2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[FAH1223]

Can't believe we're only a week out.

I hope it's not another 2016 I just don't know if America is going to elect a black woman

It’s not 2016 breh

Trump can absolutely win but the complacency by libs isn’t there.

 

[Poetical Poltergeist]

And all this mania will be amplified on twitter. I just wonder how long Elon will publicly play that game. Will he simply become an election denier or will he jump off the ramp at whatever point Trump goes to far (calls for violence, demands for military intervention, etc)

He will dispatch his AI robots into action

 

[MAKAVELI25]

I feel pretty good about where Kamala is at.

She's always had a higher ceiling than Trump and he's effectively been chipping away at his ~46% for over a month now. Though I know the campaigns have to address the data (polling internal mostly, little external), a lot of the minority support Trump is said to have gained will pan out as people who won't vote or people who will still ultimately vote with Kamala.

Again, I want to show humility because I've been wrong before and I can easily be wrong again. And obviously, the current environment is better for Republicans because of the immigration, inflation, and arguably, perceptions about crime.

However, I think the Trump campaign's strategy of relying on low propensity voters, and also outsourcing turnout/organization is probably going to lead to a blowout:

• The gender gap is disastrous for Trump, not only because the gender gap amongst female voters (in Kamala's favor) is bigger than the one amongst males (in Trump's favor), but also because women are more likely to turn out than men
• Biden then, and Kamala now, are both doing better with older people, who are also more likely to turn out than younger people
• Biden then, and Kamala now, do better with highly information, politically engaged citizens. Also more likely to turn out than the vice versa. Trump thrives on low information voters who don't get their news from traditional news sources.
• Tied in to the above point, educated voters (also likely to be more politically engaged), who are now more likely to support Democrats, and more likely to turn out than vice versa
• We are now seeing polls that say Independents are breaking towards Kamala
• We are also seeing polls that say that she may be doing better with Black and Latino men than we previously assumed based on polling

I think she is going to win this election and the current polling is underestimating her support.

 

[Piff Huxtable]

Where’s Ali Alexander at?

Scammy Davis Jr.

 

[iceberg_is_on_fire]

Again, I want to show humility because I've been wrong before and I can easily be wrong again. And obviously, the current environment is better for Republicans because of the immigration, inflation, and arguably, perceptions about crime.

However, I think the Trump campaign's strategy of relying on low propensity voters, and also outsourcing turnout/organization is probably going to lead to a blowout:

• The gender gap is disastrous for Trump, not only because the gender gap amongst female voters (in Kamala's favor) is bigger than the one amongst males (in Trump's favor), but also because women are more likely to turn out than men
• Biden then, and Kamala now, are both doing better with older people, who are also more likely to turn out than younger people
• Biden then, and Kamala now, do better with highly information, politically engaged citizens. Also more likely to turn out than the vice versa. Trump thrives on low information voters who don't get their news from traditional news sources.
• Tied in to the above point, educated voters (also likely to be more politically engaged), who are now more likely to support Democrats, and more likely to turn out than vice versa
• We are now seeing polls that say Independents are breaking towards Kamala
• We are also seeing polls that say that she may be doing better with Black and Latino men than we previously assumed based on polling

I think she is going to win this election and the current polling is underestimating her support.

I agree with everything you've said.

 

[iceberg_is_on_fire]

Very good prediction.

 

[Outlaw]

DJT stock is on a massive bull run despite momentum swinging back Kamala’s way. Looks it could be a massive pump and dumb from smart money

 

[King Static X]

Let's hope this is the final result in Michigan

 

[Big Jo]

DJT stock is on a massive bull run despite momentum swinging back Kamala’s way. Looks it could be a massive pump and dumb from smart money

1000% pump and dump and gonna be worth $5 or less in 2 weeks

part of me thought about throwing money in it to make a few bucks yesterday but off GP i don't want to make any money off trump's stench ever

 

[CEO of Morgan Industries]

Well, polling moving back toward Kamala during the last week is a good sign.

As are polls where she hits 50+%.

 

[Loose]

Where’s Ali Alexander at?

Came out as a gay pedophile, ducking federal indictments

 

[Smoking With Cigarettes]

The most shocking thing I've learned from this MSG debacle is Tony Henchcliffe is straight

 

[jerniebert]

They're so bad at this.

 

[Big Jo]

Again, I want to show humility because I've been wrong before and I can easily be wrong again. And obviously, the current environment is better for Republicans because of the immigration, inflation, and arguably, perceptions about crime.

However, I think the Trump campaign's strategy of relying on low propensity voters, and also outsourcing turnout/organization is probably going to lead to a blowout:

• The gender gap is disastrous for Trump, not only because the gender gap amongst female voters (in Kamala's favor) is bigger than the one amongst males (in Trump's favor), but also because women are more likely to turn out than men
• Biden then, and Kamala now, are both doing better with older people, who are also more likely to turn out than younger people
• Biden then, and Kamala now, do better with highly information, politically engaged citizens. Also more likely to turn out than the vice versa. Trump thrives on low information voters who don't get their news from traditional news sources.
• Tied in to the above point, educated voters (also likely to be more politically engaged), who are now more likely to support Democrats, and more likely to turn out than vice versa
• We are now seeing polls that say Independents are breaking towards Kamala
• We are also seeing polls that say that she may be doing better with Black and Latino men than we previously assumed based on polling

I think she is going to win this election and the current polling is underestimating her support.

Agree with everything but I'd suggest on bullet point #2 young people turn out is going to be high and sharply lean Dem. I think Gen Z/tik tok turnout will be huge honestly. There was a massive spike in voter registration after Harris announced her run which assumes relatively young first time voters. I'd be surprised if Taylor Swift didn't net another 50k or so net new voters with her endorsement.

My cousin for example is freshman at University of Michigan and she registered to vote in Michigan specifically (based in CT). her friends went to the Harris/Eminem rally. this kinda dynamic is going to smash turnout records I'm lead to believe.

I actually have less faith in older people, who may vote for Trump with antiquated world views that a (black) woman is not Presidential, vs. a known entity aka another senior citizen like Trump or Biden - just talking out loud, I could be off base there. I haven't looked at senior citizen voting demographics specifically recently.

 

[Slim]

They're so bad at this.

Is that really their latest adl!?? The footage is all from the 2020 election.

Flags say Trump and Pence. And the folks are saying "Keep" America Great.