The last word on last year
- 15-50, 15th in Western Conference
- 30th in Offensive Efficiency (105.2)
- 26th in Defensive Efficiency (113.8)
Well, that was ugly. Hoping to compete in the newly opened Chase Center even after losing Kevin Durant to free agency and Klay Thompson to a torn ACL, the Warriors were overmatched from the word go. It’s easy to look back and say Steph Curry’s wrist injury was the death knell, but the Warriors were getting their butts kicked every night even before Curry went out. Draymond Green looked like a shell of his former self, max contract addition D’Angelo Russell defended with the catatonic glaze of somebody in line at the DMV and the rest of the roster was woefully undermanned.
The Warriors were able to coax some minor victories out of this mess. A trade of Russell for Andrew Wiggins yielded a likely 2021 lottery pick that is probably more valuable than either player’s contract at this point. Scrap-heap pickup Marquese Chriss ended up being a legit NBA rotation player, while G Leaguer Damion Lee made a similar jump. Second-rounder Eric Paschall padded his numbers in enough meaningless games to make First Team All-Rookie. And they harvested second-round picks by moving veterans Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III and Willie Cauley-Stein.
Nonetheless, in the bigger picture 2019-20 was a complete disaster for Golden State, and the only real impactful positive from it was that it yielded the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. Let us never speak of this season again.
Offseason summary
Golden State’s biggest offseason development wasn’t a “move” per se, but Thompson’s Achilles tear the day of the draft.
- Drafted C James Wiseman (2nd)
- Signed SF Kent Bazemore for one year, minimum
- Signed PG Brad Wanamaker for one year, $2.25 million
- Trade a protected first-round pick to Oklahoma City for SF Kelly Oubre
- Did not re-sign C Dragan Bender and waived PG Ky Bowman
The Oubre acquisition, in particular, seems helpful. The pick they gave up is top-20 protected, and (spoiler) I don’t really see this team having a top-10 record this season. However, Oubre is 24 and has Bird rights attached, positioning the Warriors to re-sign him to a longer deal in the offseason. That’s important because their cap situation limits their ability to play the free-agent game.
After acquiring Oubre, the Warriors are $42 million into the luxury tax and facing a repeater penalty on top of it. While the league’s revised luxury tax calculation for 2020-21 should limit some of the worst financial impacts, we’re still talking about a potential nine-figure check to the league if the payroll stays at this level.
Speaking of which, Golden State’s offseason was notable for one thing the Warriors didn’t do: Spend their taxpayer midlevel exception. It’s the first sign that maybe the financial firehose that spewed salary money the past few years may have some limits.
The other key piece is Wiseman, who could have value whether he stays (as a center of the future) or goes (as a piece in a trade to bring Curry some better help). I wasn’t as high on him as some, and more generally using a high pick on a center in a guards’ league might not be the way to go. But there’s no doubt that he fills a need and has some alluring upside. Physically, he’s comparable to Hassan Whiteside, without some of Whiteside’s red flags but with a more questionable motor.
At a lower level, Bazemore and Wanamaker were fine pickups to fill out the bench, especially at that price. But nothing they could have done this offseason can replace Thompson.
The players in a nutshell
PLAYER THE SCOOP
Kent Bazemore, SF Beloved teammate; shot comes and goes but D a constant.
Marquese Chriss, PF Springy reclamation project is solid backup, at least.
Steph Curry, PG Probably will be on ball more in this Warriors iteration
Draymond Green, PF Defensive linchpin lost some of his fire last year.
Damion Lee, SG Steph’s brother-in-law is a legit NBA rotation player.
Kevon Looney, C Undersized center with limited range and crumbling body.
Mychal Mulder, SG Had good, brief run but can the offense hold up?
Kelly Oubre, SF Emerging 24-year-old could break bank with good year.
Eric Paschall, PF First-team All-Rookie but advanced stats still dubious.
Jordan Poole, SG Disastrous rookie year but baby steps toward end.
Alan Smailagic, C Only 20 but plays like he’s several years younger.
Klay Thompson, SG Achilles after an ACL means long recovery road ahead.
Juan Toscano-Anderson, PF Grinding combo forward seems likely to stay on 2-way.
Brad Wanamaker, PG Hope they didn’t wannascorer. He can defend, though.
Andrew Wiggins, SG Excited to see a new team talk themselves into him.
James Wiseman, C He’s big, moves and shoots ... but is he a star?
Nico Mannion, PG (2w) Good passer who needs to be greater scoring threat.
Likely lineup and projection
Rate = BORG projection for points per 100 possessions above (or below) replacement
Rank = Projected BORG rank among players at the position with at least 150 minutes in 2020-21
Value = BORD$ projection for 2020-21
(R) = Rookie, no projection
Starters
POS
PLAYER
RATE
RANK
VALUE ($M)
PG
Stephen Curry 6.26 2 34.5
SG
Andrew Wiggins 1.71 25 12.3
SF
Kelly Oubre, Jr. 2.16 17 14.2
PF
Draymond Green 2.65 18 15.3
C
James Wiseman (R) (R) (R0
Rotation Reserves
POS PLAYER RATE RANK VALUE ($M)
PG
Brad Wanamaker 0.41 59 2.9
SG
Damion Lee 1.26 40 7.0
SF
Kent Bazemore 0.93 36 5.6
PF
Marquese Chriss 1.12 42 5.6
C
Kevon Looney -0.53 88 Min
The Rest
POS PLAYER RATE RANK VALUE ($M)
SG
Jordan Poole -0.84 93 Min
SG
Mychal Mulder 0.24 67 2.8
SF
Eric Paschall -0.42 73 Min
PF
Juan Toscano-Anderson -0.03 73 Min
C
Alan Smailagic -- -- Min
SG
Klay Thompson (Inj.) 2.11 24 13.1
2w
Nico Mannion (R) (R) (R)
Burning questions
Will they keep spending?
The Warriors are at a pivotal point right now, with the most expensive roster in the league and yet a team on the floor that will struggle to finish in the West’s top eight. They’re playing in an expensive building that can’t yet have any fans, which was the one thing that was supposed to offset the payroll cost.
Maybe I’m wrong and Curry plays like an MVP, Green has a renaissance and Wiggins discovers a motor. But in the more likely scenario, the reality of Golden State’s situation becomes ever more clear as the trade deadline approaches.
Thompson’s injury is an absolute killer here. Not only does he take over the title of NBA’s worst contract from John Wall (he’s owed $157 million over the next four years), but his removal also exposes some fatal holes in the Warriors’ plan for returning to prominence.
Being so wildly far into the tax is a relief in some ways: There is no plausible means of dumping $42 million in one go at the trade deadline. However, this goes way beyond the current season. Golden State is already $30 million over the line for
next season and will be just as far beyond in any season in which it employs Curry. If they’re good, fine. If they’re just muddling along in the middle, though, it’s untenable. Speaking of which …
Will Curry get itchy?
We keep hearing about James Harden and Bradley Beal. What about Curry? He has two years left on his deal and then can become an unrestricted free agent. Like Harden and Beal, he’s seeing the tail end of his prime waste away on a team that will have to overachieve to make it beyond the first round of the playoffs, and at 32 the clock is ticking. Curry could also sign a three-year extension after the season that would pay him (wait for it) the ungodly sum of $57 million in 2023-24, when he’ll be 36 years old, but do the Warriors really want to go further down this financial road?
Curry has given no hint that he has any interests in another destination, but he only played three games last year. If his return can’t push the Warriors beyond the middle of the pack, one wonders if he re-evaluates future options after the season.
Meanwhile, the Thompson injury has to force in an internal reckoning from the team side. Does it still make sense to be all-in on this roster? Or is it time to cash out their Curry and Green stock and reload for the next generation?
Outlook and prediction
As much as I may want the old Warriors back … I don’t think they’re coming back. Curry still projects as elite, and I think a more motivated Green can return to something closer to the defensive force he was in 2018-19. Nonetheless, even with a relatively optimistic forecast input for Wiseman, there are too many shortcomings in too many places for this team to rate as elite, and the West is too unforgiving to be optimistic about Golden State’s odds of slipping through the cracks.
Oubre is a good player but, he’s not Klay Thompson. Wiggins, even at his most lethargic, will try more on D than Russell did, but he’s never made any team he’s on better. Green is 30 but looked quite a bit older last year. Behind that is a barely adequate bench and a lot of spare bits and pieces, the residue of having the 30thpick in the draft every year and limited free-agent spending resources.
The question is whether this causes an adjustment at midseason, and what that might mean for the rest of it. Last year was shocking but excusable; this season, if my projections are right, could be much more of an existential jolt to the franchise’s self-image. Even if the Warriors stay all-in on this group and don’t cut salary, they may have trouble making to the play-in tournament, let alone the main draw.
Prediction: 35-37, 11th in Western Conference
Related Reading
• NBA Season Preview: More from our NBA beat writers and insiders
• Hollinger’s Previews: Find all of John’s team previews here
(Photo: Kelvin Kuo / USA Today Sports)