A Wiseman Told Me Never Argue With Fools: Official 2021 Warriors Season Thread

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CSquare43

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I'm with @tremonthustler1, he's obviously hoping to land here...

I hope he does too.

@Gil Scott-Heroin, you still the folks though...


Feels like the Hornets will try to trade for 1.



I just got a chance to watch this whole thing. It really is a noticeable difference in the way he speaks about the Dubs. I feel like he's already been promised the #2 provided he's still there. Word to @tremonthustler1
 

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I'm with @tremonthustler1, he's obviously hoping to land here...

I hope he does too.

@Gil Scott-Heroin, you still the folks though...



I just got a chance to watch this whole thing. It really is a noticeable difference in the way he speaks about the Dubs. I feel like he's already been promised the #2 provided he's still there. Word to @tremonthustler1
The funny this is Wiseman follows this dude on Twitter

 

CSquare43

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The Warriors will make a decision this week that’ll be assessed for the rest of the decade. An autopsy will eventually be conducted on this legendary run. Will it include an extended second life deep into the 2020s or burn out just after Steph Curry hits his post-prime? It could largely hinge on which of the four directions they go on Wednesday.

You know the three names: Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman. Two of the three will be available for the Warriors to select. You also know the other option — trading the pick before it’s used, cashing in on the asset before you drive the new car off the lot.

Those are the four paths, all veering off into different futures. A day before the decision is made, what’s the argument for and against each avenue?

Anthony Edwards
Argument for drafting him

Way back when humans could congregate together without fear of a spreading pandemic, a whole bunch of NBA executives made a trip in November 2019 to Hawaii. Larry Harris, one of the Warriors’ assistant general managers, was among them. They were there for the Maui Invitational. Georgia faced Michigan State in the tournament. Anthony Edwards stole the show, scoring 33 second-half points.

Some of those in attendance — and others who watched stateside — left feeling as if they’d just seen the future first pick. He always looked the part, a strong 6-foot-5 guard with rare explosion. On this night, that was packaged into the best basketball player in the building. He hit seven 3-pointers, some tightly contested. He defended with focus. He delivered two of the best bounce passes you’ll see (1:27 mark and 4:14 mark of this absurd highlight package, as Bill Walton swoons at every clip). He checked every box.

LaMelo Ball doesn’t have that night in his catalog. Neither does James Wiseman. They, like Edwards, have elite attributes and flashbulb moments, but Edwards was the only of the three to put it all together on a big stage for an entire game against a highly respected college program. So I can see how that’s a hard memory to shake, no matter the context before, after and around it.

Edwards has revealed his idealized version to the world. Any scout who saw it would naturally feel that, in the correct developmental environment, an NBA team could get some version of that for, let’s say, 70 nights a year. That is appealing.

Argument against drafting him

The game before his breakout, Edwards was pretty invisible in a 19-point loss to Dayton, led by Obi Toppin, another lottery pick who was easily the best player on the floor that night. Toppin had 25 points on 11 shots. Edwards had six on 10. He missed all five of his 3s. He didn’t have an assist in 28 minutes.

That’s just one of the many duds on his freshman game log. Edwards took 245 3-pointers in 32 games and only made 75 of them — 29.4 percent on 7.7 attempts per game, the second lowest among the country’s 50 most high-volume chuckers. So … shot selection was a problem. As was the selective defensive focus and energy. The statistical profile and warts, in normal years, scream mid-to-late lottery project, not top pick.

The Warriors have worked him out twice. The first, as ESPN reported, “underwhelmed.” After it, they advised him to keep that motor always revved — practice or game, make or miss, good day or bad. In a Zoom call with reporters, Edwards said he most needed to watch his “eating habits” after entering the league. So, if the Warriors select him, it’s clear there will be a whole lot of professional development, a constant nudging needed behind the scenes to go along with that wave of guaranteed early inefficiency.

It’ll be quite the project. Do they believe a consistently productive wing would emerge on the other side of it?

LaMelo Ball
Argument for drafting him

Let’s just assume for a second all three of these guys have encouraging rookie seasons. We’ll say Wiseman is an immediate double-double threat who blocks shots, survives in space and occasionally hits a jumper. We’ll say Edwards matures quickly, only takes open catch-and-shoot 3s and has some wow moments as a complementary two-way wing. Then we’ll say Ball’s vision is as elite as advertised, the deep rainbows go in semi-often and the family drama doesn’t follow.

Which of those three, at the early March trade deadline, do you think would have the most value on the market for a Bradley Beal type?

The answer has to be Ball, especially for any type of retooling franchise who’d presumably want a marketable face to jumpstart the next era. Centers don’t grab attention or control the modern game. A wing like Edwards doesn’t ever really project as the lead initiator of an offense. Ball, if everything clicks, checks both boxes. He’d be the 6-foot-7 quarterback who directs traffic and draws eyeballs.

Even if he isn’t a great fit, plenty of smart basketball thinkers believe he’ll be the best player from this draft. The best player usually has the most trade value. That’s the argument for him.

Argument against drafting him

Forget about the LaVar stuff. The Warriors wouldn’t refuse to take a prospect because his father once said Steve Kerr was the “Milli Vanilli of coaching.” Both Kerr and Curry — who LaVar also once roasted — have navigated far thornier public spats. The departing President has trolled each separately. They can handle a handful of LaVar quotes. I actually think there are some Warriors people who’d enjoy the comedic aspect of it.

But the fit’s a problem. LaMelo’s film reminds me of a video game. He kind of just dribbles around and controls all the action, shooting and passing at his convenience. Playing within the Warriors’ system, forced to explore untapped off-ball responsibilities, might be best for his game. But I’m not sure it’s the tug-of-war project the Warriors want to undertake.

Yes, they’re trying to find the next franchise face for when the Curry era fades away. But this isn’t a Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa transfer of power scenario. It’s more Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. Curry’s not a fading leader about to hand over the keys. He’s probably got, what, somewhere between four and seven years left as the controlling force and face of this offense and franchise?

High-lottery guards whose skill, appeal and highlight tape almost all come with the ball in their hands don’t typically arrive ready to comfortably sit behind (and play sidekick to) a high-usage teammate for more than a season or two.

James Wiseman
Argument for drafting him

Quick to some notable Monday tidbits. Wiseman hopped on a Zoom call with reporters and pretty openly revealed that the Warriors and Hornets were the only two teams he’d worked out for and with whom he appears to be interested in landing. He was cordial about the Timberwolves possibility, but also said he hasn’t spoken to Minnesota and doesn’t seem keen on landing in Karl-Anthony Towns’ orbit. The Warriors hold greater appeal.

“Being in that type of tradition, that type of environment would be great for me,” Wiseman said. “It would create an extra push of maturity, learning under Steph and Klay.”

With decision time nearing, Wiseman remains the most likely pick, as he has been for weeks. I’ve detailed the reasons why he makes perfect sense, so there’s no use in rehashing at much length. Put simply: Immediate fit at a position of need, jolts two areas of weakness (rebounding and shot-blocking), can probably contribute quickest and has the highest long-term floor. Guys with his physical profile (and lack of injury history) almost always are at least solid starters for a decade. It’s hard to envision a scenario where he’s a bust.

Argument against drafting him

The jumper. The form looks smooth for a 7-footer. He shot it with some confidence in his brief college stint. There’s reason to believe it can become a weapon from the deep mid-range and possibly out to 3 and, if it does, that probably means he’d at least become a 70ish percent free-throw shooter.

But what if it doesn’t? What if he never becomes accurate enough from the mid-range to make for it to be a reliably efficient part of an offense and, in turn, he never becomes comfortable stretching out to the 3? What if he’s a 60 percent or below free-throw shooter?

That significantly limits his ceiling. Suddenly he becomes a DeAndre Jordan type, which sounds worse in Jordan’s current context. But he was once a vital component of a fringe contender. Jordan even once made All-NBA third team as a rim-running leaper, lob threat, shot-blocker and overall large, mobile defensive force.

If that’s Wiseman, that’s not a terrible outcome for the second overall pick. But it’s also not a home run. A reliable jumper vaults him to a different stratosphere. It’d change the geometry of the floor and make him about as compatible of a frontcourt match as you could find for Draymond Green.

Trade the pick
Argument against trading it

Let’s separate Andrew Wiggins from his contract. Wiggins is being paid $94 million the next three seasons. On the open market, that’s a poison pill. Most franchises consider him a negative asset in trade talks. If he’s part of a deal, that drags down the value of the Warriors’ side of the swap.

But Wiggins — the player — is of positive value to the current version of the Warriors. He’s their only established wing. He will play 30 minutes a game for them this upcoming season, finish third on their team in scoring and often take the largest defensive shifts on the opponent’s best scorer. If he was a free agent, what would he be worth? $15 million a season? $18 million? $20 million?

Certainly not $30 million, which the Warriors will pay him next season, plus the spiked tax bill. But forget the money. When they green-lit the D’Angelo Russell sign-and-trade, they asked for this huge tax bill in order to have an extra piece, however overpriced. This is about having a useful starter in the meantime and the salary slot in the long term, should a can’t-miss trade present itself.

That’s why a recently floated deal of Wiggins and the second pick to San Antonio for LaMarcus Aldridge and the 11th pick makes no sense. The Warriors lose both sides of that swap. You’d obviously rather have the second than the 11th pick, but you could make an easy argument that Wiggins is of greater use to the Warriors than Aldridge. He’s a younger, growing wing with three years of control. Aldridge is an aging center heading to unrestricted free agency next July.

The reality is nothing landscape-altering seems to be there. The Bucks just went all in to appease Giannis Antetokounmpo. Daryl Morey, the former Rockets GM now running the 76ers basketball operations, appears intent on giving the Ben Simmons-Joel Embiid partnership a shot. The Wizards say they’re building around Bradley Beal. The Pelicans just received three first-rounders from Milwaukee for Jrue Holiday. James Harden to the Warriors isn’t happening.

So the simplest path might be clearing: Keep and use the second pick, keep your starting small forward next season and maintain the ability to package them both together later when — and this is a gamble on your developmental staff — maybe they’re worth more, if Wiggins and the rookie have an encouraging first couple of months and then maybe a Beal becomes available at the deadline.

For now: I see maybe a minor trade-down scenario moving the Warriors off the second pick, but nothing seismic.

Argument for trading it

After months of studying, weeks of in-person prospect meetings and a final Wednesday pow-wow among the brain trust, what if the Warriors’ decision-makers decide that they believe another prospect outside of the top three (Deni Avdija, Tyrese Haliburton, Isaac Okoro) makes the most sense?

They might be criticized and second-guessed in the moment. But the draft night moment doesn’t matter. The next decade does. The best player in this draft could come from anywhere in the lottery. But, if the Warriors decide to venture outside of the top-three consensus, the best value play is to attempt a trade down (picking up at least a minor asset, perhaps using the trade exception) and grab that guy in his expected range.

It’s a tricky balance that requires a willing (and desperate) dance partner. But that’s the most likely trade scenario I see a day out — a small trade back that nets them an extra asset and doesn’t involve Wiggins.
 

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The Warriors will make a decision this week that’ll be assessed for the rest of the decade. An autopsy will eventually be conducted on this legendary run. Will it include an extended second life deep into the 2020s or burn out just after Steph Curry hits his post-prime? It could largely hinge on which of the four directions they go on Wednesday.

You know the three names: Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman. Two of the three will be available for the Warriors to select. You also know the other option — trading the pick before it’s used, cashing in on the asset before you drive the new car off the lot.

Those are the four paths, all veering off into different futures. A day before the decision is made, what’s the argument for and against each avenue?

Anthony Edwards
Argument for drafting him

Way back when humans could congregate together without fear of a spreading pandemic, a whole bunch of NBA executives made a trip in November 2019 to Hawaii. Larry Harris, one of the Warriors’ assistant general managers, was among them. They were there for the Maui Invitational. Georgia faced Michigan State in the tournament. Anthony Edwards stole the show, scoring 33 second-half points.

Some of those in attendance — and others who watched stateside — left feeling as if they’d just seen the future first pick. He always looked the part, a strong 6-foot-5 guard with rare explosion. On this night, that was packaged into the best basketball player in the building. He hit seven 3-pointers, some tightly contested. He defended with focus. He delivered two of the best bounce passes you’ll see (1:27 mark and 4:14 mark of this absurd highlight package, as Bill Walton swoons at every clip). He checked every box.

LaMelo Ball doesn’t have that night in his catalog. Neither does James Wiseman. They, like Edwards, have elite attributes and flashbulb moments, but Edwards was the only of the three to put it all together on a big stage for an entire game against a highly respected college program. So I can see how that’s a hard memory to shake, no matter the context before, after and around it.

Edwards has revealed his idealized version to the world. Any scout who saw it would naturally feel that, in the correct developmental environment, an NBA team could get some version of that for, let’s say, 70 nights a year. That is appealing.

Argument against drafting him

The game before his breakout, Edwards was pretty invisible in a 19-point loss to Dayton, led by Obi Toppin, another lottery pick who was easily the best player on the floor that night. Toppin had 25 points on 11 shots. Edwards had six on 10. He missed all five of his 3s. He didn’t have an assist in 28 minutes.

That’s just one of the many duds on his freshman game log. Edwards took 245 3-pointers in 32 games and only made 75 of them — 29.4 percent on 7.7 attempts per game, the second lowest among the country’s 50 most high-volume chuckers. So … shot selection was a problem. As was the selective defensive focus and energy. The statistical profile and warts, in normal years, scream mid-to-late lottery project, not top pick.

The Warriors have worked him out twice. The first, as ESPN reported, “underwhelmed.” After it, they advised him to keep that motor always revved — practice or game, make or miss, good day or bad. In a Zoom call with reporters, Edwards said he most needed to watch his “eating habits” after entering the league. So, if the Warriors select him, it’s clear there will be a whole lot of professional development, a constant nudging needed behind the scenes to go along with that wave of guaranteed early inefficiency.

It’ll be quite the project. Do they believe a consistently productive wing would emerge on the other side of it?

LaMelo Ball
Argument for drafting him

Let’s just assume for a second all three of these guys have encouraging rookie seasons. We’ll say Wiseman is an immediate double-double threat who blocks shots, survives in space and occasionally hits a jumper. We’ll say Edwards matures quickly, only takes open catch-and-shoot 3s and has some wow moments as a complementary two-way wing. Then we’ll say Ball’s vision is as elite as advertised, the deep rainbows go in semi-often and the family drama doesn’t follow.

Which of those three, at the early March trade deadline, do you think would have the most value on the market for a Bradley Beal type?

The answer has to be Ball, especially for any type of retooling franchise who’d presumably want a marketable face to jumpstart the next era. Centers don’t grab attention or control the modern game. A wing like Edwards doesn’t ever really project as the lead initiator of an offense. Ball, if everything clicks, checks both boxes. He’d be the 6-foot-7 quarterback who directs traffic and draws eyeballs.

Even if he isn’t a great fit, plenty of smart basketball thinkers believe he’ll be the best player from this draft. The best player usually has the most trade value. That’s the argument for him.

Argument against drafting him

Forget about the LaVar stuff. The Warriors wouldn’t refuse to take a prospect because his father once said Steve Kerr was the “Milli Vanilli of coaching.” Both Kerr and Curry — who LaVar also once roasted — have navigated far thornier public spats. The departing President has trolled each separately. They can handle a handful of LaVar quotes. I actually think there are some Warriors people who’d enjoy the comedic aspect of it.

But the fit’s a problem. LaMelo’s film reminds me of a video game. He kind of just dribbles around and controls all the action, shooting and passing at his convenience. Playing within the Warriors’ system, forced to explore untapped off-ball responsibilities, might be best for his game. But I’m not sure it’s the tug-of-war project the Warriors want to undertake.

Yes, they’re trying to find the next franchise face for when the Curry era fades away. But this isn’t a Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa transfer of power scenario. It’s more Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. Curry’s not a fading leader about to hand over the keys. He’s probably got, what, somewhere between four and seven years left as the controlling force and face of this offense and franchise?

High-lottery guards whose skill, appeal and highlight tape almost all come with the ball in their hands don’t typically arrive ready to comfortably sit behind (and play sidekick to) a high-usage teammate for more than a season or two.

James Wiseman
Argument for drafting him

Quick to some notable Monday tidbits. Wiseman hopped on a Zoom call with reporters and pretty openly revealed that the Warriors and Hornets were the only two teams he’d worked out for and with whom he appears to be interested in landing. He was cordial about the Timberwolves possibility, but also said he hasn’t spoken to Minnesota and doesn’t seem keen on landing in Karl-Anthony Towns’ orbit. The Warriors hold greater appeal.

“Being in that type of tradition, that type of environment would be great for me,” Wiseman said. “It would create an extra push of maturity, learning under Steph and Klay.”

With decision time nearing, Wiseman remains the most likely pick, as he has been for weeks. I’ve detailed the reasons why he makes perfect sense, so there’s no use in rehashing at much length. Put simply: Immediate fit at a position of need, jolts two areas of weakness (rebounding and shot-blocking), can probably contribute quickest and has the highest long-term floor. Guys with his physical profile (and lack of injury history) almost always are at least solid starters for a decade. It’s hard to envision a scenario where he’s a bust.

Argument against drafting him

The jumper. The form looks smooth for a 7-footer. He shot it with some confidence in his brief college stint. There’s reason to believe it can become a weapon from the deep mid-range and possibly out to 3 and, if it does, that probably means he’d at least become a 70ish percent free-throw shooter.

But what if it doesn’t? What if he never becomes accurate enough from the mid-range to make for it to be a reliably efficient part of an offense and, in turn, he never becomes comfortable stretching out to the 3? What if he’s a 60 percent or below free-throw shooter?

That significantly limits his ceiling. Suddenly he becomes a DeAndre Jordan type, which sounds worse in Jordan’s current context. But he was once a vital component of a fringe contender. Jordan even once made All-NBA third team as a rim-running leaper, lob threat, shot-blocker and overall large, mobile defensive force.

If that’s Wiseman, that’s not a terrible outcome for the second overall pick. But it’s also not a home run. A reliable jumper vaults him to a different stratosphere. It’d change the geometry of the floor and make him about as compatible of a frontcourt match as you could find for Draymond Green.

Trade the pick
Argument against trading it

Let’s separate Andrew Wiggins from his contract. Wiggins is being paid $94 million the next three seasons. On the open market, that’s a poison pill. Most franchises consider him a negative asset in trade talks. If he’s part of a deal, that drags down the value of the Warriors’ side of the swap.

But Wiggins — the player — is of positive value to the current version of the Warriors. He’s their only established wing. He will play 30 minutes a game for them this upcoming season, finish third on their team in scoring and often take the largest defensive shifts on the opponent’s best scorer. If he was a free agent, what would he be worth? $15 million a season? $18 million? $20 million?

Certainly not $30 million, which the Warriors will pay him next season, plus the spiked tax bill. But forget the money. When they green-lit the D’Angelo Russell sign-and-trade, they asked for this huge tax bill in order to have an extra piece, however overpriced. This is about having a useful starter in the meantime and the salary slot in the long term, should a can’t-miss trade present itself.

That’s why a recently floated deal of Wiggins and the second pick to San Antonio for LaMarcus Aldridge and the 11th pick makes no sense. The Warriors lose both sides of that swap. You’d obviously rather have the second than the 11th pick, but you could make an easy argument that Wiggins is of greater use to the Warriors than Aldridge. He’s a younger, growing wing with three years of control. Aldridge is an aging center heading to unrestricted free agency next July.

The reality is nothing landscape-altering seems to be there. The Bucks just went all in to appease Giannis Antetokounmpo. Daryl Morey, the former Rockets GM now running the 76ers basketball operations, appears intent on giving the Ben Simmons-Joel Embiid partnership a shot. The Wizards say they’re building around Bradley Beal. The Pelicans just received three first-rounders from Milwaukee for Jrue Holiday. James Harden to the Warriors isn’t happening.

So the simplest path might be clearing: Keep and use the second pick, keep your starting small forward next season and maintain the ability to package them both together later when — and this is a gamble on your developmental staff — maybe they’re worth more, if Wiggins and the rookie have an encouraging first couple of months and then maybe a Beal becomes available at the deadline.

For now: I see maybe a minor trade-down scenario moving the Warriors off the second pick, but nothing seismic.

Argument for trading it

After months of studying, weeks of in-person prospect meetings and a final Wednesday pow-wow among the brain trust, what if the Warriors’ decision-makers decide that they believe another prospect outside of the top three (Deni Avdija, Tyrese Haliburton, Isaac Okoro) makes the most sense?

They might be criticized and second-guessed in the moment. But the draft night moment doesn’t matter. The next decade does. The best player in this draft could come from anywhere in the lottery. But, if the Warriors decide to venture outside of the top-three consensus, the best value play is to attempt a trade down (picking up at least a minor asset, perhaps using the trade exception) and grab that guy in his expected range.

It’s a tricky balance that requires a willing (and desperate) dance partner. But that’s the most likely trade scenario I see a day out — a small trade back that nets them an extra asset and doesn’t involve Wiggins.
He mentioned something I've been saying for months: Big men with Wiseman's talent, athletic profile and with no injury history don't fail in the NBA. They might not become stars but they're almost always at minimum starters for a decade.

If Wiseman played all 4 years in college and was coming out this year we'd be calling him the next David Robinson. He has that ceiling but it's just gonna take a little longer and a lot of development to reach it cause he's so young.
 
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