What in the way Tony makes over OC and books in general makes you believe Swerve has a chance of winning? He doesn't change plans when his mind is made up and anyone who's been watching AEW knows that. He'll go through whatever plan he has for OC which is probably having him go after MJF once he (MJF) beats Cole. Now I would love to see Swerve win, he's got "it" but I don't trust Tony's booking anymore. So I'll have to disagree with you.
I'm fine if you think OC is 100% winning. My main point isn't about that. It's about thinking the allure of a title match relies on not knowing who wins. That's bullshyt to me because as fans, we know the result of a title match waaay more often than not and we only complain about it when we don't like that obvious result, and not because it was a forgone conclusion but because we wanted the other outcome to happen.
Regarding the IC belt. After the Battle Royale at DoN, I think any AEW wrestler that's in the uppermicard has a chance of beating OC. They've been running with the story of Orange getting beat up and tired/injured with these weekly title defenses and beating 20 people at the BR is the culmination of that. At this point, he's protected to any L he takes, specially against a heel like Swerve. Do I think it's "obvious" OC is losing? No, he could very well retain. But I can totally see Swerve continuing his recent push by cheating and beating OC tonight