I think there is a path to Willow losing and still being a big time face by having her chase Mercedes for the belt. Especially if her "supposed friend" turns on her at the ppv, garnering even more sympathy from the crowd. It would be on Tony though to keep the momentum going and not just have Willow fade into the Rampage background like so many others.
Maybe do Willow vs Statlander, then a couple others before an immediate rematch so that by the time it happens the AEW faithful will really want to see Willow get her revenge.
I don't trust Snowman with the women's booking to do that. DMD will be back soon. Jamie Hayter will be back eventually. Shida will eventually return back from her ROH hell hole. Julia Hart will eventually comeback. Sky Blue is slowly gaining traction to being a legitimate title threat. Thunder Rosa is sitting there. Statlander can easily get thrown back in there too. Mariah May is getting some burn as a babyface. Anna Jay has shown signs of improving. Riho Lesnar will randomly pop up.
Willow is popular, but she lost to Jade like three times during her run. Every mid-tier wrestler can't keep fukking losing if you want to make a new star. That's my point. Willow is at her peak right now. Her losing the title and waffling for the next few months being unable to win hurts her. Willow beating Sasha on a bigger stage cements her as a top tier women's wrestler going forward. Sasha's star power allows her to fall back and pick up wins & keep harassing Willow until she wins the title at Forbidden Door, All In or All Out by cheating (maybe Stokely turns there). Then Willow is an established star in the women's division and can move onto potentially going after the other belt or having another high profile feud with DMD, Toni Storm, Hayter or help build someone else like Sky Blue.
Repeating Jade's title run with Sasha in there instead helps no one.
Edit - Plus the kayfabe reason for Willow beating Sasha is there too. She hasn't wrestled in over a year and her first match is against the champ who knocked her out of commission for the year. Willow being her kryptonite isn't farfetched.