A Wiseman Told Me Never Argue With Fools: Official 2021 Warriors Season Thread

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CSquare43

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The last word on last year
  • 15-50, 15th in Western Conference
  • 30th in Offensive Efficiency (105.2)
  • 26th in Defensive Efficiency (113.8)
Well, that was ugly. Hoping to compete in the newly opened Chase Center even after losing Kevin Durant to free agency and Klay Thompson to a torn ACL, the Warriors were overmatched from the word go. It’s easy to look back and say Steph Curry’s wrist injury was the death knell, but the Warriors were getting their butts kicked every night even before Curry went out. Draymond Green looked like a shell of his former self, max contract addition D’Angelo Russell defended with the catatonic glaze of somebody in line at the DMV and the rest of the roster was woefully undermanned.

The Warriors were able to coax some minor victories out of this mess. A trade of Russell for Andrew Wiggins yielded a likely 2021 lottery pick that is probably more valuable than either player’s contract at this point. Scrap-heap pickup Marquese Chriss ended up being a legit NBA rotation player, while G Leaguer Damion Lee made a similar jump. Second-rounder Eric Paschall padded his numbers in enough meaningless games to make First Team All-Rookie. And they harvested second-round picks by moving veterans Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III and Willie Cauley-Stein.

Nonetheless, in the bigger picture 2019-20 was a complete disaster for Golden State, and the only real impactful positive from it was that it yielded the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. Let us never speak of this season again.

Offseason summary
Golden State’s biggest offseason development wasn’t a “move” per se, but Thompson’s Achilles tear the day of the draft.

  • Drafted C James Wiseman (2nd)
  • Signed SF Kent Bazemore for one year, minimum
  • Signed PG Brad Wanamaker for one year, $2.25 million
  • Trade a protected first-round pick to Oklahoma City for SF Kelly Oubre
  • Did not re-sign C Dragan Bender and waived PG Ky Bowman
The Oubre acquisition, in particular, seems helpful. The pick they gave up is top-20 protected, and (spoiler) I don’t really see this team having a top-10 record this season. However, Oubre is 24 and has Bird rights attached, positioning the Warriors to re-sign him to a longer deal in the offseason. That’s important because their cap situation limits their ability to play the free-agent game.

After acquiring Oubre, the Warriors are $42 million into the luxury tax and facing a repeater penalty on top of it. While the league’s revised luxury tax calculation for 2020-21 should limit some of the worst financial impacts, we’re still talking about a potential nine-figure check to the league if the payroll stays at this level.

Speaking of which, Golden State’s offseason was notable for one thing the Warriors didn’t do: Spend their taxpayer midlevel exception. It’s the first sign that maybe the financial firehose that spewed salary money the past few years may have some limits.

The other key piece is Wiseman, who could have value whether he stays (as a center of the future) or goes (as a piece in a trade to bring Curry some better help). I wasn’t as high on him as some, and more generally using a high pick on a center in a guards’ league might not be the way to go. But there’s no doubt that he fills a need and has some alluring upside. Physically, he’s comparable to Hassan Whiteside, without some of Whiteside’s red flags but with a more questionable motor.

At a lower level, Bazemore and Wanamaker were fine pickups to fill out the bench, especially at that price. But nothing they could have done this offseason can replace Thompson.

The players in a nutshell
PLAYER THE SCOOP
Kent Bazemore, SF Beloved teammate; shot comes and goes but D a constant.
Marquese Chriss, PF Springy reclamation project is solid backup, at least.
Steph Curry, PG Probably will be on ball more in this Warriors iteration
Draymond Green, PF Defensive linchpin lost some of his fire last year.
Damion Lee, SG Steph’s brother-in-law is a legit NBA rotation player.
Kevon Looney, C Undersized center with limited range and crumbling body.
Mychal Mulder, SG Had good, brief run but can the offense hold up?
Kelly Oubre, SF Emerging 24-year-old could break bank with good year.
Eric Paschall, PF First-team All-Rookie but advanced stats still dubious.
Jordan Poole, SG Disastrous rookie year but baby steps toward end.
Alan Smailagic, C Only 20 but plays like he’s several years younger.
Klay Thompson, SG Achilles after an ACL means long recovery road ahead.
Juan Toscano-Anderson, PF Grinding combo forward seems likely to stay on 2-way.
Brad Wanamaker, PG Hope they didn’t wannascorer. He can defend, though.
Andrew Wiggins, SG Excited to see a new team talk themselves into him.
James Wiseman, C He’s big, moves and shoots ... but is he a star?
Nico Mannion, PG (2w) Good passer who needs to be greater scoring threat.
Likely lineup and projection
Rate = BORG projection for points per 100 possessions above (or below) replacement
Rank = Projected BORG rank among players at the position with at least 150 minutes in 2020-21
Value = BORD$ projection for 2020-21
(R) = Rookie, no projection


Starters
POS

PLAYER

RATE

RANK

VALUE ($M)

PG Stephen Curry 6.26 2 34.5
SG Andrew Wiggins 1.71 25 12.3
SF Kelly Oubre, Jr. 2.16 17 14.2
PF Draymond Green 2.65 18 15.3
C James Wiseman (R) (R) (R0
Rotation Reserves
POS PLAYER RATE RANK VALUE ($M)
PG Brad Wanamaker 0.41 59 2.9
SG Damion Lee 1.26 40 7.0
SF Kent Bazemore 0.93 36 5.6
PF Marquese Chriss 1.12 42 5.6
C Kevon Looney -0.53 88 Min
The Rest
POS PLAYER RATE RANK VALUE ($M)
SG Jordan Poole -0.84 93 Min
SG Mychal Mulder 0.24 67 2.8
SF Eric Paschall -0.42 73 Min
PF Juan Toscano-Anderson -0.03 73 Min
C Alan Smailagic -- -- Min
SG Klay Thompson (Inj.) 2.11 24 13.1
2w Nico Mannion (R) (R) (R)
Burning questions
Will they keep spending?

The Warriors are at a pivotal point right now, with the most expensive roster in the league and yet a team on the floor that will struggle to finish in the West’s top eight. They’re playing in an expensive building that can’t yet have any fans, which was the one thing that was supposed to offset the payroll cost.

Maybe I’m wrong and Curry plays like an MVP, Green has a renaissance and Wiggins discovers a motor. But in the more likely scenario, the reality of Golden State’s situation becomes ever more clear as the trade deadline approaches. Thompson’s injury is an absolute killer here. Not only does he take over the title of NBA’s worst contract from John Wall (he’s owed $157 million over the next four years), but his removal also exposes some fatal holes in the Warriors’ plan for returning to prominence.

Being so wildly far into the tax is a relief in some ways: There is no plausible means of dumping $42 million in one go at the trade deadline. However, this goes way beyond the current season. Golden State is already $30 million over the line for next season and will be just as far beyond in any season in which it employs Curry. If they’re good, fine. If they’re just muddling along in the middle, though, it’s untenable. Speaking of which …

Will Curry get itchy?

We keep hearing about James Harden and Bradley Beal. What about Curry? He has two years left on his deal and then can become an unrestricted free agent. Like Harden and Beal, he’s seeing the tail end of his prime waste away on a team that will have to overachieve to make it beyond the first round of the playoffs, and at 32 the clock is ticking. Curry could also sign a three-year extension after the season that would pay him (wait for it) the ungodly sum of $57 million in 2023-24, when he’ll be 36 years old, but do the Warriors really want to go further down this financial road?

Curry has given no hint that he has any interests in another destination, but he only played three games last year. If his return can’t push the Warriors beyond the middle of the pack, one wonders if he re-evaluates future options after the season.

Meanwhile, the Thompson injury has to force in an internal reckoning from the team side. Does it still make sense to be all-in on this roster? Or is it time to cash out their Curry and Green stock and reload for the next generation?

Outlook and prediction
As much as I may want the old Warriors back … I don’t think they’re coming back. Curry still projects as elite, and I think a more motivated Green can return to something closer to the defensive force he was in 2018-19. Nonetheless, even with a relatively optimistic forecast input for Wiseman, there are too many shortcomings in too many places for this team to rate as elite, and the West is too unforgiving to be optimistic about Golden State’s odds of slipping through the cracks.

Oubre is a good player but, he’s not Klay Thompson. Wiggins, even at his most lethargic, will try more on D than Russell did, but he’s never made any team he’s on better. Green is 30 but looked quite a bit older last year. Behind that is a barely adequate bench and a lot of spare bits and pieces, the residue of having the 30thpick in the draft every year and limited free-agent spending resources.

The question is whether this causes an adjustment at midseason, and what that might mean for the rest of it. Last year was shocking but excusable; this season, if my projections are right, could be much more of an existential jolt to the franchise’s self-image. Even if the Warriors stay all-in on this group and don’t cut salary, they may have trouble making to the play-in tournament, let alone the main draw.

Prediction: 35-37, 11th in Western Conference

Related Reading
• NBA Season Preview: More from our NBA beat writers and insiders
• Hollinger’s Previews: Find all of John’s team previews here

(Photo: Kelvin Kuo / USA Today Sports)

:stopitslime:
 
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The last word on last year
  • 15-50, 15th in Western Conference
  • 30th in Offensive Efficiency (105.2)
  • 26th in Defensive Efficiency (113.8)
Well, that was ugly. Hoping to compete in the newly opened Chase Center even after losing Kevin Durant to free agency and Klay Thompson to a torn ACL, the Warriors were overmatched from the word go. It’s easy to look back and say Steph Curry’s wrist injury was the death knell, but the Warriors were getting their butts kicked every night even before Curry went out. Draymond Green looked like a shell of his former self, max contract addition D’Angelo Russell defended with the catatonic glaze of somebody in line at the DMV and the rest of the roster was woefully undermanned.

The Warriors were able to coax some minor victories out of this mess. A trade of Russell for Andrew Wiggins yielded a likely 2021 lottery pick that is probably more valuable than either player’s contract at this point. Scrap-heap pickup Marquese Chriss ended up being a legit NBA rotation player, while G Leaguer Damion Lee made a similar jump. Second-rounder Eric Paschall padded his numbers in enough meaningless games to make First Team All-Rookie. And they harvested second-round picks by moving veterans Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III and Willie Cauley-Stein.

Nonetheless, in the bigger picture 2019-20 was a complete disaster for Golden State, and the only real impactful positive from it was that it yielded the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. Let us never speak of this season again.

Offseason summary
Golden State’s biggest offseason development wasn’t a “move” per se, but Thompson’s Achilles tear the day of the draft.

  • Drafted C James Wiseman (2nd)
  • Signed SF Kent Bazemore for one year, minimum
  • Signed PG Brad Wanamaker for one year, $2.25 million
  • Trade a protected first-round pick to Oklahoma City for SF Kelly Oubre
  • Did not re-sign C Dragan Bender and waived PG Ky Bowman
The Oubre acquisition, in particular, seems helpful. The pick they gave up is top-20 protected, and (spoiler) I don’t really see this team having a top-10 record this season. However, Oubre is 24 and has Bird rights attached, positioning the Warriors to re-sign him to a longer deal in the offseason. That’s important because their cap situation limits their ability to play the free-agent game.

After acquiring Oubre, the Warriors are $42 million into the luxury tax and facing a repeater penalty on top of it. While the league’s revised luxury tax calculation for 2020-21 should limit some of the worst financial impacts, we’re still talking about a potential nine-figure check to the league if the payroll stays at this level.

Speaking of which, Golden State’s offseason was notable for one thing the Warriors didn’t do: Spend their taxpayer midlevel exception. It’s the first sign that maybe the financial firehose that spewed salary money the past few years may have some limits.

The other key piece is Wiseman, who could have value whether he stays (as a center of the future) or goes (as a piece in a trade to bring Curry some better help). I wasn’t as high on him as some, and more generally using a high pick on a center in a guards’ league might not be the way to go. But there’s no doubt that he fills a need and has some alluring upside. Physically, he’s comparable to Hassan Whiteside, without some of Whiteside’s red flags but with a more questionable motor.

At a lower level, Bazemore and Wanamaker were fine pickups to fill out the bench, especially at that price. But nothing they could have done this offseason can replace Thompson.

The players in a nutshell
PLAYER THE SCOOP
Kent Bazemore, SF Beloved teammate; shot comes and goes but D a constant.
Marquese Chriss, PF Springy reclamation project is solid backup, at least.
Steph Curry, PG Probably will be on ball more in this Warriors iteration
Draymond Green, PF Defensive linchpin lost some of his fire last year.
Damion Lee, SG Steph’s brother-in-law is a legit NBA rotation player.
Kevon Looney, C Undersized center with limited range and crumbling body.
Mychal Mulder, SG Had good, brief run but can the offense hold up?
Kelly Oubre, SF Emerging 24-year-old could break bank with good year.
Eric Paschall, PF First-team All-Rookie but advanced stats still dubious.
Jordan Poole, SG Disastrous rookie year but baby steps toward end.
Alan Smailagic, C Only 20 but plays like he’s several years younger.
Klay Thompson, SG Achilles after an ACL means long recovery road ahead.
Juan Toscano-Anderson, PF Grinding combo forward seems likely to stay on 2-way.
Brad Wanamaker, PG Hope they didn’t wannascorer. He can defend, though.
Andrew Wiggins, SG Excited to see a new team talk themselves into him.
James Wiseman, C He’s big, moves and shoots ... but is he a star?
Nico Mannion, PG (2w) Good passer who needs to be greater scoring threat.
Likely lineup and projection
Rate = BORG projection for points per 100 possessions above (or below) replacement
Rank = Projected BORG rank among players at the position with at least 150 minutes in 2020-21
Value = BORD$ projection for 2020-21
(R) = Rookie, no projection


Starters
POS

PLAYER

RATE

RANK

VALUE ($M)

PG Stephen Curry 6.26 2 34.5
SG Andrew Wiggins 1.71 25 12.3
SF Kelly Oubre, Jr. 2.16 17 14.2
PF Draymond Green 2.65 18 15.3
C James Wiseman (R) (R) (R0
Rotation Reserves
POS PLAYER RATE RANK VALUE ($M)
PG Brad Wanamaker 0.41 59 2.9
SG Damion Lee 1.26 40 7.0
SF Kent Bazemore 0.93 36 5.6
PF Marquese Chriss 1.12 42 5.6
C Kevon Looney -0.53 88 Min
The Rest
POS PLAYER RATE RANK VALUE ($M)
SG Jordan Poole -0.84 93 Min
SG Mychal Mulder 0.24 67 2.8
SF Eric Paschall -0.42 73 Min
PF Juan Toscano-Anderson -0.03 73 Min
C Alan Smailagic -- -- Min
SG Klay Thompson (Inj.) 2.11 24 13.1
2w Nico Mannion (R) (R) (R)
Burning questions
Will they keep spending?

The Warriors are at a pivotal point right now, with the most expensive roster in the league and yet a team on the floor that will struggle to finish in the West’s top eight. They’re playing in an expensive building that can’t yet have any fans, which was the one thing that was supposed to offset the payroll cost.

Maybe I’m wrong and Curry plays like an MVP, Green has a renaissance and Wiggins discovers a motor. But in the more likely scenario, the reality of Golden State’s situation becomes ever more clear as the trade deadline approaches. Thompson’s injury is an absolute killer here. Not only does he take over the title of NBA’s worst contract from John Wall (he’s owed $157 million over the next four years), but his removal also exposes some fatal holes in the Warriors’ plan for returning to prominence.

Being so wildly far into the tax is a relief in some ways: There is no plausible means of dumping $42 million in one go at the trade deadline. However, this goes way beyond the current season. Golden State is already $30 million over the line for next season and will be just as far beyond in any season in which it employs Curry. If they’re good, fine. If they’re just muddling along in the middle, though, it’s untenable. Speaking of which …

Will Curry get itchy?

We keep hearing about James Harden and Bradley Beal. What about Curry? He has two years left on his deal and then can become an unrestricted free agent. Like Harden and Beal, he’s seeing the tail end of his prime waste away on a team that will have to overachieve to make it beyond the first round of the playoffs, and at 32 the clock is ticking. Curry could also sign a three-year extension after the season that would pay him (wait for it) the ungodly sum of $57 million in 2023-24, when he’ll be 36 years old, but do the Warriors really want to go further down this financial road?

Curry has given no hint that he has any interests in another destination, but he only played three games last year. If his return can’t push the Warriors beyond the middle of the pack, one wonders if he re-evaluates future options after the season.

Meanwhile, the Thompson injury has to force in an internal reckoning from the team side. Does it still make sense to be all-in on this roster? Or is it time to cash out their Curry and Green stock and reload for the next generation?

Outlook and prediction
As much as I may want the old Warriors back … I don’t think they’re coming back. Curry still projects as elite, and I think a more motivated Green can return to something closer to the defensive force he was in 2018-19. Nonetheless, even with a relatively optimistic forecast input for Wiseman, there are too many shortcomings in too many places for this team to rate as elite, and the West is too unforgiving to be optimistic about Golden State’s odds of slipping through the cracks.

Oubre is a good player but, he’s not Klay Thompson. Wiggins, even at his most lethargic, will try more on D than Russell did, but he’s never made any team he’s on better. Green is 30 but looked quite a bit older last year. Behind that is a barely adequate bench and a lot of spare bits and pieces, the residue of having the 30thpick in the draft every year and limited free-agent spending resources.

The question is whether this causes an adjustment at midseason, and what that might mean for the rest of it. Last year was shocking but excusable; this season, if my projections are right, could be much more of an existential jolt to the franchise’s self-image. Even if the Warriors stay all-in on this group and don’t cut salary, they may have trouble making to the play-in tournament, let alone the main draw.

Prediction: 35-37, 11th in Western Conference

Related Reading
• NBA Season Preview: More from our NBA beat writers and insiders
• Hollinger’s Previews: Find all of John’s team previews here

(Photo: Kelvin Kuo / USA Today Sports)

:stopitslime:
I wonder what that writer predicted OKC's record would be last season.
 

CSquare43

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Summary:

# Wiggins:
* **What He Worked on in the Off Season**: Ball Handling & Shooting
* **How Big of a Role Wiggins' Expects to Play (Esp When Curry's off the Floor)**: Other players (including himself) need to step up and fill the gaps whenever Steph is on the bench
* **Does Wiggins See Himself as Someone who will be Vocal (like Draymond)**: Gotta be vocal when you're on court. Here for any help the more younger players need from someone who has experience like him
* **How Comfortable Wiggins is Playing Off Ball and On Ball**:
* On Ball: Capable of Creating Plays for Others
* Off Ball: Great Slasher, Best when Driving & Cutting to the basket & Finishing around the rim
* No preference and will do whatever depending on the flow of the game
# On His Teammates (& Steve Kerr):
* Wiggins was in a 3-man Scrimmage Group with Curry & Oubre
* Wiggins thinks they are looking better with each day (esp in terms of chemistry and on & off the ball movement)
* **How Excited Wiggins is to Play with Steph**: Very cause he gets to play & learn from someone who's presence can make such a difference
* **Relationship with Kelly Oubre Pre-traded to the Warriors**: they "are cool"
* Notes a lot of similarities: Both Jayhawks, Same Coach in College (Bill Self), Same Trainer (used to workout with each other), Both Like to Compete, Athletic Guards that can Defend + Score
* **Notable Similarities Between Coach Self & Coach Kerr**: Both Player Coaches
* Due to their experiences playing basketball, they can relate a lot more with their players and now how they are feeling & thinking since they've been there and done that
* **What Wiggins Thinks He Can Learn from Draymond Esp Defensively**: Wants to hear from Draymond and pick his brain in terms of what to do for on ball defense & off ball defense
* Ex of what Wiggins Notices Specifically about Draymond's Defense: Positioning, Off Ball Movement, Guarding multiple positions, Asserting himself into the play, Affecting what the offensive player/team is doing
* **Describe Draymond When a Teammate Messes Up on Defense**: Appreciates the tough love because that's how you learn & grow from your mistakes
# What Wiggins Thinks about the Team:
* Even with the preseason being cut short compared to normally, Wiggins feels like they are close to being game ready
* Notes the team's efforts & how much they pride themselves in defense ("we take that personally")
* **How Warriors Feel About Everyone Doubting Them**: Feel good about themselves
* Makes them think "Why not us?" despite all the hard work they are putting in and will be putting in
* Know they have a great team, great coaching staff, great fans, and a healthy Steph Curry
* Based on what he saw from watching the NBA Bubble, not too concerned with the lack of fans (but mainly cause he couldn't experience what it was like)
* To make up for the lack of fan atmosphere, Wiggins think the team just needs to hype each other up, encourage, and build confidence in one another
 

Don Homer

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Notes:

-we look like a team that hasn’t played in 9 months, but we are improving
-wiseman watched practice again
-looney most likely to start
-Poole may not play a lot of mins because of Wanamaker and Bazemore
 

TOAD99

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Notes:

-we look like a team that hasn’t played in 9 months, but we are improving
-wiseman watched practice again
-looney most likely to start
-Poole may not play a lot of mins because of Wanamaker and Bazemore


damn, I thought Poole was looking like a stud in practice
 

CSquare43

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# How Looney Feels Right Now:
* **How Looney Feels Right Now**: "I feel great. Best I've felt in a long time."
* Making sure to do the little things to take care of his body (stretching, strength workouts, rehab activities)
* **On Being the Starting Center for Saturday's Game & How Looney Feels Starting in General**:
* Starting Center changes based on matchups and how Kerr feels
* For Looney, Playing at the end/Finishing the game > Starting
* Comfortable coming off the bench & playing whatever role is asked of him
# Looney & the Role of the Stretch 5:
* **Chance of Playing the Stretch 5 This Season & Role of the Stretch 5**: "Big chance"
* Looney & Quese focused on working on this role in the summer
* Steve wants to space the bigs out and space the floor for Curry, Wiggins, Oubre
* Diving at the center is the main focus in order to put pressure on the rim & find a space for the shooter
* Able to space the floor & keep it open for the wings to be able to slash
* Able to shoot 3s
* Don't expect KD level though
* **Looney on his 3 Point Shot**:
* Notes that shooting 3s wasn't a priority for bigs like him, Jordan Bell, & Javale McGee previously, but rather to dive to the rim
* Past couple of years, Kerr has asked Looney to expand his game (shooting 3s) & expand his range
* Feels comfortable shooting the 3 in both the corner and out top but better from the corner
# Wiseman:
* **Looney on Wiseman Missing Practice**: Understands the struggle of coming in and wanting to be a part of the team but can't (injuries his 1st year)
* Harder to fit in with the team (esp for someone in their rookie year)
* Notes Wiseman have been talking to and asking a lot of questions from Zaza & Chris DeMarco
* Thinks Wiseman will be alright in the end because he's the type that wants to learn & there's a lot of guys who can help him
* Looney excited for him to play & is down to answer any questions Wiseman has
* **What Wiseman has Asked Looney So Far**: Pick-and-rolls, Pick-and-rolls with Steph, Positioning as a Center for the Warriors
* To be a Warriors' Centers (in Looney's words): Make decisions real fast, Read the guards, Know when to roll & when to pop, do hand offs
* Notices Wiseman's good BBIQ & feel for the game from the few conversations Looney has had with him
# Other Teammates (Especially Steph, Nico, Bazemore, Paschall):
* **Thoughts on the "New" Warriors**: Long, Fast, Different Energy
* Previous years, had a lot more vets/older players
* Now, they have a lot Younger guys & Players with a chip on their shoulder and want to prove something
* Looney excited to be part of it
* **Who Impressed Him in Camp**:
* Steph just being Steph
* Nico Mannion played well, made plays, and overall really impressive
* Bazemore been a real good leader, getting his teammates in position, making shots when he needs to
* **Thoughts on Paschall & Comparing Last Season to Present**:
* Paschall made a lot of improvements especially with his playmaking, playing with pace, and rebounding
* Last year, Paschall was asked to do a lot of different things like doing some ISO plays, but this year his role will be different
* **Steph's Presence**: Brings that energy & joy to the game
* Previous years, while Steph has been vocal, he never really had to do a lot of teaching
* This year, he's focus on making his team better, more comfortable, and helping find that chemistry
* Being a real vocal leader on both ends of the court , Setting the tone on offense & defense, Teaching the younger guys
 
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