2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House
- Thread starter FAH1223
- Start date
Smoking With Cigarettes
Superstar
What makes you think all 60 million of those views are Americans that can vote? Or am I expecting too much by assuming you put any thought into this
You responding to someone that thinks each view equals a unique person?
Smoking With Cigarettes
Superstar
I just voted for the Khive. Lady said turnout was good. Saw a lot more young people than I would expect. I’m guessing Election Day will have a heavy pickup because it *seems* only ~1k voted so far. At the city hall location. Can’t speak for the other locations
If you filter this down (people outside of the US, people under 18, repeat clicks, bots, etc)
There's I would think 5-10 million eligible unique voters there. I would bet almost all of them already had their mind made up or aren't voting.
CEO of Morgan Industries
Superstar
For some of y'all who are jumpy, I do get it, especially if you lived through 2016 and even 2020, where it was closer than the polls had figured. I'm jumpy even though I feel reasonably good about Kamala's chances even with all the conservative fukkery going on.
But I would remind people who are jumpy of a couple things:
Obviously, Trump can win because he has a path. But it's a narrow one, and he is working his ass off to make it narrower with every campaign event. Everything went just right for him in 2016, and he barely won. Kamala is in an objectively better position than he is. She can lose from that position, but it's going to take pretty much everything going right for Trump again as it did eight years ago, and from what we can tell with some early vote data and even some of these polls that aren't herding basically moving to Kamala, it's going to be harder for him to get what he needs than it was in 2016.
I always mentally prep for a Trump victory, but I also try not to let that color what we're seeing right now. He can win, but it's going to be harder for him than it was in 2020, when he lost, much less than it was for him in 2016. Demographics have finally started to move against him in response to the new voters he activated via the MAGA movement's beginnings in 2015 based on the data we've been able to gather across the last few years.
But I would remind people who are jumpy of a couple things:
- So far, we've seen polls moving back toward Kamala in the last ten days, whereas in 2016, they moved toward Trump in the last ten days.
- They moved toward Trump in 2016 because of the Comey letter. Biden's comments are not in any way the level of damaging as the Comey letter.
- Trump made it closer than the polling in 2020, but still lost. There is a reasonable suggestion that he won in 2016 and kept it close in 2020 by maxing or near maxing out his voter base. He's got less room to grow his base in 2024 than Kamala has to grow hers, especially with women, and...
- ...the polls missed way to the right in 2022 because they underestimated how many women came over to vote for Democrats.
- I think it's worth noting that in 2022, in the middle of an inflationary period and the start of tech layoffs, the Dems held onto the Senate and nearly won the house. In a midterm. With a Dem as POTUS. That is, let's put it this way, extraordinary. It seems like economic concerns have been backseated in a lot of voters minds for concerns about their rights/culture wars, and that probably hasn't changed that much in two years.
Obviously, Trump can win because he has a path. But it's a narrow one, and he is working his ass off to make it narrower with every campaign event. Everything went just right for him in 2016, and he barely won. Kamala is in an objectively better position than he is. She can lose from that position, but it's going to take pretty much everything going right for Trump again as it did eight years ago, and from what we can tell with some early vote data and even some of these polls that aren't herding basically moving to Kamala, it's going to be harder for him to get what he needs than it was in 2016.
I always mentally prep for a Trump victory, but I also try not to let that color what we're seeing right now. He can win, but it's going to be harder for him than it was in 2020, when he lost, much less than it was for him in 2016. Demographics have finally started to move against him in response to the new voters he activated via the MAGA movement's beginnings in 2015 based on the data we've been able to gather across the last few years.
iceberg_is_on_fire
Wearing Lions gear when it wasn't cool
2Cacalypse Now
Rookie
You can juelzspin this however you want but Kamala not doing Rogan when it gets views like that will be looked at as an election decider if trump wins
Smack, who is this nikka?
CEO of Morgan Industries
Superstar
I think so many of us are off-Twitter now that we can't see the thread commentary. If you don't mind, can you unspool the thread commentary for us?
