There are plenty of reasons to watch Spence vs. Porter. Here are three of them.
1) Does Porter have what it takes to beat Spence?: Clearly, Spence is a special fighter, combining boxing skills with strong punching power. It seems like he’s a level above Porter. But Porter surprised (me, at least) by beating Danny Garcia last year, and in the amateurs, he triumphed over the likes of Daniel Jacobs, Demetrius Andrade, and Oleksandr Usyk (yeah, seriously). He’s an underdog against Spence, but he’s got a chance to pull the upset, especially since Porter said Spence couldn’t knock out 135-pound Mikey Garcia and that he certainly can’t knock out a 147-pound Porter. Not that Spence seems especially worried, telling Porter during a press conference that he “fights like you’re drowning and you don’t know how to swim.”
2) Can Spence dominate Porter like he dominated Mikey Garcia?: In a battle of two pound-for-pound fighters last March, Spence absolutely flummoxed Garcia. Even though Porter made that comment about not knocking out Garcia, Spence doesn’t see it as a liability or as a predictor for what will happen to Porter. “People thought I was just going to go in there and just bulldoze him,” Spence said. “I just boxed and used my mind and made it a boxing match. So I think the people respect me from that standpoint. Where I just didn’t try to use my size to beat him up. But I definitely see how I want to win against Shawn Porter. I think people give me more respect and value my skills and my abilities.” Spence has made it clear that he wants to knock out Porter. If so, he’d be the first boxer to accomplish that.
Spence vs. Porter odds
Since this fight was signed, Spence has consistently been a solid betting favorite, usually somewhere between -800 and -1000. For most of this week, Spence was on the lower end of that scale, as a -800 favorite. But in the past day or so, more of the money apparently has come in on him, because as of this writing, Spence is -1000. That means you’d have to bet $1,000 to win $100. Porter, meanwhile, is +600, meaning you’d earn $600 with a $100 wager.
The over-under on rounds fought for the 12-rounder is 11.5, meaning it’s expected to go the distance. The under on that wager is +160, and the over is -195.
Spence vs. Porter prediction
Porter is going to make this fight tough for Spence, and he might make it the hardest challenge of Spence’s career. But in the end, Spence is going to out-box him and avoid too much trouble on the inside. Porter is too tough to get stopped by Spence, but I’ll go with Spence by unanimous decision—somewhere in the 117-111 range. But the more that I think about it, the more I’d be tempted to take Porter at +600 just to see what would happen.