So, rewatched Pac/Thurman again because I was bored. I haven’t looked at the numbers, but I’m pretty sure Thurman landed less than 20 jabs in that fight. He did next to nothing with the jab, and I noticed that Pac was able to take the jab away by feinting the right hook. Thurman was leery of that counter so he never really committed to the jab or trying to control the distance with it. I don’t think Spence will have that issue because he has the better jab, and has a longer reach than Thurman.
Also, at this stage in his career Manny is way more effective when he’s coming at you. If you can get him going backwards he’s a lot less dangerous. Thurman would get Manny going backwards, but start conceding position when Pac would throw flurries and let him regain control of the round. With that being said, Thurman hurt Pac a lot. Especially in the 11th round. Pac is a cagey veteran, though. He’s not a guy that’s going to wobble all over the ring if he’s hurt or something.
Lastly, Thurman’s whole offense was basically counter hooks. I do worry that Spence has a tendency to “shell up” on defense. If you shell up on Manny, he’s not like most boxers that left you off the hook because they’re worried about something coming back at them after they throw 2-3 punches. Manny keeps punching until you do something to get out of that shell.
How Manny fights, I think he will always be susceptible to overhand punches word to JMM, but those aren’t punches that Spence throws a lot. I do think Spence will control Manny way better with the jab. He’s not going to be able to just dart in and out on Spence in the early rounds like he was doing Thurman. As far as a stoppage, it just depends on how cleanly he’s connecting on Pac. If he’s connecting sharply early, I think he’ll wear him down and get him outta there. If it’s one of those fights where 2-3 clean punches get landed a round early, I think Pac will go 12. He’s a tough fukker.