosa to Shaun Livingston to Quinn Cook.
They’re not going to get much better than Rivers, realistically, for this money. And they may not have to use all of the TPMLE on him. It’s not crazy to think a player or two would pass on more money to play for a season with the Warriors — looking at you Marc Gasol and Danilo Gallinari — but realism is the benchmark for this exercise.
Step 5: Bring back Glenn Robinson III
Remember, in this proposal, the Warriors haven’t spent all of that TPMLE yet and only ended up with two players out of their three draft picks, so they’ve got a veteran’s minimum contract to spare. And you can never have enough wings.
) We could possibly have WCJ and Wiseman, which would sure up our front court if both pans out for years to come
