"Lots of independents"...would you like to put a number on that
538: Trump’s Approval Rating Is Incredibly Steady. Is That Weird Or The New Normal?
- Thread starter acri1
- Start date
To be fair that's more voters than Bush or McCain, and just as much as Romney.Exactly. On top of that, his base isn't increasing at all. Those 63 million hardcore supporters for Trump is probably as good as it gets for him. Ever. He couldn't convert a non-voter or a Dem to like him, much less vote for him and his party. Not once did you hear a Dem say "I Hated his guts in 2016, but I like him now in 2020 because he made good policy."
So Iowa -10 only amounts to a statistical tie versus most of the Dem candidates.
Which is encouraging actually. Warren, Booker, Bernie, Kloubachar have been talking anti-trust and infrastructure plans for rural farm states.
We have to be honest. Obama won Iowa twice cause he ran against NAFTA, agribusiness monopolization and the crushing of small farmers. Rural areas have been crushed and nothing was done about it.
Tom Vilsack, (his Secretary of Agriculture) is now a lobbyist for big dairy.
Smoking With Cigarettes
Superstar
Its tough to really gauge 45s support because there's a lot more than just voters liking him that went into him getting elected. Im of the opinion McCain would've washed Hillary, but I have no stats to back that up. I dont think cheeto would've beat Bernie, there was just nothing about Hillary that inspired people. Folks are stupid and fell for pea-brained, loud mouth. I feel like history will repeat if someone like, say Kamala Harris, gets the nominee. I like the policies I hear from Warren, but Id prefer our next president be under 50. That said, Id support a literal monkey over Trump. I bet the monkey would do way less damage to the environment
there's nothing to gauge and it doesn't take an opinion. There are voter records that identify these things. X million independents voted for Trump. It's a easy to find number.
Smoking With Cigarettes
Superstar
Voting for someone =/= their base. Protest votes, votes for a status quo upheavel, and general dissatisfaction with Hillary contributed more to his election that most news outlets care to aknowledge. He lost the popular vote by millions and has continued to alienate as many groups of people as he can. I dont believe its realistic to think hes retained every person that voted for him. A perfect storm elected Trump, and he will do everything in his power to recreate those conditions. So long as the Dems dont put up another establishment whore, they stand a much better chance than people want to admit
Although a good spinoff thread would be asking TLR posters who voted for him in 2016 if they'll vote for him again
Also, a lot of "independents" are really just Republicans.
They may say they're independent if you ask but they vote Republican every election.
And now, all those Midwestern states have Dem governors and Dem representatives. They WILL watch the votes to make sure they not surpressed. They all used to have Republican governors in 2016.
Emerson Polling
When Trump is matched up against potential Democratic challengers, all fall within the margin of error, except when President Trump faces Biden or Sanders. (Sample size n=808, +/- 3.4%)
Biden 55%/ Trump 45%
Sanders 55%/ Trump 45%
Warren 52%/ Trump 48%
Harris 51%/ Trump 48%
O’Rourke 51%/ Trump 49%
no one is getting "moderate republicans"
we gotta stop tryna focus on winning these nikkas over
U gotta get ur base locked down, and lock in those left-leaning independents
Dudes will be surprised who comes out of hiding if the Dems can get a good turnout.
ExodusNirvana
Change is inevitable...
Dems ain't turning out unless it's Biden, Bernie or Warren so now what?
I mean it's crystal clear that the others are likeable but not likeable enough to win the WH
Interesting